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Ralph Wiggum

March 3-4, 2019 Snow/Rain Event

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Models continue to tick N. GFS is more than ticks/noise tbh. This is a 200 mile shift N past 2 runs. Why nobody else is batting an eye at all of the red flags here is beyond me. I think I95 is toast and nearby burbs including myself likely in trouble if hoping to achieve the 5-9" totals Iam seeing being forecast. Far N and W burbs look golden far upper Bucks, Berks, Lehigh, extreme N Chesco.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh24_trend.gif

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40 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Kinda strange that their high end map is barely any different than their expected map, especially south of 95.  

 

Probably a decent indication that we are to high.

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I think this is the first Winter Storm Warning for Philly (county) the whole season (I usually archive the watches/warnings) -

Quote

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
401 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-014-016>020-027-PAZ070-071-032115-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0005.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0006.190303T2000Z-190304T1200Z/
New Castle-Cecil-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Freehold, Sandy Hook,
Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown,
Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media,
and Philadelphia
401 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow and sleet expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southern New Jersey, southeast
  Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...Rain and snow develops this afternoon, then all snow
  occurs into this evening. Snow should mix with sleet from
  southeast to northwest by later this evening, with even some
  areas changing to rain especially closer to the coast. Any rain
  or wintry mix changes back to snow before ending early Monday
  morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Snowfall
  rates of up to an inch per hour will be possible between about 5
  PM and 11 PM, especially closer to Interstate 95. While the
  precipitation will end before the Monday morning commute,
  hazardous conditions should still be occurring from the earlier
  heavy wet snow and sleet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

This would pretty much be Philly school-closing criteria.

And as a sidenote, I have been LOLing at Kamu talking Ralphie off the cliff. :lmao:

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18 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

And as a sidenote, I have been LOLing at Kamu talking Ralphie off the cliff. :lmao:

Not on a cliff at all. Expectations have not been high as others with this at all. Lowering my 3-6" totals down to 2-4" until u hit far upper Bucks, Berks, Lehigh, maybe far N Chesco. These temps in the mid 40s today are going to be a killer. Storm has bust written all over it. I am not trolling so I hope it isn't construed as such. I am posting factual model data and if you go back I have included basically every single model so I'm not cherry picking either. And you guys know if this were trending the other way I am one of the biggest weenies on here and would be all over it. Just not seeing all the hype for the city and immediate burbs.

Where is the cold antecedent cold air mass that most big storms have? Asking for a friend ;)

hrrr_T2m_neus_11.png

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not on a cliff at all. Expectations have not been high as others with this at all. Lowering my 3-6" totals down to 2-4" until u hit far upper Bucks, Berks, Lehigh, maybe far N Chesco. These temps in the mid 40s today are going to be a killer. Storm has bust written all over it. I am not trolling so I hope it isn't construed as such. I am posting factual model data and if you go back Inhave included basically every single model so I'm not cherry picking either. And you guys know if this were trending the other way I am one of the biggest weenies on here and would be all over it. Just not seeing all the hype for the city and immediate burbs.

 

I'm teasing you. :P  Even Mike chimed in that they might be "too high".  I think some of this is due to the traditional hanging of a hat on the Euro, which the past couple years has not been the best (maybe some upgrade did it in) and a knee-jerk dismissing of the NAM (which has gotten a bit better the past couple seasons).

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3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I'm teasing you. :P  Even Mike chimed in that they might be "too high".  I think some of this is due to the traditional hanging of a hat on the Euro, which the past couple years has not been the best (maybe some upgrade did it in) and a knee-jerk dismissing of the NAM (which has gotten a bit better the past couple seasons).

My expectations are around 3", more would be a bonus. The point is I'm going to enjoy it. Sure it would be disappointing to get less, but for now there's at least an equal chance of more. I never set expectations at the high end for snow, it's weather. Do I hope the high end happens, of course!

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know snow isnt determined by 2m temps but on that map I posted where is the deep cold? Even way up into Canada temps are marginal and just meh.

The precipitation will begin as light rain at most locations.
However, as precipitation rates begin to increase late this
afternoon, dynamic cooling will cause the rain to change to snow in
northeastern Maryland, central and northern Delaware, eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey by evening.

 

Mount Holly saying things will turn over once the heavy rates come through.

