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bluewave

April 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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The 2002 heat wave was followed by 10 days of below normal temps and April 2002 finished +3.1 at EWR

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35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow thats amazing and unlike 1976, the heat extended all the way through the summer and even early fall!

On Long Island we haven't had the really high temps because of all the southerly flow, I associate warm Aprils with frequent highs in the 70s with a few spikes into the 80s.

 

Yeah, we have had a warmer than normal April here on Long Island even with an average temperature under 50. Takes us time to really warm up with the ocean still so cool. 2002 was the year without a winter that had a head start on the heat. I set a record for winter LB boardwalk bike mileage with such a mild and dry weather. There were several winter days when the bikers and joggers were wearing shorts. Epic reversal to cold and snowy the following 2 winters. But I did see a jogger in only a lightweight track suit when it got near 0 in January 2004.

ISP....+2.4....49.6

NYC..+2.9...53.9

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we have had a warmer than normal April here on Long Island even with an average temperature under 50. Takes us time to really warm up with the ocean still so cool. 2002 was the year without a winter that had a head start on the heat. I set a record for winter LB boardwalk  bike mileage with such a mild and dry winter. There were several winter days where the bikers and joggers were wearing shorts. Epic reversal to cold and snowy the following 2 winters. But I did see a jogger in only a lightweight track suit when it got near 0 in January 2004.

ISP....+2.4....49.6

NYC..+2.9...53.9

That was our first streak of great winters!  We really revved it up in the 2010s though.  I remember 2001-02 for seeing roses blooming a week before Christmas and crocoses coming out in the last week of February! Who would have thought the epic pattern that would begin in 2002-03-- or that we would see an 8 inch snowstorm in April 2003, a year after the April heatwave!

 

 

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That was our first streak of great winters!  We really revved it up in the 2010s though.  I remember 2001-02 for seeing roses blooming a week before Christmas and crocoses coming out in the last week of February! Who would have thought the epic pattern that would begin in 2002-03-- or that we would see an 8 inch snowstorm in April 2003, a year after the April heatwave.

What a snow drought between 96-97 and 01-02. My only memorable snowstorms during that stretch were the March 99 surprise and the one near the end of December 2000. 

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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What a snow drought between 96-97 and 01-02. My only memorable snowstorms during that stretch were the March 99 surprise and the one near the end of December 2000. 

And those were the first 5 years I owned my ski/snowboard shop :( It was a good thing I also sold bikes :) 

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Earlier today, the temperature soared to 80° in New York City. That was New York City's first 80° temperature since the mercury topped out at 80° on October 10, 2018. Last year, the City had its first 80° reading on April 13. Since 2000, only 2000 and 2014 saw no 80° temperatures in April.

Even as the temperature reached the warmest levels so far this year, a storm was bringing severe thunderstorms and heavy rain to the Southeast. Overnight and tomorrow, that storm will likely bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rain to the New York City area. Some locally higher amounts are possible, especially to the west of I-95. Readings should remain above average. Based on sensitivity analysis, there is an implied probability of 64% that New York City will pick up 1.00" or more rain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -17.59 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.712.

The closing 7-10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 91%. There is also an implied 67% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 54% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record.

On April 17, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.927 (RMM). The amplitude was above the April 16-adjusted figure of 0.752. The MJO has now had an amplitude below 1.000 for 36 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015.

Within the next day or so, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above, likely in Phase 2. Historic data with the very long duration periods of low amplitude favors a return to higher amplitude at Phases 8, 1, or 2 (Phase 2 accounts for 6/14 or 43% cases). Typically, additional days at low amplitude then follow during the subsequent 30 days.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Nothing like a truly warm April, like what we had back in 2002 around this time ;-)

Honestly, this month doesn't feel warm at all with how much I've had the heat on lol.

Although the warmth this April has not been as extreme as it was in 2002, it has been more persistent. There is a distinct possibility that the mean temperature for April 2019 could approach or reach that of April 2002.

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25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although the warmth this April has not been as extreme as it was in 2002, it has been more persistent. There is a distinct possibility that the mean temperature for April 2019 could approach or reach that of April 2002.

Yeah there was a decent stretch of cold the final 10 days that month

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Next 8 days averaging 61degs., or about 6degs. AN.

Month to date is +3.6[54.6].      Should be +4.2[56.5], by the 28th.

BN at very end of the month should block any chance of finishing at #1 (GFS,CMC).  Remainder of April needs to be >+7.1, for the record, but just >+4.4, for 2nd. spot.

Yesterday's 80* is a shocker, as it held here under 65*, even with periods of sun.

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Newark enters the top 10 warmest Aprils through the 19th.

