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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

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1 hour ago, anotherman said:

I think we are about to enter the best part of the winter for all of us.  Anyone out there?

There is enough change happening w/ the base state to agree that things should get better, but some models are reluctant to come around to the better blocking and ridge/trough axis.  Ensembles show better times, but many ops are still flip flopping, which gives many reason to trust seasonal tendency over a good looking model (and rightfully so).  Gut says by early next week we should see ops start to look like ens beyond a couple day lead....so long as we progress into P8 Mjo and EPO/NAO combo starts to push the boundary further south. 

Will it be enough.....?? 

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Check out this 12Z models depiction of icing and CAD.  Has the 540 line driven well North and radar shows rain but the surface temps at near or below freezing for most which indicates freezing rain though at these temps it should not be one that takes down too many power lines in the LSV.  Northern PA would be for a major ice storm.   Both of these are at forecast hour 99/about 10AM Tuesday. 

 

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For this next system I would expect cad winning out.  This far out I would not pay attention too much at 2m temps.  That high too our north should keep us east of the mountains stuck in the cold air for awhile. To me this is a snow to ice classic around here.  Should things hold the way they are now come Sunday models should start showing 2m temps staying at or below freezing east of the mountains more than they show right now.  Then again things could go the other way as well weaker high , storm track ....

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4 hours ago, bubbler86 said:

Check out this 12Z models depiction of icing and CAD.  Has the 540 line driven well North and radar shows rain but the surface temps at near or below freezing for most which indicates freezing rain though at these temps it should not be one that takes down too many power lines in the LSV.  Northern PA would be for a major ice storm.   Both of these are at forecast hour 99/about 10AM Tuesday. 

 

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Lol slipping in der ICON. I know because the ICON model on TT only has algorithms for rain and snow on it's P-types. There would be all kinds of pretty colors over 3/4s of PA if it had sleet and freezing rain ptypes. I will say the Euro is similarly cold with 2m temps, at least in PA. 

The European continues to look the most significant in the winter storm department. It really anchors the cold not only at the surface but up to 925mb as well with some surface low reflection on the Mid-Atlantic coast. Hour 102, which is the best 6hr precip frame, still has 850 temps below zero east of the Laurel's. It's implying significant snow up front over the central and LSV counties (at least 3-6"). Hour 108 shows sub 0ºC 850 temps evacuated from C-PA but 925mb subfreezing temps still solidly anchored. Euro evolution is a snow to extended sleet/freezing rain type event with probably a turnover to rain at the very end southern tier and Laurels. I really like the alignment of things at 925mb (3000ft). I mean I really don't like the primary low west of PA thing but with the low so far to the west in the western lakes region and the secondary development trying to take place at the Mid-Atlantic coast.. the more easterly wind component allows for the cold air to bleed in efficiently from the NE via ageostrophic flow. It's a great look if extended significant wintry mix events are your thing. The GFS is doing the same general thing, but once again despite actually having a stronger high to the north (although high is a bit more NE), it's much warmer overall at all the important levels. So it still has a good chunk of front end frozen but is much more of an extended transition to plain rain. 

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54 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Lol slipping in der ICON. I know because the ICON model on TT only has algorithms for rain and snow on it's P-types. There would be all kinds of pretty colors over 3/4s of PA if it had sleet and freezing rain ptypes. I will say the Euro is similarly cold with 2m temps, at least in PA. 

 

Yep and not only because it seems to have the best handle on the CAD (at least when I sent that out) but I do not share the opinion of some other posters that it is of no value.  I question its short term forecasting scores but between 3 and 10 days I would argue that it has done the best recently, concerning placement of features and general sensible results, of any Global Op Prog. And I say this on the heels of reading that the GOV has dropped plans to bring the FV3 online as the primary American Global for an "indefinite" amount of time.  So we have the CMC (terrible in my book), Euro, GFS, Icon, JMA and UK.  Not exactly an inspiring bunch right now.

 

Getting close to Meso time the ETA...opps I mean Nam...off to a lackluster look but I agree with you that the whole PA crew should be in line for a plowable snow right now.  I think the biggest risk of it is not a wamer solution vs. the low winding up so far West that the total amount of qpf is not what we are thinking.   As you alluded to before as long as it does not get too close any SSW winds will not scour out the cold as quickly as many models are suggesting.

