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Kmlwx

2019 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx - General Discussion

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Just now, adelphi_sky said:

I'm ready for HUrricane tracking now. I'm done staring at radar hoping for drops of rain to feed my baby grass. I'll just replant in the fall. Bring on the big storms!  

This has been a good spring for our lawn.  We had a huge infestation of flying ants that wrecked our lawn and the reseeding was intense this year but the cool spring helped most of the grass take.

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29 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

I'm ready for HUrricane tracking now. I'm done staring at radar hoping for drops of rain to feed my baby grass. I'll just replant in the fall. Bring on the big storms!  

1893 tropical system tracks redux with a Hazel and 1878 track thrown in with mid 30's Celsius water temps off the SE coast and in the Gulf of Mexico please... pretty please with 22 cherries on top.

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41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This has been a good spring for our lawn.  We had a huge infestation of flying ants that wrecked our lawn and the reseeding was intense this year but the cool spring helped most of the grass take.

Sorry to hear about the flying ants. Glad you got most of your lawn back. To be honest, I'm just complaining about maybe 10% of my lawn. But its curb appeal ya know. :-)

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LWX in their afternoon AFD mentioned the chance for some severe early next week... on Monday I believe 

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I’ve been in 3  60mph+ gusts torrential sheets of rain thunderstorms already.

Dont have  typical summer outlook this year but I  think well below average number of 90 days like 25 even though overall temp average about 0.5 of normal

Tropics busy

will go with  16 named but just 7 hurricanes 2 of which major.

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a pretty spectacular upper wind field will spread across our region Thursday (over 100 kt at 250 mb), but it's going to be wasted for severe weather due to the inability to get quality moisture to return to our area after it gets shunted to our south Tuesday.

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4 hours ago, high risk said:

a pretty spectacular upper wind field will spread across our region Thursday (over 100 kt at 250 mb), but it's going to be wasted for severe weather due to the inability to get quality moisture to return to our area after it gets shunted to our south Tuesday.

You got me REALLY excited and then I got totally deflated as I kept reading :(

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12 hours ago, high risk said:

a pretty spectacular upper wind field will spread across our region Thursday (over 100 kt at 250 mb), but it's going to be wasted for severe weather due to the inability to get quality moisture to return to our area after it gets shunted to our south Tuesday.

12z NAM seems to think otherwise... its at the end of its run, at KIAD at 78 hours, it has ~1000 SBCAPE at 18z THUR with MLCAPE at around 650.  0-6km shear is flying at over 60 kts.  

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29 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z NAM seems to think otherwise... its at the end of its run, at KIAD at 78 hours, it has ~1000 SBCAPE at 18z THUR with MLCAPE at around 650.  0-6km shear is flying at over 60 kts.  

             Sure, if we can get low 60's dew points back on Thursday, and the front waits until mid-afternoon to move through, we could absolutely get a low-topped line of showers (or even t-storms) with some wind potential.     But if we were looking at a more typical June 84/68, it would have been a MDT risk day here for sure.

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3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

@yoda - Remember though that shear can't be too strong is instability isn't that great as the updrafts could get ripped apart. Plus...NAM at range disclaimer as usual. 

If only we could get a Bill 2015 track repeat but with a very powerful southeast ridge in place. An example: Say, a category 1 landfall near Houston, TX Tuesday night, June 18, 2019. Then the fast-flow around the ridge combined with a shortwave moving in from the north slingshots it to this region by Thursday afternoon June 20, 2019 as a ~990mb low bringing backing SSE winds and upper 70's/80F dewpoints and mid 90'sF air temperatures yielding mlcape ~4000J/kg despite warm temperature profiles aloft with 50-60+kt EBWD and 250-350+ m2/s2 effective shear bringing a goodly severe threat to the region. 

Sorry. Weenie mode getting carried away. But you hopefully get my drift. 

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5 minutes ago, high risk said:

             Sure, if we can get low 60's dew points back on Thursday, and the front waits until mid-afternoon to move through, we could absolutely get a low-topped line of showers (or even t-storms) with some wind potential.     But if we were looking at a more typical June 84/68, it would have been a MDT risk day here for sure.

Random note: This Thursday marks 6 years since the immediate area was last under a moderate risk.