Warmest 4/1-4/19 at Newark

1 2010-04-19 58.8 0
- 2002-04-19 58.8 0
3 1945-04-19 57.0 0
4 2012-04-19 56.6 0
5 1981-04-19 56.1 0
6 2017-04-19 56.0 0
7 2006-04-19 55.6 0
8 1994-04-19 55.1 0
9 1941-04-19 54.9 0
10 2019-04-19 54.4 0

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67/64 here

picked up 0.66 in the bucket.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

Hope we can break into some of that clearing down in PA/VA later today.

 

vis0.gif

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On 4/19/2019 at 9:25 AM, bluewave said:

November and March were the few times over the last year that we saw the WAR relax. It pretty much ran the table for the DJF resulting in near record low snowfall over that period. Notice how the influence of the Greenland blocking often gets muted under this regime.

61480A8D-C6DC-461A-A018-3A8A970BAFFD.png.82d0998d02ae19ccc96cd34174584cf8.png

Block didn't gain much latitude either.

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Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden from late this morning and early this afternoon. The temperature was 60° and the rain came to an end. Skies remained overcast.

NYBG04202019-1.jpg

NYBG04202019-2.jpg

NYBG04202019-4.jpg

NYBG04202019-6.jpg

NYBG04202019-9.jpg

NYBG04202019-10.jpg

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19 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah there was a decent stretch of cold the final 10 days that month

There was. 2019 has a real chance to have  a higher mean temperature, especially if some of the near record and record heat being experienced in Kansas and Colorado can make it to the region.

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Rainfall totals in the New York City area were generally well within the expected range of 0.50"-1.50". Amounts included: Bridgeport: 0.55"; Islip: 0.61"; New York City: 0.71"; Newark: 0.58"; Poughkeepsie: 0.49"; and, White Plains: 0.88".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -17.67 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.363.

The closing 10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 96%. There is also an implied 76% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 63% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record.

The mean temperature for May following April cases with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above is 63.0°. It is likely that April 2019 will finish with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above. The dynamic guidance and statistical guidance are in agreement that May will wind up on the warm side of normal in the New York City area.

On April 19, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.875 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat below the April 18-adjusted figure of 0.928. The MJO has now had an amplitude below 1.000 for 37 consecutive days. That's the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015.

Within the next day or so, the MJO could emerge into an amplitude of 1.000 or above, likely in Phase 2. Historic data with the very long duration periods of low amplitude favors a return to higher amplitude at Phases 8, 1, or 2 (Phase 2 accounts for 6/14 or 43% cases). Typically, additional days at low amplitude then follow during the subsequent 30 days.

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in 2002 it was 100 imby in the Westerleigh  section of Staten Island...it was 90 imby in the Bulls head section in late March 1998...1976 reached 96 in April in NYC and it was the hottest temperature of the year...2009 had its hottest temp of the year in April and tied in August...the only years when April had the hottest annual temperature...

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Next 8 days are averaging 60degs., or 5degs. AN.

Month to date is +3.6[55.0].      Should be +4.0[56.4], by the 29th.

Headed for a second or third place finish on the all-time list.

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11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Rainfall totals in the New York City area were generally well within the expected range of 0.50"-1.50". Amounts included: Bridgeport: 0.55"; Islip: 0.61"; New York City: 0.71"; Newark: 0.58"; Poughkeepsie: 0.49"; and, White Plains: 0.88".

 

I'm closer to HPN than POU but beat them both by a good bit in rainfall. Looks like 1.1" here for late night 19th through the 20th.

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NYC ties the all-time record of 15 consecutive months with at least 3.00” of precipitation.

Feb 18 to Apr 19....15 months

2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55
2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 3.05 M M M M M M M M 13.64

Dec 74 to Feb 76.....15 months

1974 3.80 1.49 5.76 3.83 4.29 3.29 1.33 5.99 8.05 2.59 0.94 6.33 47.69
1975 4.76 3.33 3.32 3.04 3.38 7.58 11.77 3.05 9.32 3.70 4.33 3.63 61.21
1976 5.78 3.13
 

Dec 10 to Jan 12.....14 months

2010 2.08 6.69 10.69 2.99 3.01 2.20 2.60 4.14 3.67 4.91 2.15 4.24 49.37
2011 4.93 3.47 6.19 5.35 5.11 3.25 3.03 18.95 9.39 6.09 3.05 4.00 72.81
2012 3.23  

 

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Very pleasant 64 and mostly sunny Easter morning. Weekend turned out to be nice overall.  Rain mostly at night and some nice days

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

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1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Very pleasant 64 and mostly sunny Easter morning. Weekend turned out to be nice overall.  Rain mostly at night and some nice days

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

 

Tell that to the folks on LI

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