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Dr. Dews

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2019

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20 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Actually, the NHC best track committee reduced the landfall intensity to 95 kt in MA, in their reanalysis.  It's conceivable it was still a Cat 3 at landfall, but it has officially been reanalyzed to an upper-end Cat 2...borderline 3.  

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/UShurrs_detailed.html

I understand. JMO, not that it is correct.

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I believe since ENSO will be transitioning from weak El Nino state to a neutral and then weak La Nina state throughout the hurricane season, we could see a slow August and then a large ramp up from the end of August through November.  I believe the East Coast is at risk, as the potential for near home activity is higher than average.  Especially with a rather dry MDR and the tropical Atlantic Ocean west of 60W longitude, the favored areas for significant tropical cyclone activity of Major Hurricanes category three or higher landfalls looks to be NC, SC, FL Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states.  I believe there will be a threatening major potentially category four hurricane making landfall on the Northeastern Us sometime late August through Labor Day into the first few weeks of September given the highly warm western Atlantic Ocean right now and expected throughout the rest of the season, as oceanic temps reach the low-80s off the Cape and Islands by the end of AUG.  A situation in which a cold front stall of the NC coastline into the Bahamas leads to a surface low developing in the Bahamas region and then heading up the East Coast, peaking as a major cat four hurricanes and making landfall on the SNE south coast is something I see.  A stronger version of Hurricane Bob 1991, looks like a threat. 

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Invest 94L is the system east of the central Bahamas by about 90-104 miles.  It is developing a better-defined center of circulation in the lower levels.  Convection is getting better organized and it is over very high SSTs and high OHC.  Also of note, the shear is still too high for rapid development, but the SHIPS diagnostic shear forecast is expected to be favorable for a three day period over 29.5+C water temperatures.  Huge potential here, we need to watch carefully.

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7 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe since ENSO will be transitioning from weak El Nino state to a neutral and then weak La Nina state throughout the hurricane season, we could see a slow August and then a large ramp up from the end of August through November.  I believe the East Coast is at risk, as the potential for near home activity is higher than average.  Especially with a rather dry MDR and the tropical Atlantic Ocean west of 60W longitude, the favored areas for significant tropical cyclone activity of Major Hurricanes category three or higher landfalls looks to be NC, SC, FL Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states.  I believe there will be a threatening major potentially category four hurricane making landfall on the Northeastern Us sometime late August through Labor Day into the first few weeks of September given the highly warm western Atlantic Ocean right now and expected throughout the rest of the season, as oceanic temps reach the low-80s off the Cape and Islands by the end of AUG.  A situation in which a cold front stall of the NC coastline into the Bahamas leads to a surface low developing in the Bahamas region and then heading up the East Coast, peaking as a major cat four hurricanes and making landfall on the SNE south coast is something I see.  A stronger version of Hurricane Bob 1991, looks like a threat. 

I don't believe New England has ever had a cat 4 strike. Maybe 1635. Maybe.

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6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I don't believe New England has ever had a cat 4 strike. Maybe 1635. Maybe.

Oh, I am not saying they have, just now with the way the Oceans are, the coastline south of SNE coast is getting warmer on average, this season it is quite warm already and we have yet to reach climo peak.

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1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Oh, I am not saying they have, just now with the way the Oceans are, the coastline south of SNE coast is getting warmer on average, this season it is quite warm already and we have yet to reach climo peak.

Maybe, but how deep does that warm water go? Any large storm will upwell cold water in front of it. A high end cat 3, low end 4 into SNE would require a truly extraordinary, if not perfect series of events. 

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43 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Maybe, but how deep does that warm water go? Any large storm will upwell cold water in front of it. A high end cat 3, low end 4 into SNE would require a truly extraordinary, if not perfect series of events. 

Perfection happens, just not enough for odds to favor such an event.  However, you got to admit, we are due for a big hurricane event.  The deepest waters are essentially in the western Caribbean Sea and the waters just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in the Puerto Rico Trench where depths are nearly 28,000 feet below the surface of the ocean.  There are warm enough waters in the Gulf Stream at a fairly deep depth.  However, the waters south of the South Shore of New England, and the Islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard are indeed quite shallow, however, for the most part, there are exceptions like Tropical Storm Jose, but for the most part, the forward speed of the hurricanes that reach SNE coastline, are too fast for upwelling to even be considered a negative action.

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15 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe since ENSO will be transitioning from weak El Nino state to a neutral and then weak La Nina state throughout the hurricane season, we could see a slow August and then a large ramp up from the end of August through November.  I believe the East Coast is at risk, as the potential for near home activity is higher than average.  Especially with a rather dry MDR and the tropical Atlantic Ocean west of 60W longitude, the favored areas for significant tropical cyclone activity of Major Hurricanes category three or higher landfalls looks to be NC, SC, FL Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states.  I believe there will be a threatening major potentially category four hurricane making landfall on the Northeastern Us sometime late August through Labor Day into the first few weeks of September given the highly warm western Atlantic Ocean right now and expected throughout the rest of the season, as oceanic temps reach the low-80s off the Cape and Islands by the end of AUG.  A situation in which a cold front stall of the NC coastline into the Bahamas leads to a surface low developing in the Bahamas region and then heading up the East Coast, peaking as a major cat four hurricanes and making landfall on the SNE south coast is something I see.  A stronger version of Hurricane Bob 1991, looks like a threat. 

