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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Uh...yeah...we had a little hail storm here tonight. Seeing the damage in the light of day is going to be ugly.

60280762_2471219686251039_7066244726986375168_n.jpg

US 24 and St Rd 5 North side of Huntington.jpg

Holy crap

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Ended up heading west later yesterday afternoon, to make a play on the OFB area turned triple point, with the cold front sliding southeast. The environment in this area was nice...With high CAPE, pooling of moisture with ~70F DP's and good shear. A stronger surface wind flow was lacking, however. Sat in Rochelle for a while with CU bubbling along the OFB/triple point just west. A storm quickly went up and tried to beat the cap, going severe and up to around ~55k tops within 15 minutes or so. Quickly headed WSW to make a play on it and reached it just west of Amboy, but it quickly died shortly after. Ended up calling it a chase at that point, with activity further west near the IL/IA border having little to no tor threat, and also struggling.

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oddday2.PNG.405ddc16aa861f4c733d2549c4499bb5.PNG

One of the odder looking probabilistic outlooks I've seen, with the sig area totally separate from the higher probs. This is the Day 2 outlook for tomorrow.

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18 minutes ago, The_Doctor said:

oddday2.PNG.405ddc16aa861f4c733d2549c4499bb5.PNG

One of the odder looking probabilistic outlooks I've seen, with the sig area totally separate from the higher probs. This is the Day 2 outlook for tomorrow.

Yeah, has to do with an MCS moving through in the morning/early afternoon, which will be less severe but more of a sure bet to happen.  And then a more conditional threat of supercells to the west which would have more significant severe.

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Hope we can get the cloud cover from the first line of storms to clear out before the secondary line gets going tomorrow.  The timing of these things has sucked for Central IN as of late.

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1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

Hope we can get the cloud cover from the first line of storms to clear out before the secondary line gets going tomorrow.  The timing of these things has sucked for Central IN as of late.

Yes, I have been focusing so much on OK for Monday that I have not had a chance to look at parameters here for our slight risk.

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12 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Yes, I have been focusing so much on OK for Monday that I have not had a chance to look at parameters here for our slight risk.

KIND disco...

Once the first batch of convection shifts east with the deeper
moisture plume and low level jet core however...numerous signs point
to a more conducive atmosphere for severe convection within a window
encompassing late afternoon into the early evening along and
immediately ahead of the cold front. Boundary layer flow while not
as strong as earlier in the day remains supportive for renewed
convective development. Diffluence aloft will enhance with the
arrival of the negatively tilted upper trough and a weak upper
jetlet will be in an ideal location to enhance convective
redevelopment. Of noted interest is the hint of a small wave
developing along the front by early evening which could conceivably
produce a short period with backed boundary layer flow and
consequently an axis of stronger BL shear and helicity immediately
ahead of the front. The lack of deeper moisture by late afternoon
may be a mitigating factor at least from a coverage standpoint but
CAPES levels to 1000 J/KG or greater would likely be enough
instability to generate a broken line of convection ahead of the
front...something being suggested by several of the CAMs.

While the setup is not nearly as clean as desired...the primary
severe weather threat will likely reside within this 4-6 hour
window from mid afternoon into the early evening as the initial
batch of convection shifts east followed by the broken line of
convection ahead of the frontal boundary. While damaging wind
gusts remain the primary threat considering the stronger flow in
the upper levels of the boundary layer...large hail and a few
tornadoes remain a possibility considering the increase in
directional shear setting up just ahead of the cold front.


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Satellite shows partial clearing now over central IL with a line of storms beginning to form from Quad Cities down to St. Louis area.  If clouds and convection can leave Indiana and the partial clearing occur over this region we may be on target for the svr storms in the 3-9 p.m. EDT period that IND was thinking.  We'll see what SPC has to say in the new Day 1 update shortly.

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Slight risk 

..IL into MI...
   A broad shield of clouds and associated precipitation is affecting
   much of eastern IL, IN, lower MI, and western Ohio.  Clearing will
   occur this afternoon in the wake of this system, leading to
   sufficient instability for the redevelopment of scattered
   thunderstorms.  Large scale forcing is weak in this region, and
   overall convective coverage/intensity is expected to be rather weak.
   Nevertheless, a few strong to severe storms are possible, capable of
   hail and damaging wind gusts.

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Surprise

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
254 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN MACOMB COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...  
  
* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.  
      
* AT 254 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED OVER ARMADA, OR NEAR RICHMOND, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45  
  MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  RICHMOND AROUND 300 PM EDT.  
  MEMPHIS AROUND 305 PM EDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE RAY  
CENTER AND NEW HAVEN.  

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0688
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019

   Areas affected...Central/Southern Illinois and Western Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191906Z - 192100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Localized severe hail/damaging wind potential, watch
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a line of convection has developed
   along a pre-frontal trough extending across portions of
   central/southern Illinois. Thus far, development has been modulated
   by the weak amount of instability (MLCAPE < 1000 J/kg). However,
   storms should continue to gradually intensify as the airmass ahead
   of the line continues to destabilize with diabatic heating and the
   approaching upper-level trough. Effective bulk shear of 50-55 kt
   will help to organize the convection into primarily multicellular
   structures, with severe hail and a few damaging wind gusts possible.
   Should this storm evolution unfold and storm coverage continue to
   expand, a watch may be needed.

