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Tyler Penland

2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.

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I’d say we had the best snow event of the season here in Boone last night/this morning. About 1.5” but it dumped pretty hard this morning around 7:30am. Once the sun came out it cut right through all of it though. The roads were clear and dry within a few hours of the snow stopping. The sun and dry air are an incredible combo.

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It's a lot warmer than i expected even in Asheville its not that bad. Mid 40's when they forecasted 30's. Looks like there was a good dusting here but it was pretty much gone by 8 a.m. I expect similar amounts tomorrow here 

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Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville,
Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, and Sylva
250 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2-4 inches,
  with peaks above 5000 feet seeing up to 6-8 inches.

* WHERE...Mountains of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to noon EST Saturday.
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7 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Not a bad forecast at all. Not impressed by the 18z NAM run but everything looks to be game on from here on out.

Is the 32km better in these situations than the finer grid versions?  I always thought the 3km and 12km would handle these situations better with variations in topography and their finer resolution, and I take of mean of what all three show...but I could be wrong...and if I am I'd like to know! 

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10 minutes ago, Met1985 said:
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust,
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck,
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser,
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Robbinsville,
Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, and Sylva
250 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2-4 inches,
  with peaks above 5000 feet seeing up to 6-8 inches.
.
* WHERE...Mountains of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to noon EST Saturday.

was hoping Buncombe would get in on that, this morning definitely over performed, a nice surprise.  schools were even out.  so much for not really going to get any this morning,  :snowwindow:

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Just now, Buckethead said:

New map from GSP.96cadd3fdbd458210d0fd3fa938ff4bd.jpg

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

looks like GSP still isn't excited or just playing it cool for a while, tomorrow evening Saturday morning looks like Buncombe could get some.

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4 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Is the 32km better in these situations than the finer grid versions?  I always thought the 3km and 12km would handle these situations better with variations in topography and their finer resolution, and I take of mean of what all three show...but I could be wrong...and if I am I'd like to know! 

You know with these type of events and the topography of our landscape it is really hard to nail down these localized type events. For the most part I do like you are talking about. Take a mean average of the models and go from there.  The problem is that the NWF can do wonders enhancing the flow and really dumping in certain areas especially all the micro climates we have and throw in drastic changes in elevation in a short range then it makes things that much harder. Thats why the NWS kind of broad brushes us with there forecast.  Its just too complex to nail down just one site at a time especially with specific wind trajectories,  which can make the difference from me getting 4 inches to just 1 inch. Upslope snow here is one that is ever changing during the event and can be a real pain to forecast not to mention looking at the layers of the atmosphere to figure out just how much moisture is there to really get the flow going or not going. 

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The deal with the NWF is that you have moisture then the mountains make there own moisture.  Sometimes its a wait and see game because there are so many pieces that are being put together to cause upslope snow here.

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Ended up with a little over 3 inches this morning. I had a high today of 24.6 so not much melted except in the real sunny places. Wind has seemed to calmed down little but still quite breezy. Lets see what tomorrow might bring. I'll take a repeat of last night in a heartbeat this winter.

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Been a busy day.  I like to use the 3km, it is my model of choice with upslope.. but even it is wrong sometimes.  Here is my map for this event that I am about to post.

ProjectedSnowfallMapFeb28th-29th.png

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From GSP...

.........We hesitate to call it NW Flow because the flow has a much
more westerly component to it..... 

This is not good for my mountain. Usually cuts my totals quite a bit. But you North Georgia and Upstate peeps get some love...

........Some of the guidance is showing
the potential for something more across northeast GA and the western
Upstate (again!), to the left of the track of a vort center dropping
down through the upper trof early Saturday morning......

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1 minute ago, SnoJoe said:

From GSP...

.........We hesitate to call it NW Flow because the flow has a much
more westerly component to it..... 

This is not good for my mountain. Usually cuts my totals quite a bit. But you North Georgia and Upstate peeps get some love...

........Some of the guidance is showing
the potential for something more across northeast GA and the western
Upstate (again!), to the left of the track of a vort center dropping
down through the upper trof early Saturday morning......

They basically said the same thing for last night's nwf too.  Hold out hope, Joe!

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Just now, MotoWeatherman said:

If the 18z GFS is remotely right on the new QPF to come, the blue area is 5+ inches of NEW snow.  Coming in 2 rounds Friday AM and the Friday night.  Enjoy everyone.   This isnt a model snow map but straight QPF. 

gfs-deterministic-charlotte-total_precip_inch-2995600.png

Looks pretty dang good to me.

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7 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

If the 18z GFS is remotely right on the new QPF to come, the blue area is 5+ inches of NEW snow.  Coming in 2 rounds Friday AM and the Friday night.  Enjoy everyone.   This isnt a model snow map but straight QPF. 

gfs-deterministic-charlotte-total_precip_inch-2995600.png

Or maybe more depending on ratio. That snow last night had to be 15 to 20/1.

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It will be an interesting day tomorrow in Asheville. NWS calls for some rain in the valley with a high in the 40s. 

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Yall ever sleep? Really liking the model trends this evening. Going to assume some of the banding is overdone, but some decent rates pop up at times on the Nam and HRRR. Let's do it again!

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Thundersnow?

000 FXUS62 KGSP 280305 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1005 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2020

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Aside from the mountain snow totals, the other major issue will be rapidly steepening mid-level lapse rates as the upper shortwave crosses the southern Appalachians Friday. Anticipate plenty of 7+ deg C/km 850 to 500 mb lapse rates transiting the region.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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