 

 

 

 

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Most models today support the idea of good front end snow for CTP early this week.

The Euro at 12z looked good. Tonight the NAM & Canadian also support the Euro.

Still lots of details to work out over the next couple of days.

7424243B-0103-4A50-B865-ECA3F9F9659D.png

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The MJO is moving into phase 8 & 1 over the next couple of weeks. The SOI will be going negative as well. 

The models will respond & the best period of winter will be from mid February to mid March.

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20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The MJO is moving into phase 8 & 1 over the next couple of weeks. The SOI will be going negative as well. 

The models will respond & the best period of winter will be from mid February to mid March.

The best part of a steak is the meat.;) I hope it shits moose biscuits and kanjer cakes.

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The 0z Euro still looks good for CTP snow early this week. We appear to be on the right side of the boundary for a front end thump of snow.

This should be followed by mixing & then go over to rain towards the end of the event.

Here is the 0z Euro & 0z EPS, which seem to agree with each other.

D727CD9F-7AE1-4081-ACD9-75781C1758DB.png

E04DF9BF-3302-4128-814E-1374C11AFD0F.png

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The full EPS 15 day run also produced the best 15 day EPS snow map that I have seen yet this season.

It has been consistently upping the snow totals for the last few days for our region.

 

E3C7E1D6-0E3A-43D0-93C7-319D7899757B.png

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8 hours ago, canderson said:

The GFS shifted like 300 east miles between 18z and 0z. 

lol 

good job, good effort 

isnt it crazy how Pappa G can be so erratic as we get within 96.  While I'm in favor, it just makes you scratch your head.

Starting to think we have front end potential here.  Still enough time for a couple subtle shifts to mute out the deluge that may follow and turn it into light rain/zr.

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2 hours ago, Flatheadsickness said:

And don't over use cannabis sativa or even worse indica.

You know why it’s called “indica”, right? Because it will have you in da couch 

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Saw a post about the GFS moving east by 300 miles ...I missed that one.  It was on the Western side of MI at 0Z and now the Eastern side so some East but maybe 100-125 miles. It was in a similar place at 18Z.    Probably the worst look. That UK snow map seems like fantasy to me as we have seen the UK cross over to the less snowy solutions in the last 36 hours over and over...UK's depiction is more something you would see with a low coming from Alabama moving East/North East vs. a western cutter.   My biggest worry is the EPS and Euro keep moving the snow farther and farther north.  They still show 4-8" here but the no snow line is not far from the Mason Dixon.  I think that is less of an issue with temps and more an issue of the orientation of qpf and less falling here.   Still think we get a plowable followed by a period of rain and temps 35-40.    The Nam shows only a couple inches for the Mid and Upper part of the LSV which is worry. The TT maps for the Nam are almost all sleet and Frz. 

 

Edit-All these snow maps include the 2-3" (except the Nam of course)  most forecast for Sunday night so the Tuesday event is really a 3-6" type deal vs. 4-8 like I mentioned above. 

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Saw a post about the GFS moving east by 300 miles ...I missed that one.  It was on the Western side of MI at 0Z and now the Eastern side so some East but maybe 100-125 miles. It was in a similar place at 18Z.    Probably the worst look. That UK snow map seems like fantasy to me as we have seen the UK cross over to the less snowy solutions in the last 36 hours over and over...UK's depiction is more something you would see with a low coming from Alabama moving East/North East vs. a western cutter.   My biggest worry is the EPS and Euro keep moving the snow farther and farther north.  They still show 4-8" here but the no snow line is not far from the Mason Dixon.  I think that is less of an issue with temps and more an issue of the orientation of qpf and less falling here.   Still think we get a plowable followed by a period of rain and temps 35-40.  

 

Edit-All these snow maps include the 2-3" most forecast for Sunday night so the Tuesday event is really a 3-6" type deal vs. 4-8 like I mentioned above. 

 

 

 

 

I think the models are just in the stage of narrowing the goalposts. Most of us north of the MD line have not budged with snow amounts for the last couple of days. 

