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NorEastermass128

February 2019 Discussion I

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

As a whole its a Leon look 11 to 15 

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download (1).png

It is. With a 0.00000000000000000001SD   -NAO    

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42 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS and GEPS couldn't be more different LR. I do not have days 10 plus for EPS.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_65.thumb.png.f8af66d55551cf4dc47e66f5297e0174.pnggem-ens_z500a_us_65.thumb.png.f2604fc917149bf9ee9f4e78f462512f.png

Does anyone seriously look at the GEPS?  I treat that like the JMA or KMA models.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is. With a 0.00000000000000000001SD   -NAO    

Straight La Niña pattern there. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Just hope something breaks right. 

Where is the huge ridge over Idaho and British Columbia that the weeklies had...Jesus, its like the total opposite out there. I guess we'll see if it's temporary (like less than a week) or not but that is really bad by the weeklies for 2nd week of February. 

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

As a whole its a Leon look 11 to 15 

download (2).png

download (1).png

I'm sick of Leon too. I'd like to see some negative anomalies to our north for better confluence/arctic sfc highs.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Where is the huge ridge over Idaho and British Columbia that the weeklies had...Jesus, its like the total opposite out there. I guess we'll see if it's temporary (like less than a week) or not but that is really bad by the weeklies for 2nd week of February. 

I looked at some of the VP anomalies at 200 and now they show some forcing between 135E and the dateline which I suppose may cause the ridging more near AK. I can't help but think the tropics are screwing that up...something the seasonal models just can't resolve. We wanted Nino to be weak, but it's almost having no typical effect like we would expect. I mean that could be wrong too and maybe it trends more +PNA-ish...but interesting.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I looked at some of the VP anomalies at 200 and now they show some forcing between 135E and the dateline which I suppose may cause the ridging more near AK. I can't help but think the tropics are screwing that up...something the seasonal models just can't resolve. We wanted Nino to be weak, but it's almost having no typical effect like we would expect. I mean that could be wrong too and maybe it trends more +PNA-ish...but interesting.

The ensembles have definitely been biased too negative on PNA this year in the long range but I doubt it's so much that it will totally reverse a trough out there. I guess even slightly less troughing there would be good for us though considering how cold Canada is. 

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30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Straight La Niña pattern there. 

This is the year of the faux El Nino, SOI struggling to go negative is a testament to that

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Where is the huge ridge over Idaho and British Columbia that the weeklies had...Jesus, its like the total opposite out there. I guess we'll see if it's temporary (like less than a week) or not but that is really bad by the weeklies for 2nd week of February. 

ice

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Here's the nadir on the NAM's FRH grid for ORD ...    48000644502 -3220 262821 80    71  70  68

For lay-folks ..that's bottoming out at -29 C at the lowest sigma level...usually that's within 20 mb of the 2-meter ...  Given to the synoptics ..that's probably close to what it actually is IN the 2-meter.. maybe -27 C ...   so, -27 C in this crude technique offers up a more corporeal approximation of -16.6 F at hour 48.   seems to match MOS closely enough ..  

I just don't think that can physically happen at Logan...  ?   ...Beyond some super exotic rare set of circumstances, there's too many moderating influences at Logan for that depth of cold.  

If the wind is NW ... nope. That's down slope.  If the wind is W to NW ...nope...that means both that it took a longer route over the GL, but even if some how the GL were ice-locked, the air mass still was over mid latitudes too long on the trajectory to maintain that SD of -16 F at the Earth's surface. 

NE?  obviously no chance with the ocean right there.  

About the only way possible is to have the air mass come straight N ... But even then, the time it took to load the cold as far SE in the Canadian Shield as midriff Quebec might also 'taint' the air mass to "just" -10 ... 

I dunno ...spit ballin' here but it seems like maybe this air mass over ORD might not really ever happen here. 

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Really banking on February 10th- March 10th. -AO, hopefully -NAO, phase 7/8 will help. I can see most parts of SNE getting around 40 inches in that time period if things break right.

I’m at 18 inches on the year now so another 40 would put me at average or slightly above average for snowfall. 

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That is a major icing signal on the euro for D8. Maybe even sleet/snow if the cold air ends up a little deeper. 

Its basically the TyphoonTip 24 hour warm front at day 6 that gets rudely interrupted by the Arctic front sagging back south and sticking us on the cold side despite southeast ridging...not uncommon in the -EPO setups with some western troughing. 

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yeah..late to the party on that guidance's cycle but ...we can't say this signal isn't reasonably well rooted -  

definitely an interesting period of time D6+ for reasons I mentioned elsewhere and also Will's contribution.  

That big giant warm ridge was suspect from the get go by the way. We'll see how things shake out here...   But, ice-storm particulars or even success is an utter crappes shoot at this time range, though the pattern recognition has some merit.  As Will said, that could easily be just cold rain or more snow and sleet... depends how deep the cold gets and impossible to know frontal axis. 

