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Carvers Gap

Spring/Summer Banter Thread 2019

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Going to begin the banter thread with some quotes....

"Historically, consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled."  Michael Crichton

"If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go as a team."  John Wooden

"Offense sells tickets.  Defense wins games.  Rebounds win championships."  Pat Summitt

"Baseball is 90% physical and the other half is mental."  Yogi Berra

"Life for me ain't been not crystal stair."  Langston Hughes.  

When we finally tie this thread up in a bow, we will likely be able to see the first cold front of fall on LR models....

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Speaking of Spring/Summer, I just noticed this article from the Brisbane Times in Australia. Their above normal mean temperature anomalies nationally were off the charts during their meteorological Summer:

The national mean temperature for summer smashed the 1961-1990 average by a whopping 2.14 °C, almost a full degree above the previous hottest summer on record (2012-2013), which was 1.28 degrees above the old average. The mean maximum temperature also beat the 2012-2013 mean maximum by a similar margin (2.61 degrees above average compared to 1.64 degrees above.

Yowza! I knew it was a scorcher down there and an above normal anomaly, but a full degree above the previous record is shocking.

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australia-s-hottest-summer-beats-previous-record-by-large-margin-20190301-p5119e.html

I love Spring and Fall weather. I am also fascinated by all precipation types. But I've never been a big fan of scorching summer time heat. I enjoy cool days and mild days with low humidity and can certainly tolerate the cold without much fuss. So therefore I'm afraid this article already has me dreading our upcoming Summer; and I stress that without any intended correlation to what Australia endured the past four months.
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59 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Speaking of Spring/Summer, I just noticed this article from the Brisbane Times in Australia. Their above normal mean temperature anomalies nationally were off the charts during their meteorological Summer:


Yowza! I knew it was a scorcher down there and an above normal anomaly, but a full degree above the previous record is shocking.

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australia-s-hottest-summer-beats-previous-record-by-large-margin-20190301-p5119e.html

I love Spring and Fall weather. I am also fascinated by all precipation types. But I've never been a big fan of scorching summer time heat. I enjoy cool days and mild days with low humidity and can certainly tolerate the cold without much fuss. So therefore I'm afraid this article already has me dreading our upcoming Summer; and I stress that without any intended correlation to what Australia endured the past four months.

The Aussies usually scorch in a ElNino there doesn't look like any signs of Nino breaking down soon if you look at the thermoclines

 

Equatorial Pacific Temperature Depth Anomaly Animation

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To add on to the above,you want the ENSO to stay positive into NEXT winter,some signs it will some it wont.Jamstec looks good to me  heading into next winter,be nice not to have A SSWE for once.Definte no sign of an Indian Summer in the Valley,not yet anyways.For some reason this hasnt't updated the dates for some odd reason but this should be "O-N-D"

 

temp2.glob.SON2019.1feb2019.gif

 

 

 

 

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With the shift on the 00z EURO for this weekend storm, I'm redefining my definition of short/med/long range. 

Short: <6hrs

Med: 6-18hrs

Long: 24hrs or greater

These models seem to be getting worse lol.

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5 hours ago, John1122 said:

Probably not many of these fantasy maps left this season.

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

Well, there is always next year; cant wait for the early predictions to start coming out in the July/August time period; just hope that we can, as someone already stated, that we do not have the misfortune of having an early season tropical system.

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Just wanted to say congrats to TN fans. I knew today would be tough for UK. UT is a much better team than they showed the first game. As bad as UT played the first game, UK took it to another level of bad today. They were terrible today. Got to give UT credit though, they played with more energy and made it tough on kentucky to get anything going offensively. As a fan of good basketball, it's a shame that neither game was competitive. 

Bone was outstanding today. If he plays like that, UT should go a long way in the tournament. 

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Just wanted to say congrats to TN fans. I knew today would be tough for UK. UT is a much better team than they showed the first game. As bad as UT played the first game, UK took it to another level of bad today. They were terrible today. Got to give UT credit though, they played with more energy and made it tough on kentucky to get anything going offensively. As a fan of good basketball, it's a shame that neither game was competitive. Bone was outstanding today. If he plays like that, UT should go a long way in the tournament.

I feel like Tennessee had a bad stretch of games and played their worst basketball of the season. They appear to have got it out of their system and put that stretch behind them. The LSU game still stings, but I think they'll still earn a No.1 seed.

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Barnes easily coach of the year. Tennessee played today like I expected them to play in Lexington. 

 

 

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Calipari is an amazing coach.To see him lose players year after year and still be competitive is beyond my belief.But kudos to Tn for a sound win.

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There was too much panic and idiotic national media punditry after the first loss. Beating top 10-15 teams on their home floor is tough business. Heck, Duke keeps losing and doing it at home and gets a pass for losing. Tennessee should return to the top 4 in the AP poll but likely will not.

