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WxUSAF

March 1, 2019 Light Snow Chance

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Not much time for tracking lately, but looks like the trend is colder/further south. A skiff of snow would be nice to start the stretch run, or stumble, as the case may be.

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Don’t shoot the messenger but the 6z Euro is very dry and basically has zero snow for LWX.  

538F42C2-16B7-48C1-8370-89F74BCA02E7.png

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Just now, LP08 said:

Don’t shoot the messenger but the 6z Euro is very dry and basically has zero snow for LWX.  

538F42C2-16B7-48C1-8370-89F74BCA02E7.png

Wow.  This thread barely made it 1 hour before killing it.  

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Just now, jaydreb said:

Wow.  This thread barely made it 1 hour before killing it.  

Hopefully just a blip since all other guidance is wetter and has gotten better.  It is worriesome that the Euro has gotten progressively drier since 12z yesterday.

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3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Hopefully just a blip since all other guidance is wetter and has gotten better.  It is worriesome that the Euro has gotten progressively drier since 12z yesterday.

We fling the 'off runs' when they don't show what we want. Yoder rule maybe?

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6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Hopefully just a blip since all other guidance is wetter and has gotten better.  It is worriesome that the Euro has gotten progressively drier since 12z yesterday.

GFS looks pretty dry so not sure we can say all guidance 

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6 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

GFS looks pretty dry so not sure we can say all guidance 

Weenie rule #38....Roll with the wettest of the GFS twins.  :scooter:

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Just now, LP08 said:

Weenie rule #38....Roll with the wettest of the GFS twins.  :scooter:

Course lol. I just find the Euro and GFS to be a pretty good combo when they agree and they do at 6z. Of course this can trend wetter at 78 hours out but we’ll see. I’m not too excited 

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Just now, Jandurin said:

I don't think a single storm has been drier than expected in ages. Maybe this is where our drought starts.

Ummm except for the last one.

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LMAO did you see the radar on the last storm it was exceptional. Just because it didn't rain/snow on your house as much it's not like it was "dry".

 

wow

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5 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

LMAO did you see the radar on the last storm it was exceptional. Just because it didn't rain/snow on your house as much it's not like it was "dry".

 

wow

Last storm blew ass

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6 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

LMAO did you see the radar on the last storm it was exceptional. Just because it didn't rain/snow on your house as much it's not like it was "dry".

 

wow

Radar was decent but dryslot worked in early and our area underperformed qpf. Most models had 1.5-2 inches of qpf. Most of us ended up with 4-6 inches of snow and a little ice on top. Do the math.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Radar was decent but our area underperformed qpf. Most models have 1.5-2 inches of qpf. Most of us ended up with 4-6 inches of snow and a little ice on top. Do the math.

How much of that QPF was supposed to be rain though?  Maybe it was drier than expected overall but snow was pretty much in line with the models (IMBY).  

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This thread is full of the under performer areas and posters who have a history of negativity...uh...I mean keeping it real posts. I'm enjoying my Tuesday already. Topper was right 

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This thread just died a little inside with ass blowing comments. Maybe we should ctrl+alt+delete... :lol:

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

You know this threat isn’t looking good when half the posts are discussing the prior storm.  

Lol it’s a baby threat. The best we can hope for is 1-2” with marginal temps. I mean sure that’s something but this isn’t really too much of an event 

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27 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

you guys need to get your heads out of your yards

Thanks for the advice from an area that has pretty much jacked and maximized every chance this year. There is a HUGE part of the forum where that has not happened. At all. And the last storm DID underperform with regard to the modeled QPF - the spigot turned off at noon when that unmodeled dry slot worked in. 

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43 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

How much of that QPF was supposed to be rain though?  Maybe it was drier than expected overall but snow was pretty much in line with the models (IMBY).  

It performed fine snow-wise, but the point the poster made about there being no storms drier than anticipated in ages needed to be called out when the last storm was basically half the qpf models showed.

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