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29 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Chicago has a severe warned cell on the north side of the city.

Some decent wind damage reports from that. 

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Pre frontal line of thin convection extending from near Danville IL sw to Mt. Vernon IL area.  Watching closely since sometimes pre frontal lines can hold surprises.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
355 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  CENTRAL FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  NORTHWESTERN TIPPECANOE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  NORTHWESTERN VERMILLION COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 355 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE   
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR TALBOT TO TILTON, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. A 63   
  MPH WIND GUST WAS REPORTED EAST OF ROSSVILLE AT 350 PM.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...PUBLIC.  
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  WEST LAFAYETTE, COVINGTON, VEEDERSBURG, WILLIAMSPORT, ATTICA,  
  SHADELAND, WEST LEBANON, PERRYSVILLE, NEWTOWN, PINE VILLAGE, STATE  
  LINE CITY, PENCE, FOSTER, TAB, GESSIE AND RAINSVILLE.  
  
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...  
 INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 181 AND 183.  
 INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 16.  
  

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Bit surprised no svr storm watch has been issued yet for IN.  I know this is based on extent of geographical coverage, but we have had a number of svr warnings already.

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A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT  
FOR CENTRAL FOUNTAIN...NORTHWESTERN TIPPECANOE...WARREN AND  
NORTHWESTERN VERMILLION COUNTIES...  
  
AT 410 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE   
EXTENDING FROM NEAR OXFORD TO NEAR COVINGTON, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.   
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
SOURCE...PUBLIC.  
  
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
COVINGTON, VEEDERSBURG, WILLIAMSPORT, ATTICA, SHADELAND, WEST  
LEBANON, PERRYSVILLE, NEWTOWN, PINE VILLAGE, FOSTER, GESSIE AND  
RAINSVILLE.  

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7 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Bit surprised no svr storm watch has been issued yet for IN.  I know this is based on extent of geographical coverage, but we have had a number of svr warnings already.

Just issued

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Small bows seem to be forming on many of the incoming cells throughout the line.  60 mph gusts seem to be prominent in warnings.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
522 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  NORTHERN CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  NORTHERN TIPTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 600 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 521 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF WALTON TO 6 MILES WEST OF   
  FRANKFORT, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. A SPOTTER ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS   
  IN FLORA AT 5:14 PM.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...PUBLIC.  
  
  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE   
           TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  KOKOMO, FRANKFORT, GREENTOWN, RUSSIAVILLE, SHARPSVILLE, BURLINGTON,  
  MICHIGANTOWN AND INDIAN HEIGHTS.  

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA  HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  WABASH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  SOUTHWESTERN WHITLEY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN INDIANA...  
  NORTHWESTERN HUNTINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN INDIANA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  MIAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 600 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 535 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR AKRON TO 7 MILES EAST OF MEXICO TO 6 MILES   
  NORTHWEST OF KOKOMO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. SPORADIC REPORTS   
  OF TREE DAMAGE AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 57 MPH HAVE BEEN   
  RECORDED IN LOGANSPORT, DENVER AND WALTON.   
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  

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ULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
553 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  TIPTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 645 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 552 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF FRANKFORT TO 9 MILES   
  NORTHWEST OF TIPTON, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM HAS WEAK   
  ROTATION IN SOUTHWEST HOWARD COUNTY.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE   
           TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  KOKOMO, ELWOOD, ALEXANDRIA, TIPTON, WINDFALL, GREENTOWN,  
  RUSSIAVILLE, SUMMITVILLE, ATLANTA, SHARPSVILLE, ORESTES, KEMPTON  
  AND INDIAN HEIGHTS.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
627 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...  
  WEST CENTRAL EATON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...  
  
* UNTIL 700 PM EDT.  
      
* AT 626 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A   
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF NASHVILLE, OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST   
  OF HASTINGS, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
  NASHVILLE AROUND 635 PM EDT.  
  CHARLOTTE AROUND 700 PM EDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
KALAMO, VERMONTVILLE AND GRESHAM.  

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Weak rotation in the storm headed my way...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
636 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  WESTERN HANCOCK COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  EASTERN HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 700 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 635 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BROWNSBURG,   
  OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS   
  STORM HAS PRODUCED WEAK ROTATION NORTH OF BROWNSBURG.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  INDIANAPOLIS, CARMEL, FISHERS, NOBLESVILLE, GREENWOOD, LAWRENCE,  
  PLAINFIELD, BROWNSBURG, GREENFIELD, BEECH GROVE, ZIONSVILLE,  
  SPEEDWAY, MOORESVILLE, DANVILLE, SOUTHPORT, WESTFIELD, AVON,  
  CUMBERLAND, MCCORDSVILLE AND FORTVILLE.  

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The line had more bark than bite south of Indy

Interesting tidbit from storm reports today. Not too often you see a fatality from wind damage report. Wrong place at the wrong time.

1900 UNK 2 ESE ETAM PRESTON WV 3928 7969 *** 1 FATAL ... 1 INJ *** A FALLEN TREE DURING STORM STUCK 3 KAYAKERS ALONG THE CHEAT RIVER

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