• Member Statistics

    15,568
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SWineman
    Newest Member
    SWineman
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Ralph Wiggum

March 3-4, 2019 Snow/Rain Event

Recommended Posts

Just now, RedSky said:

ECM/NAM/CMC rain so GFS cruelly pulled a Lucy on us

You do realize not everyone on here lives in coastal nj??? Nam is not rain for me

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM/NAM/CMC rain so GFS cruelly pulled a Lucy on us

So the icon, navgem, ukmet are pulling Lucy too? Seems like the solution is likely in between the two camps. NW of I95 SECS/MECS SE of I95 rain. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So the icon, navgem, ukmet are pulling Lucy too? Seems like the solution is likely in between the two camps. NW of I95 SECS/MECS SE of I95 rain. 

The snowfall map gradient on the NAM that I saw in the NYC forum is insane. A little over an inch for the city but SECS or more not far to the north.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3k NAM is textbook. Heavy hitter NW of I95 with rain SE of there. SE PA is essentially all snow this run give or take a couple miles on either side of the Del River. Gotta smell the rain to get the best snows. 

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_57.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3k NAM is much cooler than the 12k NAM. What we're seeing in most modeling, though, is to at first have the shortwave weaker, but it amplifies rather quickly to our SW, thus ushering in the mid level warmth. We want the amplification, it'll bring in the higher ceiling. But it also offers a lower floor with more warmth aloft. The best case scenario for the I-95 is to have the amplification occur just a smidge later in evolution. It would allow for better cyclonic flow into the areas without having to worry about rain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, RedSky said:

CMC through it's run Morch attack of the white walkers lol

 

morch2019.png

My job wants me to go to Connecticut from Chester county at 3am on Monday until thurs.  I hope this verifies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ChasingFlakes said:

My job wants me to go to Connecticut from Chester county at 3am on Monday until thurs.  I hope this verifies.

So do I, although it's the whole 10 days through the following weekend. Would 6" to 12" do the trick?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ChasingFlakes said:

My job wants me to go to Connecticut from Chester county at 3am on Monday until thurs.  I hope this verifies.

That's next week mostly and not just Sunday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's next week mostly and not just Sunday.

I just was looking at models and realized that, came back to make note of that, but you beat me to it.  Plus it's the CMC, so I'll take it with a grain of salt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

So do I, although it's the whole 10 days through the following weekend. Would 6" to 12" do the trick?

6-12" would be great for sun/mon, they've done commercial travel bans for much less this year on 95.  I know there was one in effect when I was driving up to N Vermont on 1/8/19 and I dont know if that amounted to much for SNE or NJ.  Also, 3am is the heart of the storm, so I dont see them sending us into a full fledged snowstorm, even if its raining here.  Not risking my life to fix some crappy concrete floor... especially after seeing all those pileups in the midwest.  :stun:. Edit: this should have been combined into one comment. Good thing we dont have a mod! :lol:

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM is 100 miles SE of 12z still plenty of time to keep going that way 

 

Which also poses the risk of suppression for our area, especially in the far northern and western suburbs. The downside of a system farther SE is that it will be weaker, limiting your max snowfall potential. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said:

Which also poses the risk of suppression for our area, especially in the far northern and western suburbs. The downside of a system farther SE is that it will be weaker, limiting your max snowfall potential. 

Usually when the ECM jumps that far it's an over correction but it's chaos with these models now

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really.....1-4” at the cabin. There must be a curse ...or hex....perhaps some type of damnation combination for monmouth and carbon?

Ok ok...it’s not all that bad....it is the second morning in a row I am enjoying the first cup of coffee while the ground is covered and snow falling.

2.5 at 2100ft.....and counting.... flake by flake






Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Newman said:

If these weakening trends continue, this is going to turn into nothing. 

gfs_asnow24_neus_6.png

We knew those crazy amounts of 15"+ on some guidance was never likely to verify. There was and is a high end limit to this system. In a relatively flat progressive flow you arent going to crawl a system up the coast or allow for the Atlantic to be tapped like a conveyor belt of moisture. So I'm not sure this is really a weaker system as you noted or just a reflection of lower qpf due to the fast moving nature of the system. I dont really recall it being a strong low pressure tbh...more a stretched out wave that is sliding by with stj moisture being transported N along the boundary. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6z NAM looks to be a nice hit I-95 and up the LHV. I believe the GFS is to dry with the QPF in our region. NAM likely overdone here but don’t we usually see things trend wetter as we get within 24 hours?  GFS did not do well for me with the storm last night. Got 4 when it showed 2. 

 

The Sunday event feels like a 4-8 event vs a 2-4 event as the GFS seems to think. 

 

 

6C35AF57-2539-4B29-91A5-B9DFC8A44D33.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, wkd said:

06 euro still looks good.

 

download (2).png

Looks like this includes an inch or 2 from overnight?  Still a nice hit. Euro was the winner for me last night. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thinking tomorrow is a general 3-6" event N and W of I95 with some higher 7" lollis sprinkled in. Will attempt to localize totals later today if/when time permits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.