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3 hours ago, John1122 said:

There was too much panic and idiotic national media punditry after the first loss. Beating top 10-15 teams on their home floor is tough business. Heck, Duke keeps losing and doing it at home and gets a pass for losing. Tennessee should return to the top 4 in the AP poll but likely will not.

Tennessee gained back they're #1 seed yesterday. Without Reid Travis, Kentucky will likely continue to struggle.

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Definitely a nice win for Tennessee yesterday.   Tennessee now has wins over two top five teams this year, Gonzaga and Kentucky. Vols and Cats are now even for the regular season.  Just two juggernaut teams facing off in this rivalry every time they play each other.  Rubber match will likely be in the SEC tourney.  UT still has a couple of formidable games left against Mississippi State and on the road at Auburn.  I am glad to see the Vols working to re-elevate their game after a stretch of non-top 25 match-ups.  Also, several high ranking basketball recruits were in town for the UK game.  Looks like we may have landed another five star recruit.   Every win from this point forward will now be have to be earned and will be increasingly difficult with each game.  Have to show-up each night.  At 26-3, a pretty special Tennessee team.  Their only losses are to LSU(in OT), Kansas(in OT and before they lost their big man), and to UK(on the road in regulation).  All of those teams are teams capable of going deep into the tourney.  This Tennessee team is just an easy one to like.

 
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Tennessee reminds me of a 3 or 4 ncaa seed quality team that has over achieved for a chance of a 1-2 seed.  The guard play looks solid but not elite, and the two bigs don't overwhelm you with talent, but instead out muscle and out grind you over the course of a game.  3 ball doesn't seem elite to me. Great defense and sound rebounding.  Overall I'd be shocked to see them in the elite 8 in a few weeks but I guess we will find out. 

 

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Seeding will be important and so will UT's effort on defense.  When the defense is there, they are an elite team.  If it is not there, tough sledding.  Who they get will be important.  Bruce Pearl always stated that each Thursday-Sunday week of the tourney was basically a four team tourney that you have to win. If you want to be the champs you have to win three, four team tournaments of increasing difficulty.  Nice way to break it down I think.  I don't think Tennessee matches up well with a team like Syracuse who could be a 6-7 seed and be a tough out for a second round game.  Teams that have beaten Tennessee have decent guard play, but they have at least one elite big man and a defensive stopper.  If they don't have both, I think UT advances against teams lacking one of the two.  Kansas, LSU, and UK have(had in the case of KU...sorry to see them lose their big) elite post players and some talented defensive stoppers.  I do agree that UT's three ball has been inconsistent.  But, their game might be rounding into shape now.  I think the bigger problem was going so long without playing a top 25 opponent and our game just got lax.  Beating a #4 team by 19 is a sign that UT has elevated its game again.  However, at this time of year it would not surprise me to see another regular season loss.  Every, single game from this point forward is going to be against an opponent that has something immediate and tangible to play for.  Tennessees biggest advantage is that they played four straight weeks as the number one team in the country.  They are used to the target on their backs. They have gotten everyone's best. That should help come tourney time.  If UT earns a one seed they definitely did not "back into it." While their game has sometimes been erratic, getting wins over two elite teams(potential one seeds) like the Zags and Cats is no accident.  In order to get a one seed, they will have to defeat MSU, Auburn on the road, and likely have to defeat LSU and/or UK in the SEC tourney.  That is a fairly high degree of difficultly regarding the schedule.  I mean at 26-3, that is pretty consistent w only one of those losses being in regulation.  And yes, UT likes to wear teams down...great teams do.  Alexander definitely has to step up his game while Bone has to continue to play as an elite point guard.  He is arguably one of the top 3 PGs in the nation.  Grant Williams is in the running for SEC and national POY.  I do think the teams remaining on the schedule and the SEC tourney should get this team ready...and that is a compliment to our upcoming opponents.  There is not an easy game in the bunch.  Going to be some grinders in there.  What a great time of year...March Madness, baby!

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First of all, thoughts and prayers for families and communities that experienced loss of life and property yesterday in Alabama.  

Next, does anyone else get annoyed that the media overplays the "we only had 5 minutes warning" statements?  Yes, the actual tornado warnings were issued at 1:58 p.m. local time about 7 minutes before the tornado touched down.  But with SPC pinpointing that area with outlooks a few days prior, Enhanced risk the day before and Tornado Watch at 11:04 a.m. local, there was plenty of warning that this could be a possibility.  I know I'm tuned into the weather because I love watching it, but I think more and more people are becoming complacent with watches and warnings and largely ignoring them.  The WFO's are in a tough spot between calling too many warnings and having people become immune to them - then waiting too late to call warnings and response times are not adequate.

