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The Mystical Month of February--Long Range Discussion

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Someone on another site just posted the Euro MJO and it looks good like the CFS.  So far the good looks continue. And, it appears the the ECM gets to phase on 1  on Feb 12 th. at an amplitude of slightly more than 1. 

I think that is ahead of schedule. It then advances to phase 1 .  I did see the crazy orbits off the chart are gone.  But maybe thats not a real issue as long as we get to move through phase 8 and 1 at even a decent orbit of greater than 1 . 

There is also no sling shot back to phase 5. Like earlier in the winter. 

Will be interested to see the EPS overnight for clues to next week. 

  

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54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Very hard to capture timing in a single panel with the large spread but this one does a good job showing that d8-10 is far from a locked in west track. Many good tracks in the mix. 

ds3K4cZ.png

I'm kinda feelin this one... One of my rules of thumb with going from a so-so pattern to a decent hit is when a strong west track precedes it. Has to be strong though to reshuffle upper level heights. A weak storm won't do it. This rule of thumb rarely works when trying to go from a crappy shutout pattern to a good storm. Not the case this time. We're in an "almost good enough" pattern but need something to push it to the next level. 

Not really pertinent, but e20 is an odd distribution.

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13 minutes ago, luckyamaha said:

EURO MJO 

Capture.PNG

You know, this kind of leaves me nervous.  Too much wandering around in the really low amplitudes or even the COD.

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4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

You know, this kind of leaves me nervous.  Too much wandering around in the really low amplitudes or even the COD.

COD after 8 or low amplitude in 8/1 in Feb would be fine I think. 

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6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

You know, this kind of leaves me nervous.  Too much wandering around in the really low amplitudes or even the COD.

I agree .   Unless it corrects to a higher amplitude in a few days.  

Because I too am a bit on edge when I see the orbit so close to the COD

To get a faster and more meaningful change you need a higher amp or orbit.

I guess we see what tomorrow brings.  

I thought psu stated the CFS had a higher amp 

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Certainly encouraging signals; could this weekend's storm serve as the 50-50 for next week's storm? 

Mixed feelings about next Tuesday as I'll be in New England.   Have missed the last two significant snows here .. why not go for three in a row?  

My snow chase isn't going so well so far ... I'll miss this Wednesday's New England storm because I'm still here, will arrive in time for the rainstorm on Saturday (signing up for the moonlight snow shoe walk that evening may not have been a good idea), and should return to DC before next week's hypothetical storm reaches NE but after it brushes or smashes DC. 

That said, I'd be ok with being stuck in northern NH for an extra day or two as you deal with the big one.  ... and if my return flight is delayed maybe I'll experience it up there instead. 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, frd said:

Someone on another site just posted the Euro MJO and it looks good like the CFS.  So far the good looks continue. And, it appears the the ECM gets to phase on 1  on Feb 12 th. at an amplitude of slightly more than 1. 

I think that is ahead of schedule. It then advances to phase 1 .  I did see the crazy orbits off the chart are gone.  But maybe thats not a real issue as long as we get to move through phase 8 and 1 at even a decent orbit of greater than 1 . 

There is also no sling shot back to phase 5. Like earlier in the winter. 

Will be interested to see the EPS overnight for clues to next week. 

  

There is a euro mjo update other than the one that comes out at 9am?

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7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

COD after 8 or low amplitude in 8/1 in Feb would be fine I think. 

Just my humble opinion here... I think the attention to the MJO this year is somewhat to alottawhat overblown. Not discounting the high amp warm phases and the trouble it has caused but there's more to it than that. No single oscillation or teleconnection drives the hemispheric or continental bus. Anything but a high amp warm phase is fine at any time during any winter because other drivers are equally as important. 

The SSW stuff this year takes the absolute f'n cake. All these previous years where weenies would have sold their soul for it but didn't happen and this year it happens nearly textbook perfect and 1)nothing goes as expected and 2) its blamed for our problems. LOL. Oh the irony... it's palpable.

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Did Europe or anyone benefit from the SSW this year? 

Saw somewhere that the return of ENSO-like conditions could lessen the impact of the favorable MJO phases we are forecast to enter.  That would be an ironic ending to winter and unwelcome support for your point. 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Did Europe or anyone benefit from the SSW this year? 

Saw somewhere that the return of ENSO-like conditions could lessen the impact of the favorable MJO phases we are forecast to enter.  That would be an ironic ending to winter and unwelcome support for your point. 

The SSW is artificial just like other things. 

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just my humble opinion here... I think the attention to the MJO this year is somewhat to alottawhat overblown. Not discounting the high amp warm phases and the trouble it has caused but there's more to it than that. No single oscillation or teleconnection drives the hemispheric or continental bus. Anything but a high amp warm phase is fine at any time during any winter because other drivers are equally as important. 

