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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2019 OBS Thread

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4 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Holy crap!!!  That was crazy.  Fairly certain this was tornado  I have video 

F878B766-8B3E-40AF-A2AC-1A6FF6751CA5.png

Impressive! It looks like an area of strong, straight-line winds going off of the velocity on radar... The portion that hit you, at least! I was wondering if those winds were mixing to the ground, or if they weren't... I'd like to hear more confirmation, but those strong winds aloft are serious. 

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Have two storms closing in near me near Coatesville. Worried about hail. Sky looks angry, lots of scud moving around under the cloud deck.

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6 minutes ago, Treckasec said:

Impressive! It looks like an area of strong, straight-line winds going off of the velocity on radar... The portion that hit you, at least! I was wondering if those winds were mixing to the ground, or if they weren't... I'd like to hear more confirmation, but those strong winds aloft are serious. 

I thought straight line as well but winds in my backyard were coming at different directions.  The video I have is of the end of the winds.  Straight sounded like a jet engine 

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Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

Getting an EAS on phone for Flash Flood Warning (here in Philly).

Same. About to get hit with all that rain near Coatesville. Luckily, I think I'm no longer in any danger of hail; unluckily, my wife is trying to get home from Exton and the 30 is guaranteed to be a parking lot.

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4 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Same. About to get hit with all that rain near Coatesville. Luckily, I think I'm no longer in any danger of hail; unluckily, my wife is trying to get home from Exton and the 30 is guaranteed to be a parking lot.

I saw that about 7 miles north of me where Willow Grove had a bunch of reports of 1" hail.  I know I have not seen hail here in Philly in years (almost since I was a kid).  I think the heat island melts the ice before it hits the ground here in the city so I usually get huge rain drops.

Now up to 1.26" of rain since around 6 pm (still @ 1"/hr).

ETA - my sis who lives in Wyndmoor just texted a pic of the front of her house that is flooded (her driveway slopes down to the front of the house based on how the hill slopes where the houses are on her side of the street).

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11 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

Holy crap!!!  That was crazy.  Fairly certain this was tornado  I have video 

F878B766-8B3E-40AF-A2AC-1A6FF6751CA5.png

Didn't see a tornado but there was clear rotation in the clouds down in levittown. Hell of a storm. 

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4 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Holy crap!!!  That was crazy.  Fairly certain this was tornado  I have video 

F878B766-8B3E-40AF-A2AC-1A6FF6751CA5.png

Missed my house by about a half mile. Isolated/localized damage. 

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That was a not so bad storm.  Nothing severe, but some good lightning and heavy rain.  0.66" of rain so far.  

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Down to some sprinkles now and and saw the sky brightening just before an attempt at a sunset. So far up to 1.55" from the storms.  There were some wind gusts and a good amount of loud thunder, but this was mostly very heavy rain, with about 15 minutes of 3"/hr rates. The storms were moving pretty quickly so fortunately they didn't stall out and train over the area.  It did manage to hit 89 here before the rain.  Currently overcast and 68.

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Work lost power. Hopefully the factory will be open tomorrow, PPL doesn't know yet. Supposedly the Quakertown tornado touched down in Fox Hollow golf course which is only about .25 miles from my work. I saw what I thought was just a rotating cell with no touch down. Shoulda chased it!

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Round 3 later today, then looking forward to some nice normal weather (!?) :sun:

My location has fared well last 2 nights. Very brief hail Tues night as super cells passed well to the north.  Last night down poured with little wind, no hail, only a brief power outage.  Northern New Castle County was hit with damage.  I'm not sure where to look on NWS page for reports to see if it was a tornado.  Stay safe out there!

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14 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

Round 3 later today, then looking forward to some nice normal weather (!?) :sun:

My location has fared well last 2 nights. Very brief hail Tues night as super cells passed well to the north.  Last night down poured with little wind, no hail, only a brief power outage.  Northern New Castle County was hit with damage.  I'm not sure where to look on NWS page for reports to see if it was a tornado.  Stay safe out there!

I haven't seen them post the very latest from last night's storm yet but here is a preliminary LSR for a tornado in Sussex County, NJ yesterday - https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXLSRPHI&wfo=phi

Quote
NWUS51 KPHI 300929
 LSRPHI
 
 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
 529 AM EDT THU MAY 30 2019
 
 ..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
 ..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
             ..REMARKS..
 