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49 minutes ago, EastKnox said:

First of all, thoughts and prayers for families and communities that experienced loss of life and property yesterday in Alabama.  

Next, does anyone else get annoyed that the media overplays the "we only had 5 minutes warning" statements?  Yes, the actual tornado warnings were issued at 1:58 p.m. local time about 7 minutes before the tornado touched down.  But with SPC pinpointing that area with outlooks a few days prior, Enhanced risk the day before and Tornado Watch at 11:04 a.m. local, there was plenty of warning that this could be a possibility.  I know I'm tuned into the weather because I love watching it, but I think more and more people are becoming complacent with watches and warnings and largely ignoring them.  The WFO's are in a tough spot between calling too many warnings and having people become immune to them - then waiting too late to call warnings and response times are not adequate.

Playing devil’s advocate here in regards to watches not being taken serious by the general public:

In the case of East TN, a good chunk of Tornado and even Severe Thunderstorm Watches that have been issued for the area end up being unnecessary. A big part of that is due to the storms weakening over the plateau and the instability and wind shear rarely seem to be favorable at the same time in the region. It’s gotten to the point that because a lot of the watches in recent years have turned out to be false alarms, it can give the average person the idea of “Well, they seem to issue watches often and nothing bad ends up happening. Why should I take them serious?” So, I understand why some people are skeptical about the watches.

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1 hour ago, Runman292 said:

Playing devil’s advocate here in regards to watches not being taken serious by the general public:

In the case of East TN, a good chunk of Tornado and even Severe Thunderstorm Watches that have been issued for the area end up being unnecessary. A big part of that is due to the storms weakening over the plateau and the instability and wind shear rarely seem to be favorable at the same time in the region. It’s gotten to the point that because a lot of the watches in recent years have turned out to be false alarms, it can give the average person the idea of “Well, they seem to issue watches often and nothing bad ends up happening. Why should I take them serious?” So, I understand why some people are skeptical about the watches.

The link between meteorology and social/behavioral science is an interesting field of study. I'm certainly no expert on that. However,  one of my grad school professors was interested in that field. If I remember correctly,  the correlation between false alarms and people not responding to the next severe threat was pretty weak. For many people, they will either take watches and warnings seriously or not based on their own personal trust in the forecast(or belief in science in general). That trust is probably independent of any previous false alarms. I'm sure we've all heard people say "they never get it right". That statement is obviously false and they probably know that at some level, but you would never get those people to take shelter during a warning. They would probably need to visually confirm a tornado before they would seek shelter.

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You can't make it up. Fv3/ GFS like some big old monster east coast storm in the 12+ day period. But wait you say, that's just American models...

Well...

EPS:

giphy.gif

And look, I totally get it, that's why this is in banter. I'm READY for a week of sunny, dry, and upper 60s (would 70s be asking too much). But it just continues. Has there been a 12 - 15 days out period that just showed torch this winter on the models? 

Also, cool conversation above. I was actually wondering something similar regarding winter weather watches/ warnings earlier after one of our snows this winter (the one we had like 30+ pages for an inch or something, lol; and hey I was heavily involve in rooting for that inch).  I wonder if it is different for winter watches/ warnings since A. they are often issued relatively earlier or B. people who have lived here a while unconsciously have a decent grasp of our climatology/ their local microclimates and feel like they know what is and what isn't typical. 

I just remember the social media response to the TV news meteorologists was U-G-L-Y regarding the January storm that only gave our eastern areas (Blount/ east Knox/ Sevier) a light accumulation and I wondered if that would influence folks' decisions or even producers' decisions at those stations if there was a bigger winter threat later. Also, honestly a little curious how much say producers have for TV mets because I had a buddy who told me that he was told a TV met wasn't allowed to use the word "topography" because it was considered too difficult for the audience and might put people off. Total hearsay and could be BS, but I do feel like not just for weather, but for other topics, TV news stations dilute content to a ridiculous level, so as not to lose all important ratings.  

I guess I sort of get the sense that like most things social media (in this case primarily Facebook and Twitter), people pitch fits on there and in fact their actual responses without that digital outlet would be much more sensible. 

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1. I knew Tennessee would win at home, but I was surprised by the decisive fashion. High energy defense is so important to disrupt opponents. 3 shooting is a tough spot at times. Especially against the zone UT needs to be patient and penetrate. Yup, wear 'em down. At any rate a 1 seed would be justified IMHO. Right match-ups, with intense disruptive D, and UT is Final Four. Wrong match-up, well that's why they call it March Madness. Rooting for the Vols.

2. Kansas is probably looking at a 2-3 seed. They are talking 4-seed but I hope it turns out better, with or without the Big 12 Reg. Season Championship. Always the tournament in KC. Loss of Azubuike is significant, along with other hurdles, but KU keeps fighting. Not being a 1 seed might ease pressure, but again it's about match-ups.

