Torch Tiger Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Cold snowy October/November..we know where that path usually leads. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: Cold snowy October/November..we know where that path usually leads. They both could be AN, def Oct. Also not sold on a big trough in the east just yet, I see plenty of WAR resistance with a mean trough near the lakes. Would be an active pattern but mostly mild or near normal averaged out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: Cold snowy October/November..we know where that path usually leads. Really hurt us last year when it started snowing in October. Record snow depth achieved in November and again in January, maxing above 120” in March/April. Start the snowpack early and it usually means good things. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Really hurt us last year when it started snowing in October. Record snow depth achieved in November and again in January, maxing above 120” in March/April. Start the snowpack early and it usually means good things. How did you get out of your house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: How did you get out of your house? Fire escape . Early snow is great snow. Lay that base and lay it thick. Didn’t see the lawn for a solid 5 months. Bring it on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Really hurt us last year when it started snowing in October. Record snow depth achieved in November and again in January, maxing above 120” in March/April. Start the snowpack early and it usually means good things. I don't want to correlate northern mountain sub-climate with SNE populations, you could be right. In fact I'm going with a decent winter for NNE resorts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 There is an old saying we use up here on a regular basis, Its called, Early and often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: I don't want to correlate northern mountain sub-climate with SNE populations, you could be right. In fact I'm going with a decent winter for NNE resorts. I just think the October snow stuff is foo-foo even in SNE populations. I get the stats with extremely limited sample sizes...but just wait till that winter where it snows 4” on Halloween then 100+ the rest of the winter, ha. In the NNE mountains it makes sense there’s no correlation as it snows a lot more regularly in October...and a wide variety of winters follow. No precursor indicator. October mountain snow is like November snow in SNE. Maybe there’s a September snow correlation in the NNE mtns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: They both could be AN, def Oct. Also not sold on a big trough in the east just yet, I see plenty of WAR resistance with a mean trough near the lakes. Would be an active pattern but mostly mild or near normal averaged out. Every model and ensembles have a turn to cooler weather by end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: I just think the October snow stuff is foo-foo even in SNE populations. I get the stats with extremely limited sample sizes...but just wait till that winter where it snows 4” on Halloween then 100+ the rest of the winter, ha. In the NNE mountains it makes sense there’s no correlation as it snows a lot more regularly in October...and a wide variety of winters follow. No precursor indicator. Maybe it is voodoo, you are the winter/snow fella and I'll defer. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Maybe it is voodoo, you are the winter/snow fella and I'll defer. Lol 2002-03 my last winter living down south we had 2-3” near ALB in October, then followed with 100”+ winter and months of snow cover. Everyone remembers 2011-12 though as the Oct snow vs winter snow correlation. Maybe it’s >12” in October is bad news? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 2002-03 my last winter living down south we had 2-3” near ALB in October, then followed with 100”+ winter and months of snow cover. Everyone remembers 2011-12 though as the Oct snow vs winter snow correlation. Maybe it’s >12” in October is bad news? Lol. I've posted the stats for ORH before which has a much larger sample of measurable October snow than a place like BOS. ORH October snow has no correlation with total winter snowfall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I've posted the stats for ORH before which has a much larger sample of measurable October snow than a place like BOS. ORH October snow has no correlation with total winter snowfall. Unless it is greater that 6” then it’s a ratter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Every model and ensembles have a turn to cooler weather by end of the month. The EPS out to 10 days doesn't show that at all. It has the mean trough in the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Unless it is greater that 6” then it’s a ratter Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Unless it is greater that 6” then it’s a ratter ding ding ding! Notice @ORH_wxman failed to mention that little tid bit! Although I doubt that has happened very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I've posted the stats for ORH before which has a much larger sample of measurable October snow than a place like BOS. ORH October snow has no correlation with total winter snowfall. Do positive departures Nov/Oct correlate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Just now, Whineminster said: ding ding ding! Notice @ORH_wxman failed to mention that little tid bit! So if we remove the 2 octobers that produced 6"+ snowstorms, we are left with a bunch of octobers that had measurable snow and produced an average winter of over 80". Therefore....we should root for October snow as long as it isn't a blockbuster over 6". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 15, 2019 Author Share Posted October 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Whineminster said: ding ding ding! Notice @ORH_wxman failed to mention that little tid bit! Although I doubt that has happened very often. Twice In recorded history as far as I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: Do positive departures Nov/Oct correlate? November temps correlate somewhat...we don't want a torch November....like +3 or more. That has a pretty bad track record. For ORH, here are the most recent Novembers that finished +3 or more 2015 2011 2009 2006 2003 2001 1999 1994 1982 1979 1975 Not a single blockbuster winter in those with plenty of full-on ratters. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 I see many bad dates that Will posted, I hope that's the last we see of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 Seems ORH is "due"! Kidding, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: November temps correlate somewhat...we don't want a torch November....like +3 or more. That has a pretty bad track record. For ORH, here are the most recent Novembers that finished +3 or more 2015 2011 2009 2006 2003 2001 1999 1994 1982 1979 1975 Not a single blockbuster winter in those with plenty of full-on ratters. Snowy Novies seem to generally lead to good winters in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snowy Novies seem to generally lead to good winters in SNE Makes sense, you are already getting inches of snow in the seasonal total. The more you can rack up early in the season, the better chance you have at a higher total by the end of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snowy Novies seem to generally lead to good winters in SNE Cept last year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Cept last year Didn’t we only have one snowfall last Nov? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Makes sense, you are already getting inches of snow in the seasonal total. The more you can rack up early in the season, the better chance you have at a higher total by the end of the season. Lol we only average 2 inches in Nov, top ten Novies for snow then following winter are split 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 15, 2019 Share Posted October 15, 2019 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Didn’t we only have one snowfall last Nov? Years where we had multiple and following winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: So if we remove the 2 octobers that produced 6"+ snowstorms, we are left with a bunch of octobers that had measurable snow and produced an average winter of over 80". Therefore....we should root for October snow as long as it isn't a blockbuster over 6". It would be the one and only time weenies under measure and root for the snow to stop...short of 6”. Like, “yes, I only have 5.25”...winter is saved.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Years were we had multiple and following winter? What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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