 0830 PM     TORNADO          STANHOPE                40.92N 74.70W
 05/28/2019                   SUSSEX             NJ   NWS STORM SURVEY 
 
             MAXIMUM EF SCALE RATING EF1 WITH ESTIMATED 
             MAXIMUM WINDS OF 100 MPH. 
 
 
 &&
 
 $$
 
 PF

Updated PNS for the 5/28/19 Morgantown & Stanhope tornadoes is here - https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXPNSPHI&wfo=phi

(they put these on their website under "Text Products" under the "Nonroutine Products" section - https://www.weather.gov/phi/ProductIndex

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another 5% tornado day.  looks like the morning fog/clouds are burning off here in Trenton so should get plenty of heating today. When's the last time we had 3 tornado watches in 3 straight days? Looks very possible that could occur.

 

3 km NAM looks nasty again this evening:

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16.png

 

RGEM sees a convection complex rolling through around the same time frame too

 

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16.png

 

The HRRR looks a little similar to yesterday, scattered storms out ahead of the main line with the potential for a few rounds of storms. Today could end up being a surprise day.

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_9.png

 

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So no tornado watch today but severe thunderstorm watch is coming our way soon

 

Quote
 Mesoscale Discussion 0897
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of the eastern WV Panhandle into
   central/eastern PA...much of NJ/MD/DE...DC...and northern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 301615Z - 301815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat will increase early this
   afternoon, with strong to damaging winds likely the main risk.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely by 17-18Z (1-2 PM EDT).

   DISCUSSION...A small perturbation embedded within fast mid-level
   westerly flow will likely act to initiate convection across the
   higher terrain of western PA/MD and eastern WV in the next hour or
   two. Recent visible satellite imagery shows increased vertical
   development in the cumulus field across this region. Diurnal heating
   downstream of this initial development is well underway for much of
   the Mid Atlantic to the south of a front draped generally east-west
   across PA. Even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor,
   MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg will likely develop by early afternoon as
   temperatures continue to warm into and through the 80s in
   conjunction with a moist low-level airmass. Westerly winds will
   quickly strengthen with height through mid levels, with 40-50 kt
   likely around 700 mb per RAP forecast soundings and from upstream
   VWPs (KPBZ/KRLX). Related 40-50+ kt of effective bulk shear will act
   to organize thunderstorms, and there is increasing concern that
   convection will grow upscale into a QLCS along/near the I-95
   corridor in northern VA, MD, and eastern PA. Damaging winds would be
   the main threat if this mainly linear mode develops, although
   isolated large hail may occur with more discrete initial
   development. The potential for a tornado or two may also exist,
   mainly across eastern PA into NJ where low-level flow will be
   slightly more backed to southerly/southeasterly in the vicinity of a
   marine front.

 

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Severe thunderstorm watch until 9 pm...spc specifically mentions us as an area that may see a tornado or two

 

Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 297
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   200 PM EDT Thu May 30 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Delaware
     Maryland
     New Jersey
     Southeast Pennsylvania
     Northern Virginia
     Eastern West Virginia Panhandle
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Initially discrete cells should consolidate into a
   fast-moving cluster. Damaging winds are the primary hazard. A
   tornado or two is possible, mainly across the Delaware Valley.

 

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Just now, Vice-Regent said:

Here are some pics from yesterday to keep us occupied while we wait. There was possibly a brief rain-wrapped waterspout. It is difficult to ascertain the peak intensity of this particular storm. Winds gusted to about 45mph on shore with visibility dropping to 1/8 mile.

(Looking west towards Delaware 5/29/19)

IMG_20190529_195007415.thumb.jpg.7d71e5df4ce87cefac0a667fdf993bac.jpgIMG_20190529_195004793.thumb.jpg.3914458cbcd12eb589bba744e4f38105.jpgIMG_20190529_194422450.thumb.jpg.9c3401d0b3783d98726cc691b2716454.jpgIMG_20190529_193724842.thumb.jpg.b26d67995a2aeb8c80e5b1605c47c6a0.jpg

 

 

 

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Barometer dropping rapidly. Very still today compared to the last two days, perhaps thats why there is a lower risk of tornados today. Wouldn't be surprised if there are more reports of severe hail today. It will be interesting to see if the second line holds together tonight. Forward velocity seems slower today. 

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