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heh... interesting.  That's not even done D10 ... That high is collocated under a nasty mid level blocking node and gains mass D9 --> 10...then, all that wind max still has to feed NE along the frontal drape out of the lower OV... 

I wouldn't be surprised if "D11" features a flat wave snow event just leaving -

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Actually verbatim (yeah I know...Day 6+)...that is literally just one afternoon in the mid 40s to maybe breaching lower 50s (sunshine dependent) after a faux radiational cooling morning scraping the windshield and then right back into the Arctic. 

Regardless of the ultimate outcome, it does demonstrate what Tip has been saying (and me agreeing) that these 2-4 day negative EPO warmups can be very untrustworthy. We don't tend to sustain warmth when just north of the border has been cold-loaded in the pattern. 

The -EPO/western trough couplet can be a recipe for cutters, but that is different than sustained 3-4 day warmups. Usually it's just a warm sector from the storm itself and that's it...and sometimes, like the euro shows, no warm sector at all once the Arctic front says back down. 

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Keep in mind ...only bothering to mention because a, I think that period being in contention is perhaps a bit more confident in its own rite (more so than any specific event or event characteristics therein), and b, said contention is prooobably deserved for a dearth-frustrated and weary brethren of beleaguered hopefuls :) 

In a typical frequency ... this is probably just a pleasant afterthought ....  it just happens to have GEFs support - I'm a big fan of desperate sources converging on a signal.  Shows multiple physical approaches landing on a a similar idea, which can' be a bad thing.   

Now if we could get the oper. GFS on the same page, and then have everything else join in ... and then have them all never vary the rest of the week.   No problem - right?

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I love that look though - gotta admit to fun sometimes too  ... :rolleyes:

I could see it 70 F at RIC ... while it's 30 with an inch of accretion at ORH  ... circa D9.67

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I'm sure enough people are about ready to give the NAO the finger....but there's also been a steady trend the last 24+ hours to hold the big PV vortex that swings through our region this week over northeastern Labrador/N of New Foundland instead of slingshotting it back into Baffin Island region....so what it does by getting stalled south like that is suck the ridging near Iceland back across Greenland and even into the Davis strait and that is a pattern that will tend to press any cold-loaded airmasses in Canada east and southeast rather than allowing warm air advection to overcome the southern periphery. 

Essentially, we're getting some weak, but impactful NAO ridging next week. 

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You could even reasonably argue that D10 construct over SE Canada is a quasi -NAO ...  just SW biased.  The fact that the model could set that up ..."might" just be a detection of some underlying physics hemispheric parameters for blocking ... 

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Yeah that setup looks hideously gloomy. Hopefully that d6 s/w over ON vaporizes before it can advect that airmass back our way in its wake.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah that setup looks hideously gloomy. Hopefully that d6 s/w over ON vaporizes before it can advect that airmass back our way in its wake.

Ha ha .... so, you're officially checked out on winter  - 

yeah, stuck fronts with light sleet and ZR for three days may not be everyone's cup of tea..  Definitely, that would be true if it were 33 and raining the whole way.  

I guess for winter enthusiasts ... you set that up and play your hand.. Everyone else is probably going to be just that...miserable. 

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 That is straight up Niña on the ensembles. LOL Nino.  We definitely have a cold source close to us and as Will said that vortex has been sort of trending to stay more static in place south west of Greenland. Our enemy and target will be SE ridging. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is a major icing signal on the euro for D8. Maybe even sleet/snow if the cold air ends up a little deeper. 

Its basically the TyphoonTip 24 hour warm front at day 6 that gets rudely interrupted by the Arctic front sagging back south and sticking us on the cold side despite southeast ridging...not uncommon in the -EPO setups with some western troughing. 

Let’s bang out our 2nd icestorm of the season 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s bang out our 2nd icestorm of the season 

I think you had an "event"  ....  no ice "storm"  For that you have to lose power and smell chainsaw smoke mixed with latent heat of phase change

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha .... so, you're officially checked out on winter  - 

yeah, stuck fronts with light sleet and ZR for three days may not be everyone's cup of tea..  Definitely, that would be true if it were 33 and raining the whole way.  

I guess for winter enthusiasts ... you set that up and play your hand.. Everyone else is probably going to be just that...miserable. 

I’ve been checked out since day 1. I was hoping for a low precip season, and instead it’s been way above normal. No one wants to hear about my coop drainage issues again though. :lol:

But yeah, I’m fine with some snow, but I could do without the crap events and 1-3” from every cutter. I fell on my driveway Friday and totally oliterated a bird feeder in the fall. When the driveway builds up as much ice as Lake Winni that’s usually when I start pulling my hair out.

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