The CTP forecast discussion this morning seemed confident in a few inches of snow for most of us. They are also worried about a prolonged period of mixing with ice, & think many of us may struggle to get above freezing for most of the day on Tuesday. 

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14 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Saw a post about the GFS moving east by 300 miles ...I missed that one.  It was on the Western side of MI at 0Z and now the Eastern side so some East but maybe 100-125 miles. It was in a similar place at 18Z.    Probably the worst look. That UK snow map seems like fantasy to me as we have seen the UK cross over to the less snowy solutions in the last 36 hours over and over...UK's depiction is more something you would see with a low coming from Alabama moving East/North East vs. a western cutter.   My biggest worry is the EPS and Euro keep moving the snow farther and farther north.  They still show 4-8" here but the no snow line is not far from the Mason Dixon.  I think that is less of an issue with temps and more an issue of the orientation of qpf and less falling here.   Still think we get a plowable followed by a period of rain and temps 35-40.  

 

Edit-All these snow maps include the 2-3" most forecast for Sunday night so the Tuesday event is really a 3-6" type deal vs. 4-8 like I mentioned above. 

 

 

 

 

It sure would be nice if those snow maps didn't exist.   Most people would be more realistic of the amount ofsnow that was truly going fall. 

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4 minutes ago, daxx said:

It sure would be nice if those snow maps didn't exist.   Most people would be more realistic of the amount ofsnow that was truly going fall. 

After falling for the TT failure at the start of winter I have found Pivotal Weather's maps to be more realistic but yea if someone shows a map for all snow until a certain point it includes all snow not just the storm du jour.    Outside snow maps I think TT is much more user friendly and easier to see on mobile devices.  TT's are more fun to post though as evidenced by the Wed rain event where FV3 showed 4-6" in eastern PA :-).

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I get your point about snow maps, especially from longer range. The ensembles should be looked at for a range of possibilities. They do however have more value within a few days of an event.

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The 6z GEFS shows the goal post narrowing that I mentioned. The large hits & whiffs are gone. Almost all of the ensemble members show 3-5 inches of snow for most of us by the end of Tuesday.

9559BA9B-CC22-4B7D-B606-ECE9BD01C91E.png

8EE8D52D-E641-4DB4-A47C-F9EC8AFCAFEB.png

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I really like CTP’s current discussion regarding Monday night/Tuesday. 

The main system of consequence will affect our region Monday
night and Tuesday, in the form of a storm system tracking from
the southern Plains northeastward through the Great Lakes
region. A storm track of this nature well west of the
Commonwealth should ultimately bring in enough warm air aloft
for a transition from snow to a wintry mix. However, with a
stubborn cold surface high sitting up across eastern Ontario and
Quebec, surface-based cold air will be tough to dislodge over
much of central PA east of the higher ridges. The strength of
the northerly ageostrophic flow late Monday night into Tuesday,
along with model sounding profiles, indicate that a prolonged
period of sleet is possible, with some freezing rain as well.
At this point, a general 1-4" of snow seems quite plausible
Monday evening, followed by a coating of ice via sleet and
freezing rain later Monday night and Tuesday. Certainly, a messy
morning commute Tuesday seems likely, so stay tuned for more
specific details as this event nears.

It`s questionable how much of the region is able to rise above
freezing Tuesday afternoon, with some of our far western and
southern areas the most likely candidates to see a period of
rain, before drier air aloft comes in.

 

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3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I get your point about snow maps, especially from longer range. The ensembles should be looked at for a range of possibilities. They do however have more value within a few days of an event.

Don't get me wrong they are fun to look at but to use them seriously that is something I won't do.  If they were accurate I would be buried alive by now.

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3 hours ago, Flatheadsickness said:

The best part of a steak is the meat.;) I hope it shits moose biscuits and kanjer cakes.

 

2 hours ago, Flatheadsickness said:

And don't over use cannabis sativa or even worse indica.

What the ****?

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Just now, daxx said:

Don't get me wrong they are fun to look at but to use them seriously that is something I won't do.  If they were accurate I would be buried alive by now.

Yes, I know what you mean. We would be constantly shoveling all of our digital snow!

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, I know what you mean. We would be constantly shoveling all of our digital snow!

I wish I could figure out how to live in the time frame "10-15 days" as it would be snow every other day it seems. 

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