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Ralph Wiggum

March 3-4, 2019 Snow/Rain Event

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RGEM with a dual low structure. Has a crushing swing thru after dark then another precip max follow behind via a separate wave on the boundary. Surprised there is this much qpf with a strung out look but seems like the GOM is open with some stj feed.

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55 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thinking tomorrow is a general 3-6" event N and W of I95 with some higher 7" lollis sprinkled in. Will attempt to localize totals later today if/when time permits.

The current guidance looks to include most of Bucks and Montgomery in the 3-6" range as well.

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Nam 12z at 38 hours (when I'm supposed to leave for connecticut) 

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_fh38-38.thumb.gif.298f30da1056482412cd3f69d013a379.gif

Nam 12z 48 hour snowfall total - Ferrier rime correctednam3km_asnow_ferrier_neus_fh48-48.thumb.gif.751fecb0a0cbdd1d794e707eb4661a27.gif

Nam 12z 48 hour 10:1 snowfall total

nam3km_asnow_neus_fh48-48.thumb.gif.cd07efc6b0d9cad4175590e607c9f409.gif

 

Much bigger difference in the 12z Nam between the ferrier and 10:1 clown maps.  In the 6z run, the two were more in line with each other.  I recall a previous storm in February where the two diverged, I think we busted.

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We're locking into a solution IMO. On the 6ABC map, I'd shift the axis straight through Bucks and Montgomery counties. Of course things could shift a smidge back NW but not much. SE PA is going to be the jackpot for this one. 5-8" with iso 10" for many immediately NW of the river.

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RGEM and old GFS give eastern Monmouth real actual snow >1.5"  for the first time all winter or should i say spring in a short term forecast. No joke first time I have been in a 4-6" shade inside of 48 hours with these two. That ladies and gentleman is a winter of azz.

 

 

 

 

 

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WATCH'S are now out. Nws going with 4-6 for Berks. Seems reasonable. Judging by how far west the watch's extend, they aren't buying the real progressive models.

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Given last night's sleeting, I'm not too optimistic on Sunday night. I think we're gonna be skirting the rain/snow line again as per the globals. I also just don't see a deep enough cold pool out west to be more confident. Some areas to my north and west will certainly cash in but it's looking to me like another concrete sleet job like March 2017. Honestly I hope I'm wrong though because that stuff was a major PITA to deal with.

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I’d go with 4-8” for everyone N and W of route 1 and the Raritan essentially. 

2-4” from Sandy Hook to Toms River to Wilmington, DE including the Center City.

1-2” for the C and D Canal to LBI and nothing really below that. 

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5 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

Euro was ugly for the I-95 crew. Seems to be the outlier at the moment. 

Like i thought overnight the 100 mile jog was an over correction

 

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17 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

Euro was ugly for the I-95 crew. Seems to be the outlier at the moment. 

I bet it verifies. I'm going with an inch around here as my forecast 

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1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

I bet it verifies. I'm going with an inch around here as my forecast 

Everything else is way better for us, not giving up yet. 

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7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I bet it verifies. I'm going with an inch around here as my forecast 

Smart man. Take the models conservatively and side with the lowest total output. I'm telling ya 9 out of 10 times it works. Might need to lower my expectations for here down from 3-6" to 2-4". All if the models start us as rain and it always takes longer than forecast to flip over to snow and start accumulating. Super fast mover as well.

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Winter Storm Watch now issued for Middlesex County from tomorrow afternoon thru Monday morning but for only 2-4" of snow?? per the watch announcement.

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

I bet it verifies. I'm going with an inch around here as my forecast 

Low placement is excellent for us you realize the biggest problem right? The antecedent air mass is just the smallest amount too mild here in March, a couple weeks earlier in the season this is a high end SECS for both of us. Yeah i had to pull out the if only this was a couple weeks earlier weenie card a personal favorite.

 

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4 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Does it mean a lot of sleet? Because 850s looked ok north of the river.

Near I95 yes then NW lack of qpf 

Feel bad for the MA guys in DC getting their hopes up the NAM is giving them a snowstorm 

 

 

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18z hrrr starts as rain for several hours all the way past state college. Air mass and bl are just warm AF. Not sure we overcome this to get the high end totals. This may very well under produce for many....hope I'm wrong. NAMs were also warmer. We waste some time waiting for the changeover to snow. Rarely do we overperform in these situations. If this were January I would feel ok. Being March now, not too much of a confident feeling. Gonna have to go into upstate PA to jackpot.

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18z hrrr starts as rain for several hours all the way past state college. Air mass and bl are just warm AF. Not sure we overcome this to get the high end totals. This may very well under produce for many....hope I'm wrong. NAMs were also warmer. We waste some time waiting for the changeover to snow. Rarely do we overperform in these situations. If this were January I would feel ok. Being March now, not too much of a confident feeling. Gonna have to go into upstate PA to jackpot.
Well it is the Hrrr at 20+ hours. There is no other model that shows rain that far back.

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18z hrrr starts as rain for several hours all the way past state college. Air mass and bl are just warm AF. Not sure we overcome this to get the high end totals. This may very well under produce for many....hope I'm wrong. NAMs were also warmer. We waste some time waiting for the changeover to snow. Rarely do we overperform in these situations. If this were January I would feel ok. Being March now, not too much of a confident feeling. Gonna have to go into upstate PA to jackpot.
Well it is the Hrrr at 20+ hours. There is no other model that shows rain that far back.

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Can't catch a break this winter. Get sucked in then smacked in the face. The models have been horrendous as well for the most part. Going with 1-3" as this nickel and penny winter continues then cold as balls next week... 

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31 minutes ago, Fields27 said:

Well it is the Hrrr at 20+ hours. There is no other model that shows rain that far back.

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So just ignore the scorching bl that all guidance has to start for several hours? Better hope it is fast and furious to cool the column else alot is going to be wasted on mixing in and around I95 that's all I'm saying. And yeah I know not to buy the hrrr at face value. Still raising an eyebrow tho

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