ADDITION: Kentucky should make the Final Four. Young teams gel late, and they are playing well. (At UT was home team revenge.) Cal usually has them ready for tournament time, regardless of seed. I still remember Cal was complaining about a seeding, and at the same time giving much respect to Wichita St. Nice!

3. True studies show false alarms do not contribute to warning complacency. Any studies on social media exhaustion though? Weather is so over-hyped. Everyone posts clown maps and tornadoes like the Day 7 model is money. People also need to know the difference between a watch and warning. Watch the weather but go about normal business. Warning = act now! On the flip side, social media can be a positive to confirm personal danger. 

4. The thought of waiting for the first fall cold front disgusts me. I love summer, but not endless hot humid madness (with July lows) until October. Here's to a comfortable spring!

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Ok, ok...one more and I won't beat the dead horse any longer.  

Excerpts from this article on cnn.com :  https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/05/us/alabama-tornado-survivor/index.html

-----------------------

"He's pretty banged up .Really sore. He said that he heard some loud noises. He didn't even know that there was bad weather in the area. I didn't know either," she said.

 

"My mom told me there was supposed to be bad thunderstorms, possible tornadoes. But I mean, we hear that quite often whenever it rains bad down here," 

------------------------

So sad that people choose not to be aware of potential bad weather.  They did make a good point in the article that they mostly watch Netflix, so maybe not be exposed to local bulletins.  I think social media fills that gap, however, there are too many social media weathermen posting model data to the masses and each of those posts becomes "another time when the weatherman was wrong" in their minds.

I did chuckle a bit when reading the part of the second quote above equating tornado watches with heavy rain.  I often wonder how many people think that way.

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Hey guys! I'm visiting from over in NC and planning to be in Knoxville for a couple of days, I was over here for the UT-UK game Saturday and decided to come back and do an full visit. Not sure if the Knoxville area is represented in this forum much, but was curious on what the must things to do and see are.

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1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Hey guys! I'm visiting from over in NC and planning to be in Knoxville for a couple of days, I was over here for the UT-UK game Saturday and decided to come back and do an full visit. Not sure if the Knoxville area is represented in this forum much, but was curious on what the must things to do and see are.

 Oli Bea for breakfast. (Chicken Biscuit is my favorite, but daily specials can be amazing)

Hiking: House Mountain; Norris Dam State Park; Ijams Nature Center

Walking: Knoxville Botanical Gardens

Mountain Bike: Norris Dam/ South Knoxville Urban Wilderness/ Loyston Point

Breweries/ brewpubs: Last Days of Autumn; Clinch River Brewery; Abridged

BBQ: Sweet Pea's Downtown Dive (Pimento cheese Dip)

If you've never been into the wigsphere Sunsphere, that's worth a visit.

If you really want to get fancy in terms of restaurant Lonesome Dove, but it is $$$$$$$

Oliver Hotel speakeasy is an interesting experience

Maybe take a few minutes to check out Market Square in downtown (food options, boutique type shopping)

Just some of my favs, but we have a few other posters from Knoxville who may chime in too. I live near downtown, so a lot of this is missing probably some great things to do, as we say here, "down west". (West Knoxville)

 

 

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Wind chill this AM was 7 degrees...in March!  The models that kept looking for a winter storm may have been at least in the ball park - systems and cold couldn't link up.  EPS looks really cold in the LR, but I am putting it in banter since it has been rather pedestrian this winter.

Well, plus I wanted to talk some basketball in banter and just decided to throw in a little weather to keep this post street legal.  I hit the sack at halftime.  9:00PM starts on the EC?  No bueno para mi familia.  Well, the Vols turned in another good defensive performance.  Alexander had his best game in weeks.  Admiral balled out as well.  Both are seniors.  Both walked off the floor last night as members of the #5 team in the country and a team hunting the school's first #1 seed in the NCAA tourney.  What a difference four years makes!  Offense sells tickets.  Defense wins games.  Rebounds win championships.   Pat Summit preached that on her way to hanging eight NCAA banners.  The team is going to have to remember that as we head into the final stretch.  An important trip to Auburn on Saturday, and then the SEC tourney.  If LSU loses tonight, the Vols are guaranteed a share of the SEC title and their first back-to-back conference titles in school history. Been an excellent three game stretch w wins at OM, UK, and MSU.  

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Pour one out for @nrgjeff and the Jayhawks. "The Streak" ended with a whimper as Kansas was drubbed by yet another bubblicious Lon Kruger OU team. Credit where it's due - Self has done a great job after losing Azubuike to injury, Vick to a personal matter, De Sousa to the feds, and Grimes, a McDonald's All American, to the freshman yips. 

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Kansas basketball this season has been like winter in Dixie. Hopes were high early, and then, well you know.

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