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snowman19

March, 2019

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Just now, jm1220 said:

I'd be more comfortable with that if the Euro shows it too-it's hi res like those models. Right now the Euro still looks warm here. Hopefully overnight, the models cranking the storm sooner can crash the cold mid level air south sooner. 

Nam gives us more snow than southeast ma that’s hard to believe. I’d toss it for now. They get the better dynamics don’t they?

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I'd be more comfortable with that if the Euro shows it too-it's hi res like those models. Right now the Euro still looks warm here. Hopefully overnight, the models cranking the storm sooner can crash the cold mid level air south sooner. 

The Euro I believe is showing snow with this system, it's the Sunday Night storm that its warm and rain

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1 minute ago, WEATHERMINATOR said:

Nam gives us more snow than southeast ma that’s hard to believe. I’d toss it for now. They get the better dynamics don’t they?

The Nam seemed to dampen out the low and send it east too soon. I doubt with this we'd do better than Boston or SE MA. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The Nam seemed to dampen out the low and send it east too soon. I doubt with this we'd do better than Boston or SE MA. 

Agree the NAM setup seemed a bit odd and out of nowhere with PA/NJ and NYC seeing more snow then SNE but it is under 42 hours so Im not totally writing it off.

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Agree the NAM setup seemed a bit odd and out of nowhere with PA/NJ and NYC seeing more snow then SNE but it is under 42 hours so Im not totally writing it off.

It was the only model 2 days ago with snow tomorrow morning if I recall

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Storm 3 is a soaker on the NAM although still out of range

That's locked as a rain storm, best chance is tomorrow night

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13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I don't think it's locked as anything this far out 

Thought snowgoose wrote that rain was the least likely outcome...this stuff changes from hour to hour. Is something supposed to happen tonight? My expectations are tempered and will not be surprised if my area doesn't see more than 2 inches total for the weekend. It's been that kind of year.

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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Thought snowgoose wrote that rain was the least likely outcome...this stuff changes from hour to hour. Is something supposed to happen tonight? My expectations are tempered and will not be surprised if my area doesn't see more than 2 inches total for the weekend. It's been that kind of year.

Significant snow to rain is the least likely.  If we go snow to rain it might be a trace and done quickly 

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21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

That's locked as a rain storm, best chance is tomorrow night

Nothing in weather is locked

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2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Nothing in weather is locked

exactly and nobody has any idea what exactly is going to happen the next 3 days...

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Best shot of snow is Friday night into Saturday morning for the coast.  Monday is a rain storm.  Basically I like the exact opposite of what you posted in terms of snow

Shocker!

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15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Significant snow to rain is the least likely.  If we go snow to rain it might be a trace and done quickly 

Thanks for the clarification. People seem to be jumping on the Sat event now and throwing in the towel on Sunday.

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5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Thanks for the clarification. People seem to be jumping on the Sat event now and throwing in the towel on Sunday.

Which doesn't really support whats been said on here because from what I've read and what makes sense is if the Sat storm is stronger the Sunday storm will track further south

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Which doesn't really support whats been said on here because from what I've read and what makes sense is if the Sat storm is stronger the Sunday storm will track further south

Some are saying that, some are not. I'm not sure of anything, except that we can't buy a decent storm this year.

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Just now, NycStormChaser said:

It's mostly rain for the city as well

Yea looks nothing like the NAM, but the precip type maps are all over the place and if the GFS is a bit off with the 850s which it easily could be with those dynamics then this could be different 

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7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS way south with storm 3 pretty much supporting the if storm 2 amped storm 3 south theory 

The GFS is so far south this run it may be too far south

Storm 3 could miss the northern parts of this sub forum if tomorrow night really bombs.  I doubt the metro gets missed but certainly could see parts of the HV be too far north 

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19 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said:

It's mostly rain for the city as well

The Euro insists that it’s snow but I think the Euro is still ticking NW.  It’ll be very close for sure.  This is a case where Greenwich could see 7 inches and Oyster Bay sees rain across the Sound.  At this time I would be surprised if NYC saw more than just a brief period of snow at the start and end with tomorrow nights low  

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Storm 3 could miss the northern parts of this sub forum if tomorrow night really bombs.  I doubt the metro gets missed but certainly could see parts of the HV be too far north 

Yea and if tomorrow really bombs than the HV will get hit good tomorrow night, GFS is a nice win-win for the whole region 

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Storm 3 could miss the northern parts of this sub forum if tomorrow night really bombs.  I doubt the metro gets missed but certainly could see parts of the HV be too far north 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_13.png

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