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3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

My expectations are around 3", more would be a bonus. The point is I'm going to enjoy it. Sure it would be disappointing to get less, but for now there's at least an equal chance of more. I never set expectations at the high end for snow, it's weather. Do I hope the high end happens, of course!

If it gets really convective in the right spot and ramps up the rates, you just need a couple hours of that before it goes flying off to the NE.

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2 minutes ago, Newman said:
The precipitation will begin as light rain at most locations.
However, as precipitation rates begin to increase late this
afternoon, dynamic cooling will cause the rain to change to snow in
northeastern Maryland, central and northern Delaware, eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey by evening.

 

Mount Holly saying things will turn over once the heavy rates come through.

I agree it will obviously flip over never questioned that. The mystery is how long we wait? We do not do well while waiting for rain to snow but we excel at snow to rain lol. That changeover time is the key here and how much precip gets wasted.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I agree it will obviously flip over never questioned that. The mystery is how long we wait? We do not do well while waiting for rain to snow but we excel at snow to rain lol. That changeover time is the key here and how much precip gets wasted.

Yeah I'm worried about that even up here. I don't want to waste any qpf. But I think this is one of those storms where you'll get your 3-6+" in a very short time. It'll thump 1-2" rates for 2-3 hours and boom you've verified your forecast. Yesterday's snow was similar up here. We typically see these type of heavy thump events in March where, when rates are heavy enough it piles up quick. The HRRR is typically on the lighter side of precipitation so that's why it is so meager with rain turning to snow.

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Problem also is after the flip guidance is showing a punch of warm air between 850 and 900mb for a while. Balancing act between dynamics and warm air intrusion. Again far N W is a lock.

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I generally will only use the hrrr for general purposes and to spot trends but man if that model is right the way it continues to head there are going to be alot of disappointed folks outside of the far NW burbs. Struggles to get 1" here and a good chunk of that is sleet. Fingers crossed.

Eta: no more posts from me until tonight so I will spare y'all so u can enjoy your Sunday :)

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I think this is the first Winter Storm Warning for Philly (county) the whole season (I usually archive the watches/warnings) -

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Mount Holly NJ401 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-014-016>020-027-PAZ070-071-032115-/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0005.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z//O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0006.190303T2000Z-190304T1200Z/New Castle-Cecil-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Including the cities of Wilmington, Elkton, Freehold, Sandy Hook,Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown,Mount Holly, Jackson, Wharton State Forest, Media,and Philadelphia401 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO7 AM EST MONDAY...* WHAT...Heavy wet snow and sleet expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 7 inches expected.* WHERE...Portions of central and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware.* WHEN...Rain and snow develops this afternoon, then all snow occurs into this evening. Snow should mix with sleet from southeast to northwest by later this evening, with even some areas changing to rain especially closer to the coast. Any rain or wintry mix changes back to snow before ending early Monday morning.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Snowfall rates of up to an inch per hour will be possible between about 5 PM and 11 PM, especially closer to Interstate 95. While the precipitation will end before the Monday morning commute, hazardous conditions should still be occurring from the earlier heavy wet snow and sleet.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weatherconditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If youmust travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in yourvehicle in case of an emergency.The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from canbe obtained by calling 5 1 1.&&$$

This would pretty much be Philly school-closing criteria.
And as a sidenote, I have been LOLing at Kamu talking Ralphie off the cliff. :lmao:


Based on the new normal.....for eastern monmouth....I would expect school is canceled through st Patrick’s day....though if any ice forms expect March to be a write off.

I know it sounds a bit extreme....but our town started brining our sidewalks, driveway and bike paths. IMO, it’s more about some devious collusion with the local auto repair establishments.

Anyway, I relocated my family to the cabin in PA for the remainder of winter. Having RedSky reside in SoMoCo this winter has forced my hand. I mean 70”+ of QPF in a 12 month period with only 1.325879% falling frozen!!!!

Since arriving to the higher elevations...which btw has also suffered a disappointing season, it has snowed everyday since Wed. Some of the best skiing of the season and this next storm should provide a more traditional wintry experience for the area.

Of course we will return to our SoMoCo domicile once schools reopen in April.

I am happy for you RedSky. At least you get to wave the WSW red flag, drive around further eroding the undercarriage of your vehicle while praying the brake lines hold one more week.