The SSW stuff this year takes the absolute f'n cake. All these previous years where weenies would have sold their soul for it but didn't happen and this year it happens nearly textbook perfect and 1)nothing goes as expected and 2) its blamed for our problems. LOL. Oh the irony... it's palpable.

Honestly, this is the first year I’ve tried to learn something about the MJO so I’m a self described MJO newbie.  It does seem like the prevailing thought is that the MJO has ‘controlled’ this winter...maybe I didn’t pay attention in other years or glazed past it, but did we talk so much about MJO in the past? 

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8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Honestly, this is the first year I’ve tried to learn something about the MJO so I’m a self described MJO newbie.  It does seem like the prevailing thought is that the MJO has ‘controlled’ this winter...maybe I didn’t pay attention in other years or glazed past it, but did we talk so much about MJO in the past? 

Not really , I mean we did,  but this winter has been really been MJO centric ...... Lots of theories. 

I agree with Bob that there are other reasons and causes that give us sensible weather, besides the MJO.

But there have been a couple very unusual and record events with the MJO this Winter. These events have taken place very oddly with a Nino . 

For example,  one I recall was the highest ever amplitude MJO phase 5 in Jan ever, and also the most time as well in that phase .  All my facts my not be 100 % correct but its close. I know bluewave and Don S posted  about it. 

Another bizzare thing was the December SOI.,  positive for most of the month. 

So, many players involved but in a way you can zero in on the PAC and something there. 

I even read something today , maybe it was HM, not sure, but is was about the the Southern Hemisphere and the forcing and a bunch of other stuff. 

Now,  whether is was the MJO that screwed us or other factors that behind the MJO that dictate how it behaves , well that is up to  study and conversation after the winter is over.  

A fascinating winter for sure and frustrating as well. 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just my humble opinion here... I think the attention to the MJO this year is somewhat to alottawhat overblown. Not discounting the high amp warm phases and the trouble it has caused but there's more to it than that. No single oscillation or teleconnection drives the hemispheric or continental bus. Anything but a high amp warm phase is fine at any time during any winter because other drivers are equally as important. 

The SSW stuff this year takes the absolute f'n cake. All these previous years where weenies would have sold their soul for it but didn't happen and this year it happens nearly textbook perfect and 1)nothing goes as expected and 2) its blamed for our problems. LOL. Oh the irony... it's palpable.

Years when we hope for a SSW are usually because the pattern in place is crap and we would beg steal or borrow to have anything disrupt that progression for a reshuffle. This year we had what looked like a good pattern on the way and get the SSW and it was probably at least partially to blame for things going off the rails. Heh Ironic indeed. 

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

Not really , I mean we did,  but this winter has been really been MJO centric ...... Lots of theories. 

I agree with Bob that there are other reasons and causes that give us sensible weather, besides the MJO.

But there have been a couple very unusual and record events with the MJO this Winter. These events have taken place very oddly with a Nino . 

For example,  one I recall was the highest ever amplitude MJO phase 5 in Jan ever, and also the most time as well in that phase .  All my facts my not be 100 % correct but its close. I know bluewave and Don S posted  about it. 

Another bizzare thing was the December SOI.,  positive for most of the month. 

So, many players involved but in a way you can zero in on the PAC and something there. 

I even read something today , maybe it was HM, not sure, but is was about the the Southern Hemisphere and the forcing and a bunch of other stuff. 

Now,  whether is was the MJO that screwed us or other factors that behind the MJO that dictate how it behaves , well that is up to  study and conversation after the winter is over.  

A fascinating winter for sure and frustrating as well. 

 

 

Ultimately it all comes down to the fact that weather simply can't be predicted at long leads. I try hard like many to make educated guesses for long range prediction but it's always a humbling because earth's weather is way too complicated to be accurate as you go out in time.

I do very much agree that the mjo played a role with what's happened. Probably a significant role. But not one single long ranger pointed out that the mjo would be hostile when the season began. Also, there's a reason why the mjo has done what its done and there a reason for the reason and on and on. 

If the mjo is always a significant driver for wx patterns in the winter then long rangers are totally screwed every year because the mjo can barely be predicted 10 days out let alone months. Mod or strong ninas and ninos are fairly predictable so those years are less difficult and long range forecasts have a higher success rate. I really enjoy reading all the detailed long range forecasts. Unfortunately I've seen more bust than be accurate. That's not changing until I'm long gone from this planet, 

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43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just my humble opinion here... I think the attention to the MJO this year is somewhat to alottawhat overblown. Not discounting the high amp warm phases and the trouble it has caused but there's more to it than that. No single oscillation or teleconnection drives the hemispheric or continental bus. Anything but a high amp warm phase is fine at any time during any winter because other drivers are equally as important. 

