CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Well if you go by this run you guys mix in the Capital district but I ain't going there yet but man, thats a lot of warm air being drawn up from the Gulf! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Well if you go by this run you guys mix in the Capital district but I ain't going there yet but man, thats a lot of warm air being drawn up from the Gulf! Wow. I think the RGEM is all alone with that much of a warm fetch. Although experience here is that the warm over running most time exceeds what is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Gorizer said: Wow. I think the RGEM is all alone with that much of a warm fetch. Although experience here is that the warm over running most time exceeds what is modeled. Yeah it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 From DR. Maue site, a blog post! That has to be the Euro for sure so there you go Gorizer so not far off from the Rgem in fact, so something to watch as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This 5,000 foot temperature map highlights the aforementioned airmass clash. Temps aloft just off NYC will be around 50 degrees, while the air above Buffalo will sit at around -10. This extreme temperature gradient will provide the basis for strong dynamic lifting, while the tropical moisture enables heavy precipitation and the Arctic cold lets much of that precipitation fall as snow away from the coast. Map via weather.us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Good read: A more complete picture of the available dynamics is visible with the Synoptic Composite map. The shading is a measure of both heat and moisture. Red/orange shadings represent warm and humid air while blues and purples are colder and drier. Already we can see the thermal clash discussed above. However we can also see the surface pressure gradient by looking at the white isobars (lines of equal pressure). Note the tightly packed isobars across the Northeast as our storm system runs into an area of very strong Arctic high pressure. Additionally, we can look to the black lines and arrows for clues about the upper level setup. The black lines represent equal 500mb heights, while the arrows are vectors for 300mb winds. The strong trough axis is clearly visible in the height field just west of the surface storm, and a strong jet streak is also noted extending from the Mid Atlantic up into New England. Map via weather.us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS looks nice, basically 1" of QPF for the entire forum then lake enhancement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Appears that BUF and a few on the forum got NAMMed last night. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: From DR. Maue site, a blog post! That has to be the Euro for sure so there you go Gorizer so not far off from the Rgem in fact, so something to watch as we get closer. And you'd think he could build his algorithm to show IP. Those maps annoyingly basically only show snow or zr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 "Everyone knows you never go full NAM" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 20 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Well if you go by this run you guys mix in the Capital district but I ain't going there yet but man, thats a lot of warm air being drawn up from the Gulf! If the low crosses the lower Hudson valley as depicted in the rgem, then we will sniff sleet for a little bit. I usually use the rgem as my last bastion of hope during SNE snowstorms where I'm on the outside looking in. Usually quite amped. If other guidance follows suit then will certainly be worth considering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS over KPHL, uh oh, lol, moved NW as well and now right in line with the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 In all seriousness, that was a pretty abrupt amplification of the southern stream on the 12z models. You can see snow developing much further into the midwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS up to 1.25-1.5" now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 22 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: From DR. Maue site, a blog post! That has to be the Euro for sure so there you go Gorizer so not far off from the Rgem in fact, so something to watch as we get closer. Keeps Albany airport in the clear, as it's in the northern part of the county, but perilously close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This looks a lot better then it did a couple days agoo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, Stash said: If the low crosses the lower Hudson valley as depicted in the rgem, then we will sniff sleet for a little bit. I usually use the rgem as my last bastion of hope during SNE snowstorms where I'm on the outside looking in. Usually quite amped. If other guidance follows suit then will certainly be worth considering. Thanks Mike. We'll see if the GFS and Euro make any shifts then I'll make the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 All sorts of goodies in here: .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ...Major Winter Storm Moves Into the Region... Warm advection off the deck starts fairly early on Saturday as the model consensus favors modest ascent in the 285-295K layer with sufficient moisture transport in the layer and condensation pressure deficits falling off toward 10 mb near to or shortly after 10 AM across western New York. This should allow for light snow to develop progressively from west to east across the area. By late afternoon, moisture transport in the layer rapidly increases from the southwest, centered decidedly over the Southern Tier on the model consensus. This should allow for some ramp up in snow intensity over the Southern Tier by the afternoon hours. As the upper wave approaches by the evening Saturday, a curved coupled upper jet crosses the region concurrent with the arrival of a fairly deep deformation band and frontogenetical maxima that seem to be largely co-located with the dendritic growth zone. This should allow for rapidly increasing snow-to-liquid ratios (from about 20:1 over the northern CWA to about 14:1 over the southern portions of the CWA) by the evening hours as the best forcing for ascent arrives into the Southern Tier, then proceeds northward toward the Buffalo/Rochester area. The newly arrived 12z NAM has taken yet another northward jaunt to largely match with the 00z ECMWF and 06z Canadian, leaving the GFS a southerly outlying solution. With further support from the SREF, this has necessitated an uptick in snow amounts essentially south of the Thruway over western New York as well as in the North Country. As such, Jefferson County was upgraded to a winter storm warning. As the deformation band lifts northward, northeasterly flow develops over Lake Ontario. This combined with a fairly stable boundary layer located largely in the dendritic growth zone, as well as confluent northeast flow in the boundary layer over the lake should allow for the development of a lake effect band underneath the arriving large scale snowfall. This will allow for local enhancement in Monroe, Orleans, and Niagara Counties, which has necessitated an uptick in snow amounts there, as well. Additionally, a stiff northeast wind off the lake that will become increasingly gusty through the night will allow for blowing snow to develop in this area first. The deformation band starts to pivot from northwest to southeast later in the night as the 850-800 mb low passes across northern Pennsylvania. This will sag the western portions of the band quickly southward, while the eastern portions of the band will linger near Lewis and Oswego Counties a bit longer. As this occurs, boundary layer flow trends more northerly into Sunday. This will allow for the single band of lake effect snow off Lake Ontario to transition into multi-band along the entire southern shore of the lake. Likewise, as the 850-800 mb low departs, cold air advection off the deck increases the mixing depth and wind gusts increase as well. This will allow for blowing snow to start to develop across the area. All in all, a very dry snow seems likely for the northern 2/3 of the forecast area. This will result in far greater accumulations than would normally be seen with the amount of QPF the models are putting out. Further, mechanical forcing trends suggest some northward deviation in the best forcing from the 00z guidance. With microphysical concerns playing a large role and a quite favorable synoptic pattern at play, explicit model QPF will likely be a less important factor in the forecast than would normally be the case. This is especially true in the northeast lake effect band areas in Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe Counties. That said, 7-12 inches in Jefferson County will quickly transition into a swath of a foot or more from the Tug Hill across the southern Lake Ontario shore with an additional swath across the Southern Tier and northern Finger Lakes. The lowest totals outside the St. Lawrence Valley in the area will likely be in the immediate Buffalo area, with roughly 8-12 inches expected at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Could make a run at 20..A few days back it was mid single digits for highs! Maybe this could help with flake structure.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Appears the 5 to 10 the NWS went with is going to verify low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 And just as I post that they went up to 8 to 12!!! Still sticking with a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I think their too low still but a conservative estimate for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 27 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: "Everyone knows you never go full NAM" I got NAM'd! Rookie mistake. But right now it's the only model NOT being tossed elsewhere. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlee4615 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Dear lord please let HRDPS verify for once! Loaded! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hi rez canadian also makes it up to SW PA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Hi rez canadian also makes it up to SW PA.. This path would really bust the EC totals. Would like to see this unique track verify! Hows the timing look, still in and out quite or slowing down with a more amped solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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