Sure it’s not a SoMoCo special.....with 12-18 inches topped with a crusty layer of sleet and ice. No doubt your dreams of 2010, with a 6ft snow base that made millionaires out of everyone who owned a bobcat, have been shattered.

One thing is for sure RedSky. Our county has one absolute.

An endless supply of brine.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I generally will only use the hrrr for general purposes and to spot trends but man if that model is right the way it continues to head there are going to be alot of disappointed folks outside of the far NW burbs. Struggles to get 1" here and a good chunk of that is sleet. Fingers crossed.

Eta: no more posts from me until tonight so I will spare y'all so u can enjoy your Sunday :)

If I'm reading this right, if you take it (that HRRR run) out further, it is right at freezing before midnight (have to obviously wait for later runs to get it through the night). So it's possible that any honkin' but brief heavy rates say between 2 am - 4 am, could get people close.

 

hrrr_T2m_us_fh18-18-03032018.gif

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not on a cliff at all. Expectations have not been high as others with this at all. Lowering my 3-6" totals down to 2-4" until u hit far upper Bucks, Berks, Lehigh, maybe far N Chesco. These temps in the mid 40s today are going to be a killer. Storm has bust written all over it. I am not trolling so I hope it isn't construed as such. I am posting factual model data and if you go back I have included basically every single model so I'm not cherry picking either. And you guys know if this were trending the other way I am one of the biggest weenies on here and would be all over it. Just not seeing all the hype for the city and immediate burbs.

Where is the cold antecedent cold air mass that most big storms have? Asking for a friend ;)

hrrr_T2m_neus_11.png

Steve what you are missing are the DPs - they have been dropping since 6am this morning they were at or above freezing. As precip falls temps will move toward the DP. For sure if lighter precip and without elevation it could be mighty wet or even some liquid at times but during the heavier precip it will be mainly snow N and W of the fall line

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WXSIM for NW Chester County PA

Rain/Snow mix by 2pm quickly to all snow and moderate by 3pm with the temp at 33.7

Heavy Snow by 6pm with 2" accumulated temp 29.5

Heavy Snow at 9pm with 5" accumulated temp 29.2

Heavy Snow at 12am with 8.5" accumulated temp 28.9

Snow tapers to flurries by 2am with 10" of total snow accumulation

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Been under some preliminary virga here for about the last 45 minutes, with dim sunlight through the clouds. Currently 38F, DP 29F.

12z NAMs held course, maybe a slight tick SE, but the start time has moved up since last night to around 2 - 3 pm, with an earlier end time, by midnight it would seem.

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1 minute ago, KamuSnow said:

Been under some preliminary virga here for about the last 45 minutes, with dim sunlight through the clouds. Currently 38F, DP 29F.

12z NAMs held course, maybe a slight tick SE, but the start time has moved up since last night to around 2 - 3 pm, with an earlier end time, by midnight it would seem.

It's kinda weird but it was completely overcast about 20 minutes ago and now the sun has popped out and it is partly cloudy (although some more clouds are starting to fill in).  The radar has a blob over Wilmington going back to the NW into Chester County that is moving this way (I guess that is some of your virga) but am wondering if it stays together, whether it will throw some sprinkles this way.

Temp here is rising and up to 41 (right after the sun came out).

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13 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

It's kinda weird but it was completely overcast about 20 minutes ago and now the sun has popped out and it is partly cloudy (although some more clouds are starting to fill in).  The radar has a blob over Wilmington going back to the NW into Chester County that is moving this way (I guess that is some of your virga) but am wondering if it stays together, whether it will throw some sprinkles this way.

Temp here is rising and up to 41 (right after the sun came out).

I was actually looking for flakes, lol. Didn't feel any water droplets though. I'll check again and get back to you.

Ok, nada falling. The sky is actually a hazy broken overcast at the moment, i.e. not exactly a snow sky.

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I don't want to see the hrrr mentioned once today. That model gave me 4 inches for Friday nights coastal and I got literally a few ice pellets. The hrrr sucks and no one should be using it for anything.

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I don't want to see the hrrr mentioned once today. That model gave me 4 inches for Friday nights coastal and I got literally a few ice pellets. The hrrr sucks and no one should be using it for anything.

Is that your final answer?

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Expecting a lot of 2-3 hr delayed openings for the kiddos tomorrow with the earlier onset today.  Would be wise not to call full day off with sun expected in the am and melting snow of paved surfaces for sure

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