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January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker


Ji

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42 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro is a disaster for friday but even if it wasnt a disaster...the entire event is a disaster anyway...would of been fun though seeing light snow with temps in the teens. Very dissapointing

How can it possibly be a disaster when it always looked like a weak sauce event on guidance?

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Just now, nj2va said:

Outside of the mountains and perhaps isolated spots along the M/D line, people shouldn't expect more than some pixie dust flurries in the area.

From the time it showed up on guidance (to me) it had the look of a virga-fest/pixie dust deal with an upside of maybe an inch. The highlands will probably squeeze out a few inches.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

From the time it showed up on guidance (to me) it had the look of a virga-fest/pixie dust deal with an upside of maybe an inch. The highlands will probably squeeze out a few inches.

Yeah, I thought the fact that it was juicing up for the mountains (over 0.5" QPF) was a positive for this area but the 0.1"+ stuff is targeting central PA.  At least your puddles should be well frozen by then.  ;)

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11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

From the time it showed up on guidance (to me) it had the look of a virga-fest/pixie dust deal with an upside of maybe an inch. The highlands will probably squeeze out a few inches.

Hey hey. Stop the negativity. You know we’re  getting NAM’d for this event at some point. We’re definitely in line for a severe heavy pummeling of flurries. :lol:

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Just now, nj2va said:

Yeah, I thought the fact that it was juicing up for the mountains (over 0.5" QPF) was a positive for this area but the 0.1"+ stuff is targeting central PA.  At least your puddles should be well frozen by then.  ;)

This thing has no real mechanism for significant lift other than terrain. Outside of the mountains its a wimp.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I have noticed on a few runs some hints of weak coastal development- sort of looks like an inverted trough. That's always a high probability way to score some snow at this latitude. :lol:

Interesting to look at the positive snow depth change from the 18z 12k. You can kind of see some kind of coastal enhancement... Wouldn't be a bad little event considering it's been nothing up to this point.  

namconus_asnowd_neus_23.png

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Just now, MD Snow said:

Interesting to look at the positive snow depth change from the 18z 12k. Wouldn't be a bad little event considering it's been nothing up to this point.  

namconus_asnowd_neus_23.png

Yeah if there is some coastal enhancement then not out of the question there could be an area of maybe 1-3". These sorts of events can do that, but generally further north. Seems to happen fairly often in coastal NJ.

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Mount Holly's take on the weak ass Friday deal- almost exactly matches what my thoughts are/have been. I would gladly take a half inch though lol.

Friday-Friday night... Low level Canadian high pressure remains nearby. Modest WAA in the low levels, but it will be another chilly day. We will also have a shortwave approaching from the northwest. This is not a strong disturbance and has limited lift, but some light snow is likely Friday afternoon and evening especially in central and southern parts of the area. Accumulations look to be near or below an inch.

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10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Icon also has the coastal enhancement piece for friday @C.A.P.E..

Northern tier and the eastern shore might be able to eek out an inch or so.

Maybe. That would be the top end with this. My forecast is for a half inch or less. That seems completely reasonable. I will look forward to an an hour of pixie dust with a microscopic dusting lol.

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From LWX (4:33 AM)

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will traverse the area Friday. It`s weak, but there`s
notable warm advection in the 850-700 hPa layer, tucked under a
modest coupled upper jet structure and mid-level PVA. Given the cold
temperatures, any precipitation that falls will be snow and have no
trouble sticking. East of the mountains, lift is focused in the
dendritic snow growth zone, so despite low-level dry air believe
there should be at least some steady light snow in the I-81 corridor
and near/north of US-50. Along and north of I-70, moisture and lift
are a bit better and this is where the best chance for plowable snow
exists east of the mountains.

As far as the ridges of the Allegheny Highlands go, lift here is
actually a bit below the dendritic snow growth zone. Cold
temperatures should yield ratios close to 18:1, but with low
inversion heights and less than ideal wind trajectories, current
most likely forecast is for sub-warning level snow (solid advisory,
3-6"). Therefore, have opted not to go with a watch at this time.
Advisories will likely be needed over the mountains and in northern
Maryland (especially given the cold ground and potential impact) for
Friday, if current forecast projections remain on course.

 

 

StormTotalSnowWeb1.png

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22 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

3k "juiced" up a little at 12z as well.  Would be nice to see mesos push this to .2 qpf throughout the day.  Probably a stretch but that would really make this a nice little event.

2VfS7xI.png

I’m guessing some higher ratios could definitely push this into an SP advisory level event (stats padder). LOLz. 

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Just now, Ji said:

6z RGEM and 3K NAM is nice for Loudoun. COuld see 1 inch plus of crystal 

I was going to mention that, the GFS was starting to juice up a tad but the NAM had zero until 12z today and now shows a little. Ridiculously cold grounds plus cold air temps could create a nice snow globe. You really can't hate that despite all of the doom in the LR we still snow

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