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1 hour ago, George BM said:

If only we could get a Bill 2015 track repeat but with a very powerful southeast ridge in place. An example: Say, a category 1 landfall near Houston, TX Tuesday night, June 18, 2019. Then the fast-flow around the ridge combined with a shortwave moving in from the north slingshots it to this region by Thursday afternoon June 20, 2019 as a ~990mb low bringing backing SSE winds and upper 70's/80F dewpoints and mid 90'sF air temperatures yielding mlcape ~4000J/kg despite warm temperature profiles aloft with 50-60+ EBWD and 250-350+ m2/s2 effective shear bringing a goodly severe threat to the region. 

 

              you sick bastard.     :rolleyes:

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1 hour ago, high risk said:

             Sure, if we can get low 60's dew points back on Thursday, and the front waits until mid-afternoon to move through, we could absolutely get a low-topped line of showers (or even t-storms) with some wind potential.     But if we were looking at a more typical June 84/68, it would have been a MDT risk day here for sure.

Why are you doing this to us - now I'm going to dream of severe. 

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00z NAM looks a lil bit more intriguing for Thursday evening... at 21z THUR at KIAD, SBCAPE is around 1500, ML Lapse Rates around 6.5 C/KM, 0-6km shear around 65 kts, and MLCAPE just below 1000 with 0-3km CAPE around 170... SRH at all levels looks decent

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13 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z NAM looks a lil bit more intriguing for Thursday evening... at 21z THUR at KIAD, SBCAPE is around 1500, ML Lapse Rates around 6.5 C/KM, 0-6km shear around 65 kts, and MLCAPE just below 1000 with 0-3km CAPE around 170... SRH at all levels looks decent

    I'll bite.   :)         There is a bullseye of 1500+ cape in northern VA Friday, but it's because the NAM somehow creates a small pocket of higher 2m dew points that seems pretty fishy.    No doubt about the awesome wind fields aloft leading to some excellent deep layer shear, but what really messes us up is the surface low that passes to our east Thursday morning and turns our winds to northerly.     It does look winds will turn back to southwest during the afternoon, but I don't think it will be in time to bring enough warmth and moisture back into the area for widespread SVR.      It does look like 500 sfc-based cape is a possibility, though, and with those wind fields, I wouldn't be shocked if SPC puts us in a day 3 MRGL for the possibility of a forced line of gusty showers/storms along the cold front.      That surface low needs to either be a much weaker feature than currently progged or move faster to the northeast to give us a big SVR day Thursday.

sfccape69-1.gif

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I've been in but have been left out. I'm becoming cynical. lol  Meanwhile, Columbia gets tornadoes and LaPlata doesn't. Dogs and cats must be living together watching pigs fly overhead. 

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I have to admit that while I'm not yet "in", I'm more intrigued.     The surface low moving up the eastern shore Wednesday night isn't as defined and is slightly faster now, so the disruption to our low-level wind field may not be as pronounced.    Most guidance now quickly turns us back around to SW sfc winds Thursday morning.      I have had doubts how quickly we can clear out after the early rain, but the downsloping may be enough to help clear things out, especially in VA which will also be further away from the low departing to the northeast.     I still have some doubts about low-level moisture, and this looks like an event where the effects of 65 vs 61 dew points will be huge.     Forecast soundings all have amazing deep-layer shear and better low-level shear than last night's runs, but the cape is "tall and skinny", so I wonder if updrafts will really be able to crank up in such a sheared environment.      It's hard to not notice that UH track in the NAM nest that goes from DC to the beaches, but for now I think I agree with SPC that the better threat is west and northwest of DC where 1) sfc heating is more likely    2)  higher dew points may pool   3) better lapse rates exist as the trough arrives from the west.

Wondering if a wind advisory will be needed early Friday as a 45-50 kt LLJ overspreads the area.    They'll need a high wind warning over the terrain of eastern WV if the NAM nest is right.

 

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15 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Long range 12z HRRR has a bow echo type thing come through the area tomorrow afternoon. 

       it's a nice looking simulated reflectivity signal for sure, but the forecast soundings out ahead out if have almost no instability to work with.     I still think that some strongly-forced gusty showers (maybe some thunder?) are likely ahead of the front, but organized severe is going to be tough.    The problem is still that the low-level wind fields don't turn around to south until early afternoon due to that departing low to our northeast.

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