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Pretty anomalous setup for March here for NM and W TX tomorrow. Strong signal on the CAMs for a supercellular storm mode initially and those could be tornadic judging by the wind fields. Going to be a question of how much moisture can be advected in there before initiation. Current obs closer to the Gulf Coast show mid-upper 60s dewpoints becoming entrenched near the Rio Grande Valley in south-central TX. Given the strength of this cyclogenesis/low level wind field, I would not be shocked to see 50s dewpoints common in E/SE NM, which, given the terrain, would amount to a fairly substantial amount of CAPE.

Slow moving closed lows like this tend to perform well in the High Plains.

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The dewpoints are already pretty incredible even this far north in Albuquerque - up to 46/47F. Gotta be near record levels of moisture content for March if it isn't record setting. When we get heavy rain in Summer, it is typically with dew points around 50 and temps in the 70s-lows 90s.

I'm still expecting most of New Mexico above 5,000 feet to go to snow at some point late Tuesday or early Wednesday. I'm expecting 50-60 mph winds even where I am as the cold front moves in, maybe some hail, and then we go to brick like snow in the low or mid 30s for an hour or two before the dry air emerges victorious over its desert kingdom once more. 

The NAM has a very powerful line of thunderstorms developing in Eastern New Mexico ahead of the cold front.

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37 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

The dewpoints are already pretty incredible even this far north in Albuquerque - up to 46/47F. Gotta be near record levels of moisture content for March if it isn't record setting. When we get heavy rain in Summer, it is typically with dew points around 50 and temps in the 70s-lows 90s.

I'm still expecting most of New Mexico above 5,000 feet to go to snow at some point late Tuesday or early Wednesday. I'm expecting 50-60 mph winds even where I am as the cold front moves in, maybe some hail, and then we go to brick like snow in the low or mid 30s for an hour or two before the dry air emerges victorious over its desert kingdom once more. 

The NAM has a very powerful line of thunderstorms developing in Eastern New Mexico ahead of the cold front.

SPC sounding climo shows 45 as the daily max for March 12 at 00z. 

Max for the entire month of March is only 48...

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That one cell the HRRR keeps developing in SE NM around 21Z certainly is interesting. That's probably where I'd target if I were out today. It's somewhat on an island with that cell though.

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SPC added 10% TOR and 45% wind (both non-hatched, so no MDT for winds yet) probalities in the 1630Z D1SWO. Should be a fun day, especially for THAT area in March, with at least a few hours of discrete supercells before everything congeals. Here’s to hoping RadarScope doesn’t go down again for us arm chair chasers. Might just have to drag out the computer and pull up GR2A. 

Hopefully we can get some similarly powerful cyclones and upper-level systems like this in a month or two...

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Appears that discrete cellular activity has thus far been very limited as everything has been linear and clustered so far. Still an hour or two left for a tail-end charlie I suppose. 

TONS of embedded circulations though, which is unsurprising given the impressive low-level wind profile.

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4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Looks like very strong rotation in a discrete cell, might have just barely missed Pecos to the NW. Just SVR warned.

MAF_0113.png

Pretty curious of what happens when it merges with the line, thinking is it'll remain at least semi-discrete. This has decent tornado potential.

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I don't know if they're going to be able to stay rooted at the surface with nightfall, but I don't see why not if they can. The 00Z sounding from Midland had very impressive low level shear.

uz7GDWQ.gif

That being said, capping increases considerably just to the east, so that might snuff them out pretty quickly.

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There was a 75 mph wind gust reported at Fort Worth NAS JRB per the storm reports on SPC's website.  I'm close to that area and didn't get any sort of strong wind gusts at my location to my understanding.

EDIT: updated severe thunderstorm warning for Dallas County mentioning 80 mph wind gusts as a possibility.  Hearing reports of power outages in various areas of DFW over Facebook.  Expecting to hear reports of storm damage filter in across the DFW area over the next few hours especially once daylight comes along.

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8 hours ago, BrandonC_TX said:

There was a 75 mph wind gust reported at Fort Worth NAS JRB per the storm reports on SPC's website.  I'm close to that area and didn't get any sort of strong wind gusts at my location to my understanding.

EDIT: updated severe thunderstorm warning for Dallas County mentioning 80 mph wind gusts as a possibility.  Hearing reports of power outages in various areas of DFW over Facebook.  Expecting to hear reports of storm damage filter in across the DFW area over the next few hours especially once daylight comes along.

Substantial damage... Grand Prairie airport took it on the chin with many planes destroyed and a report from an anemometer (off the ground) at 95kts.  An Amazon building near DFW airport lost a roof with video on twitter.  A large tower folded up in Godley in what might have been a QLCS spin up.  DFW ASOS measured 78MPH, 71 at Addison airport.  Etc. etc.  Best line since 3/29/17

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