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Minnesota_storms

March 9-11 Winter Storm

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GFS consistently north and Euro consistently south. GFS did decent with this current system. Should be in NAM's long range tomorrow 

Pretty sure this is for the second system (weekend), which is a rainer for all but far NW sub-forum.


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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Pretty sure this is for the second system (weekend), which is a rainer for all but far NW sub-forum.


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Oops you're right. I was talking about the Thurs system. Yea weekend storm definitely looks like a rainer. Possible thunderstorms to

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Have already conceded frozen precip potential with this system.  The big neg though is the fact that it looks like another cold rainer, as opposed to meaningful convective potential.  Lack of snow potential, and lack of even marginal convection makes this a benign time-wasting meh of a system.  Hopefully something of interest follows.  

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Have already conceded frozen precip potential with this system.  The big neg though is the fact that it looks like another cold rainer, as opposed to meaningful convective potential.  Lack of snow potential, and lack of even marginal convection makes this a benign time-wasting meh of a system.  Hopefully something of interest follows.  

I wouldn't concede anything yet, though I'm not hugely optimistic.  All it would take is for the northern stream wave over the Canadian Prairies to be a little quicker (which is what the GFS was showing about 48 hours ago), less phasing, and you get a bowling ball storm instead with snow/mixed precip.

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The german model (ICON) has continued to be the furthest south (and coldest) with this system and still shows significant ice storm potential for much of eastern Iowa.  That could possibly change.

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Most models at the moment have the low traveling through Iowa this weekend.  The UKMET and ICON are the models that have the system way south, much weaker and slower arrival time (aka the models that paint a significant ice storm for Iowa).

EDIT: Navgem takes the low through Chicago, almost identical to the ICON.  Not as weak but I would imagine an icy scenario for Iowa.

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Yep looks like a northern MN/WI special at this point. Over the weekend the GFS raised my eyebrows a bit with a swath of 6"-12" going right over the IA/MN border, across southern WI, and central/southern lower MI.

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I want another foot. Bring it on.  30-35 inches of snow depth would be something I really haven't lived through to this point. Spring and warm weather are for suckers. We'll get er all melted by June.

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38 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

GFS taking a step southeast towards the Euro and throwing down 12- 13” imby. 

3627D88D-A17B-4ECE-904D-C761893E50AB.png

Definitely like the Euro. Same path as the last run but is colder farther south. I kinda want snow but this and the system after will make us have 8'' of water in the snow. Hell of a snowmelt would happen.

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8 hours ago, Minnesota_storms said:

Definitely like the Euro. Same path as the last run but is colder farther south. I kinda want snow but this and the system after will make us have 8'' of water in the snow. Hell of a snowmelt would happen.

Spring flood threat is going to be extreme around here. I fully expect soggy ground well into June....looking likely we will stay all or mostly frozen precip for this one. 

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17 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Looks like 12Z NAM want to blitz us with ZR. Fun times.

Same here.  3 hours of ZR before changeover to snow.  Likely at least a couple tenths of an inch of ice for here, plus there will be some wind which will mean some power problems.

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12 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Remember when this was a guaranteed all-rainer for S. WI/IA/IL?

PepperidgeFarmStill.jpg

Yes but then the models went south and weaker.  If they go even further south then it's major ice storm territory.  The NAM has a big area of .50+ ice accumulation for much of Iowa, although much of that would be runoff.

 

And to add insult to injury, yet another storm system on Tuesday/Wednesday.  Looks to be mostly a rainer for this subforum but that could change.

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42 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Looks like 12Z NAM want to blitz us with ZR. Fun times.

I'm fine with not having ZR thank you very much NAM.

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This looks like one of those (rather common) scenarios where, counterintuitively, a (relatively) weaker system leads to higher impact wx. There seems to be a point, usually around 990mb, where except in rare cases further deepening does more harm than good if you want to see winter and/or severe wx (at least when the SLP is still centered west of the MS river). Those "inland hurricanes" that are down in the low 980s or below typically just bring blustery cold rain to locations not on the Lakes, and the big time snow occurs in the northern Plains.

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3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Remember when this was a guaranteed all-rainer for S. WI/IA/IL?

It's still a guaranteed rainer for IL, minus backside flurries.

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