I will give you $100 if New England somehow gets directly hit with a hurricane by the end of the season. :p

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3 hours ago, Nova737 said:

I will give you $100 if New England somehow gets directly hit with a hurricane by the end of the season. :p

I'll raise you another 100 :)

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I'm not sure what to say other than let's wait to see what the peak period looks like. Yes, SST temperatures are warm (further south) but there's a lot more that goes into whether we see a bona fide threat. In a warm neutral regime, which is where we may be headed for the peak of this season, wind shear tends to diminish along the East Coast. That may enhance chances for activity. Another thing to consider is the presence of moisture. The dominance of the SAL tends to recede during the peak, but it's not always a given. Regardless, for any system close to the US coast you have to consider the presence of continental air becoming entrained and limiting tropical genesis potential/intensification potential. 

That's just to get in the door too. Doesn't matter how favorable an environment is--if you don't have a favorable upper level pattern, which you won't know until the medium term at best--it's curtains for a legitimate threat. 

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6 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

 

;)

Nice find. After seeing the damage in Harwich from a minor tornado, imagine the nightmare that will be New England when the next major cane comes roaring through. Hope the utilities have a big sinking fund and their disaster insurers have reinsurance. 

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What's interesting too is the frequency of storms that had direct impact on New England from the late 30s to the late 50s. Like 4 big hits in less than 20 years? If we went through another cycle like that, look out.

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10 hours ago, rimetree said:

What's interesting too is the frequency of storms that had direct impact on New England from the late 30s to the late 50s. Like 4 big hits in less than 20 years? If we went through another cycle like that, look out.

Yeah and that does not include the near-miss Carol ? In 53,  edouardesque, as well as the incredible flooding of Connie/Diane of '55

We've been pushing our luck 

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12 hours ago, Hoth said:

Nice find. After seeing the damage in Harwich from a minor tornado, imagine the nightmare that will be New England when the next major cane comes roaring through. Hope the utilities have a big sinking fund and their disaster insurers have reinsurance. 

Bob was much worse on the Cape for most people.I was old enough to remember it but most 30-35 or younger have zero idea what a hurricane can do in NE. I was in the right eyewall about 1/2 mile where the roof was ripped off the hotel in E Fal. The gusts were 100 easy, maybe 120. You could hear the Microbursts and damage around you

 

 Bob came in two hours earlier than anticipated by the previous days forecasts, generally. A 4pm landfall would have destroyed coastal SE MA nearing high tide. Two hours,maybe 3 prevented a much worse hit.

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love this, looks like 60-70 sustained. Dartmouth MA just missed the strongest winds by 30-60 mi but the fading eye went overhead

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11 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

love this, looks like 60-70 sustained. Dartmouth MA just missed the strongest winds by 30-60 mi but the fading eye went overhead

That was awesome. There's a video of Bob from Block Island floating around that's pretty epic too.

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12 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Bob was much worse on the Cape for most people.I was old enough to remember it but most 30-35 or younger have zero idea what a hurricane can do in NE. I was in the right eyewall about 1/2 mile where the roof was ripped off the hotel in E Fal. The gusts were 100 easy, maybe 120. You could hear the Microbursts and damage around you

 

 Bob came in two hours earlier than anticipated by the previous days forecasts, generally. A 4pm landfall would have destroyed coastal SE MA nearing high tide. Two hours,maybe 3 prevented a much worse hit.

Bob was historic for my local region..(the top part of Buzzards bay). We had a 12ft-20ft surge and many houses in the Swift Beach area were destroyed or swept completely out to sea. I can't imagine if it hit during peak high tide. 

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Measured 6.41" at my (then) Gardiner home, greatest calendar-day rain event I've recorded.  Bob was also the only TC of my experience in which the backside winds were essentially the same speed as frontside, though over 90% of the precip came before the switch.  PWM had a bit over 8" with several Cumberland County bridges blown out.  That was their biggest one-day rain until the October 1996 hybrid storm dumped 12" on them.

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2 hours ago, Hoth said:

That was awesome. There's a video of Bob from Block Island floating around that's pretty epic too.

Not sure if I have seen that, will check it out.

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7 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Not sure if I have seen that, will check it out.

Found it. Cane footage starts around 2:30.

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I recall bob in Raynham mass no big deal 

50 miles ese was a big deal 

what a very very long lull for SNE , I have completely dismissed the idea of a storm hitting the region it’s been ...a while 

foolishly I kno but there hasn’t been anything here close to wide spread 100mph gusts over area in so long 

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44 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Found it. Cane footage starts around 2:30.

Yeah I watched that one. It looks like storm footage from Newport, RI, then the aftermath in BID. Iirc BID gusted ~125, Newport was maybe 100ish 

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28 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Some models like UK and Icon like development late next week N of Puerto Rico S.E coast riding North 

GEPS close but no cigar

 

 

gem-ememb_lowlocs_atl_30.png

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7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEPS close but no cigar

 

 

gem-ememb_lowlocs_atl_30.png

I just want some big swells either Friday Saturday or Sunday .

taking vaca end next week and haven’t decided between RI beaches or stowe /mount Washington 

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