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Ralph Wiggum

March 3-4, 2019 Snow/Rain Event

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5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The RGEM is locked on, could be locked on to ineptitude who knows but the NYC guys love it

I have nothing to lose but waiting for next winter

 

That's the spirit! Could be our last snow of the season, might as well go all in! It's not like we're trying to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear, like we need a minor miracle for it to happen.

 

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Going coating to 2" I 95 and 3-6" north and west. Things look warm, feels damp more than anything. I don't see this beating the high snowfall from November.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS jumped the surface low 60 miles N. Alot warmer along I95. My area now right on the rain/snow line. The wiggle room is gone. 

We already booked out flight to Punta don't tell us it's going to be a hurricane out where's the liquor

 

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

Going coating to 2" I 95 and 3-6" north and west. Things look warm, feels damp more than anything. I don't see this beating the high snowfall from November.

This is a really solid call imho. 3-6" will be the general theme N and W. Decent storm for March. Not a MECS but we take.

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS jumped the surface low 60 miles N. Alot warmer along I95. My area now right on the rain/snow line. The wiggle room is gone. 

What's that phrase? You gotta smell the rain to get the heavy snow? 

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS jumped the surface low 60 miles N. Alot warmer along I95. My area now right on the rain/snow line. The wiggle room is gone. 

Surface low is still east of Cape hatty settle down there it could be the old GFS's terrible warm thermals showing their card finally. Ok i'm done used up my positive for March.

 

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

RGEM is either going to score a major victory against majority of other guidance or eat crow again like the past 2 days' forecasts.

Ralph RGEM was one of only two that got this mornings nothingburger east of I95 right. 

 

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Just now, RedSky said:

Surface low is still east of Cape hatty settle down there it could be the old GFS's terrible warm thermals showing their card finally. Ok i'm done used up my positive for March.

 

Here ya go, I still have a little left. I mean it is Saturday night and all.

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4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Surface low is still east of Cape hatty settle down there it could be the old GFS's terrible warm thermals showing their card finally. Ok i'm done used up my positive for March.

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh30_trend.gif

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hard to tell if the low shifted here or not. I mean there are only 16 lp centers to choose from :lol:

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.png

If it's any one of the ten on the southern semi circle were golden

 

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9 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

I'm rolling the dice that the CMC will be good, lol.

Eta, looks like it tightened up the southern edge too. Still in it though!

CMC has 195 in Jersey as the front and battle ground it's like Saving Private Ryan over here my gear is ready.

 

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Here's some half-baked meteorology.  I've struggled to get much over 4 inches from any storm this winter, so I'll say 4" for me, which guidance seems to agree with. 

 

Edit: I won't be surprised to see more than this, and I sure won't be suprised to see less.  I just think this is a safe bet for northeast chesco.  A lot of guidance does have us on par with the NWS watch for 6-8.  However, we've seen that a few times this year, only to be let down in the >24 hour time period.  

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1 hour ago, kickingupastorm said:

I don’t understand how Ardmore, PA can be under a WSW for 6 to 8 inches, but Philadelphia, PA - which is only 10 miles away - is under a WSW for only 2 to 4 inches. It makes me very nervous. Can someone help this newb out? 

Elevation helps, temp. are borderline, and the gradient is pretty tight between NW Phila and the NW burbs. 6 to 8 does seem high though.

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21 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Here's some half-baked meteorology.  I've struggled to get much over 4 inches from any storm this winter, so I'll say 4" for me, which guidance seems to agree with. 

 

Edit: I won't be surprised to see more than this, and I sure won't be suprised to see less.  I just think this is a safe bet for northeast chesco.  A lot of guidance does have us on par with the NWS watch for 6-8.  However, we've seen that a few times this year, only to be let down in the >24 hour time period.  

I had the thought of beating the Nov. 15th storm (4.6" here) which would be a new high, but I've scaled it back to 3" here, more would be a bonus. I'll be ready with my shovel.

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

RED ALERT RED ALEET

ECM is MUCH colder and south even more so than the RGEM, actually about in line with the RGEM

* ok a little better but hey i never looked at the 12z i assumed it was bad

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019030300/pennsylvania/snow-depth-in/20190304-0500z.html

 

 

Not a huge fan of those maps, its saying I'll have 4inches on the ground at 12z tomorrow when I only have about 2 inches on the ground right now, tops.  But I'll take the possibility of 8" putting me in the 12-16 zone on that map.  

 

Weather underground's proprietary guidance upped totals to 6". They're normally pretty conservative until its surefire, so that's a good sign.  I've noticed their forecasts seem to align the most with the euro.  I'm still going with my initial call, I think at this point I would be surprised to see much less than 4 inches but I dont want to set my hopes on much more. As others have said, this seems to be one of those storms that has decent boom or bust potential for our area.

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4 hours ago, KamuSnow said:

I had the thought of beating the Nov. 15th storm (4.6" here) which would be a new high, but I've scaled it back to 3" here, more would be a bonus. I'll be ready with my shovel.

Didnt even get to shovel on Friday, the sun melted and dried half my driveway, through the clouds, before I got home at 3pm.  Only about 10ft that never gets direct sunlight, and my walkway had snow.  My snowpile is sad too, it had some staying power from all that sleet in late Feb too.  I bet yours is still doing well.  Post a picture Monday morning!  No way you shoveled that whole thing by hand!? 

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1 minute ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Didnt even get to shovel on Friday, the sun melted and dried half my driveway, through the clouds, before I got home at 3pm.  Only about 10ft that never gets direct sunlight, and my walkway had snow.  My snowpile is sad too, it had some staying power from all that sleet in late Feb too.  I bet yours is still doing well.  Post a picture Monday morning!  No way you shoveled that whole thing by hand!? 

Lol, the cat's out of the bag. I have a machine now, used it the second time on Friday. We still shovel a lot, especially if it's less than 2 or 3 inches, and always areas you can't get except by hand. But yeah, those heavy wet March snows last year kind of drove the point home, we sometimes need to work smarter not harder. And we're not getting any younger. So I got a lawn tractor with a loader attachment, heh heh, to help with the piling aspect. It came in real handy with all the dirt work we did last fall too. Plus it cuts the grass real nice. So we're hoping for a plowable snow tonight, of course.

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3 hours ago, RedSky said:

RED ALERT RED ALEET

ECM is MUCH colder and south even more so than the RGEM, actually about in line with the RGEM

* ok a little better but hey i never looked at the 12z i assumed it was bad

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019030300/pennsylvania/snow-depth-in/20190304-0500z.html

 

 

Thanks for the aleet! Good news, the Euro is in its wheelhouse now, I mean 24 hours out it's usually in the money, even this winter.

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