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October 2019 Weather Discussion

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16 hours ago, S&P said:

Videos from Portsmouth are from my neighborhood. Was at the gym at the time and got home after dark so didn’t see any damage but was rerouted to my house because utility poles down. 

Are you down below St. Barnabas?

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25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Confirmed 

When i saw that yesterday i said wow, Front came thru here with little fanfare then i read that BOX should investigate for a possible TOR and said to myself, Wouldn't GYX be responsible in Portsmouth not knowing it was Portsmouth RI...............lol

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Looks like another couple frost shots FRI-SAT night up here, Should finish off the bugs and veggies that survived the last two.

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Multiple reports from staff and guests of frozen precip at the top of the Gondola (picnic tables)....sounds like snow grains or IP from the description.  Just the leading edge of precip so evap cooling processes are taking over for a minute before it saturates and goes to rain.

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 Euro should bust a little high on  it’s calls from earlier in the week for  W MA  precipitation totals.  Not even .10”  so far this week here. I can’t see tonight being more than .25”

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3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

First flakes in 10 days on the 12z GFS?

 

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Tables?

 

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

2nd time for them, after tonight.

Yeah, it seems like the higher Whites are essentially a lock for snow with this upcoming event, but the Greens could easily get flakes as well.

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45.7/40F   ( can't find any reporting station lower in New England right now)

Light rain shower began 20 minutes ago.  Started out with some fairly large drops mixed with some ice pellets.  I wasn't going to post it since you guys probably would think I was nuts but I see Mt Washington is reporting IP too.  Guess if drops were big enough they could fall through 5000 feet of 40's without totally melting?

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44 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

45.7/40F   ( can't find any reporting station lower in New England right now)

Light rain shower began 20 minutes ago.  Started out with some fairly large drops mixed with some ice pellets.  I wasn't going to post it since you guys probably would think I was nuts but I see Mt Washington is reporting IP too.  Guess if drops were big enough they could fall through 5000 feet of 40's without totally melting?

A few posts above you I said the same thing was happening at Stowe.  Staff on the Zipline reported the initial frozen precip made it pretty damn low (2,200ft).  Lasted for 10-15 minutes up at 3,600ft before going to rain.

Your temps seem similar to here. It’s low-40s up at 1,500ft and upper 40s down in the valley.

BFEB1683-73BB-473D-980C-EB1F97AB7C76.thumb.jpeg.87217a21af24d12ec9b605db936b227b.jpeg

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Multiple reports from staff and guests of frozen precip at the top of the Gondola (picnic tables)....sounds like snow grains or IP from the description.  Just the leading edge of precip so evap cooling processes are taking over for a minute before it saturates and goes to rain.

 

1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

Yeah, it seems like the higher Whites are essentially a lock for snow with this upcoming event, but the Greens could easily get flakes as well.

Excellent. It begins. 

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It’s certainly possible is there is big one evaporational cooking happening above 950 which I’m sure there is. I haven’t looked at a sounding, but my guess is that you’ll see that. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s certainly possible is there is big one evaporational cooking happening above 950 which I’m sure there is. I haven’t looked at a sounding, but my guess is that you’ll see that. 

Yeah the sounding looked real dry as that precip rolled in.  Pretty easy to get some ice pellets initially down low before it goes all rain.  

This looks like massive evap cooling in the low levels (sounding 18z today near Stowe):  Not hard to envision some frozen immediately at the start as that saturates.

F3F6BAB6-7E36-47D4-BB4A-72993426251D.thumb.png.b031f98c9d6f8f7e9934dd6d82f05403.png

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That sounding doesn’t really show a funny warm layer either. Probably heavily rimed flakes making it down?

See the next sounding has a good warm nose aloft.  The precip occurred like halfway between that sounding and this one... I wonder if it timed it such that the 750mb warm layer was already above 0C and the wet bulb cooling below that caused refreezing?  Or they were just mangled rimed flakes?  No one I talked to said “snow” though...it bounced off jackets  and sounded like ice pellets from what folks said (though not weather educated).

3C7A389C-FE6E-4B4D-AB2B-0D275288A6B3.thumb.png.12a59680056acd27a2c10054957aa8e3.png

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Multiple reports from staff and guests of frozen precip at the top of the Gondola (picnic tables)....sounds like snow grains or IP from the description.  Just the leading edge of precip so evap cooling processes are taking over for a minute before it saturates and goes to rain.

Let it begin! Looks like A-Basin out in CO has turned the snow guns on and Killington was testing there guns yesterday. Looks cold enough to turn them on tomorrow night but doubt they do with the way the rest of the week looks. 

 

10-2-19 2.jpg

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Graupel

I think of that as more convective and you get that high DBZ core on radar.  Can you get graupel out of weak radar echos from a mid-level cloud deck?

Doesnt matter but I know ski area employees and if it was snow they would’ve lost their mind.  It was something frozen that wasn’t snow lol.

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I think of that as more convective and you get that high DBZ core on radar.  Can you get graupel out of weak radar echos from a mid-level cloud deck?
Doesnt matter but I know ski area employees and if it was snow they would’ve lost their mind.  It was something frozen that wasn’t snow lol.


Well it was some type of ice pellet by the sounds of it, I was thinking more of flakes that partially melted before refreezing passing thru a warm layer rather then just straight sleet.



.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s certainly possible is there is big one evaporational cooking happening above 950 which I’m sure there is. I haven’t looked at a sounding, but my guess is that you’ll see that. 

MWN has been bone dry at times today. 

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12 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Let it begin! Looks like A-Basin out in CO has turned the snow guns on and Killington was testing there guns yesterday. Looks cold enough to turn them on tomorrow night but doubt they do with the way the rest of the week looks. 

 

10-2-19 2.jpg

Meh. A place in New Jersey started snowmaking last week.  

 

 

Of course it was indoors...

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MWN has been bone dry at times today. 

You aren’t kidding ha.  

Last 2 hours:  

39/5 -IP

36/28 -IP

36/-4  currently 

The dew point went from 28F to -4F when the shower ended lol.  I’m not sure I’ve seen that.

 

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48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

See the next sounding has a good warm nose aloft.  The precip occurred like halfway between that sounding and this one... I wonder if it timed it such that the 750mb warm layer was already above 0C and the wet bulb cooling below that caused refreezing?  Or they were just mangled rimed flakes?  No one I talked to said “snow” though...it bounced off jackets  and sounded like ice pellets from what folks said (though not weather educated).

3C7A389C-FE6E-4B4D-AB2B-0D275288A6B3.thumb.png.12a59680056acd27a2c10054957aa8e3.png

So what happened is what you described. The warm layer aloft races in, but lower elevation remained able to sustain low wetbulbs and probably refreezes. Of course modeling can be off too, but I bet that is what occurred. 

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So what happened is what you described. The warm layer aloft races in, but lower elevation remained able to sustain low wetbulbs and probably refreezes. Of course modeling can be off too, but I bet that is what occurred. 

Ha and now I’m seeing video from someone else that was at the top of the Gondola and it looks very much like wet flakes.  

Who knows, bottom line is the Picnic Tables had their first frozen precip.  

I also saw a report from 1,800ft in Underhill (west side of Mansfield) of frozen precip but didn’t call it snow.  Fits with what we’ve been talking about. 

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