The SSW stuff this year takes the absolute f'n cake. All these previous years where weenies would have sold their soul for it but didn't happen and this year it happens nearly textbook perfect and 1)nothing goes as expected and 2) its blamed for our problems. LOL. Oh the irony... it's palpable.

I’m never one to root for a sswe unless we’re in a situation like last year with a hostile Nina regime where anything different is good because the outcome is highly unpredictable. Yea they cause tpv displacements and blocking but not always in ways that help us. Most tpv displacements are transient and cold but not that snowy here. The 2014 tpv gets credit when it wasn’t the cause of most of the snow that year. It was an east based epo ridge with a “just good enough” Atlantic side.  And not all blocking is helpful. Last March we got lucky but this year is seems to have caused a west based epo block that has been useless. Maybe the sswe did screw up the modoki nino pattern. Maybe it was doomed anyways. But it certainly did us no good this time around in how it manifested and that seems more common than last March. 

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41 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Did Europe or anyone benefit from the SSW this year? 

Saw somewhere that the return of ENSO-like conditions could lessen the impact of the favorable MJO phases we are forecast to enter.  That would be an ironic ending to winter and unwelcome support for your point. 

 

 

 

 

That’s utter BS.  The whole reason a modoki nino is good is because it favors tropical forcing in the central pacific which also mirrors mjo phase 8/1.   Also since a -soi means pressures are high near the maritime continent that typically prevents strong mjo phases 4-6 which feature convection there.  One of the benefits of a nino is it usually prevents a high amplitude warm phase mjo. This year that failed. But there are these crap posts that imply a nino is bad for snow chances and a return to Nino will kill winter when the failure to get a nino pattern was the problem. I’ve come to the conclusion there are some pro’s who apparently don’t know what their talking about wrt tropical forcing and still use the old super nino broad brush pattern on every nino.  

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14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ultimately it all comes down to the fact that weather simply can't be predicted at long leads. I try hard like many to make educated guesses for long range prediction but it's always a humbling because earth's weather is way too complicated to be accurate as you go out in time.

I do very much agree that the mjo played a role with what's happened. Probably a significant role. But not one single long ranger pointed out that the mjo would be hostile when the season began. Also, there's a reason why the mjo has done what its done and there a reason for the reason and on and on. 

If the mjo is always a significant driver for wx patterns in the winter then long rangers are totally screwed every year because the mjo can barely be predicted 10 days out let alone months. Mod or strong ninas and ninos are fairly predictable so those years are less difficult and long range forecasts have a higher success rate. I really enjoy reading all the detailed long range forecasts. Unfortunately I've seen more bust than be accurate. That's not changing until I'm long gone from this planet, 

Imo the reason the mjo is getting so much attention is because of how anomalous it was wrt expectations. One universal thought for this winter was the mjo would be muted and likely not favor warm phases due to the nino and the relationships I said above. In other words a non factor. Instead it spent record time and record amplitude in warm phases which negated the main advantage of a nino which is to place forcing in the central pacific and mute it near the maritime continent.  So it was a significant driver that behaved very different than expected. 

I don’t know what other factors went into it all and what % was the mjo. But the mjo certainly didn’t help. 

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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ultimately it all comes down to the fact that weather simply can't be predicted at long leads. I try hard like many to make educated guesses for long range prediction but it's always a humbling because earth's weather is way too complicated to be accurate as you go out in time.

I do very much agree that the mjo played a role with what's happened. Probably a significant role. But not one single long ranger pointed out that the mjo would be hostile when the season began. Also, there's a reason why the mjo has done what its done and there a reason for the reason and on and on. 

If the mjo is always a significant driver for wx patterns in the winter then long rangers are totally screwed every year because the mjo can barely be predicted 10 days out let alone months. Mod or strong ninas and ninos are fairly predictable so those years are less difficult and long range forecasts have a higher success rate. I really enjoy reading all the detailed long range forecasts. Unfortunately I've seen more bust than be accurate. That's not changing until I'm long gone from this planet, 

They are screwed lol. But a big part of seasonal is using sst to predict the mjo tendencies. What makes enso events easier to predict is a nino and Nina typically have a more predictable effect on the mjo. Nina’s favor phases 4-6 and ninos favor 8-2 and or muted mjo. This year didn’t go to plan. 

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2 hours ago, luckyamaha said:

EURO MJO 

Capture.PNG

This isn't the Euro

The Euro mjo goes into 8 with a low amplitude but stays out of the COD and goes into 1.

Euro has the mjo going into 8 tomorrow.

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