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MLK Weekend Event - Making Lemonade Out of Lemons


Bob Chill
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8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I agree for northern md. Models tend to hold onto 850's too long and also scour out CAD to fast. Good recipe for a prolonged freezing rain event. some of the models are giving quite the thump of snow along the m/d line, but I'm skeptical of that. I'm think an inch or so at best.  Hope I'm wrong

As the low approaches winds will be out east for a while then out of the south and not light either. The cold is shallow and the freezing line isn't as far south as we would like to see. If an inversion keeps winds from mixing down then surface temps could be stubborn. Snow cover will help some too but this isn't that good CAD setup. It's more like an insitu CAD versus times when we have a true cold drain with northerly winds as precip starts.

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17 minutes ago, Ji said:
22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
What's the minimum solution to keep you in? 

18z icon lol...I need to not go over 32

You might stay just below freezing but the rain looks to be heavy at times. 30-31 and heavy rain won't accrete well. I'm hoping we somehow pull off a flip to snow at the end. That would make it fun. Especially if temps plummet like advertised. Doesn't look likely but that could change 

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You might stay just below freezing but the rain looks to be heavy at times. 30-31 and heavy rain won't accrete well. I'm hoping we somehow pull off a flip to snow at the end. That would make it fun. Especially if temps plummet like advertised. Doesn't look likely but that could change 
We might have a better chance for onset snow than backend
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Our best chance were the runs where a lot of energy from the southern stream hung backed to the southwest.  If it ejects in one big - tilted bowling ball, there's going to be a much stronger low and it's going to be a lot warmer.  Unfortunately it's been trending that way.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
You might stay just below freezing but the rain looks to be heavy at times. 30-31 and heavy rain won't accrete well. I'm hoping we somehow pull off a flip to snow at the end. That would make it fun. Especially if temps plummet like advertised. Doesn't look likely but that could change 

We might have a better chance for onset snow than backend

Absolutely. Accum from a flip at the end is always low probability.

One thing models have consistently done this year in the short range (48 hours and in) is shift the rain/snow line north. Right now we have zero wiggle room and that's not good. SNE may have to deal with that trend as well. 

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I'm actually cool with this storm being rain for the Baltimore area. It's looked that way for days and it happens. What I'm not thrilled about is the prospect of it getting extremely cold and then getting right back to a rain storm middle of next week. Back to back rain storms in January is no bueno lol. 

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Southward trends as models come more in line with fantasy forecast ... still not sure if this can get all the way to an all or mostly snow outcome but models have at least realized what was fairly obvious yesterday, this low was not likely to suck up a lot of warm air with that lurching trough and a frigid Canadian high pushing down, nor was it ever going to see the sights of Pittsburgh, Scranton or Springfield, MA. 

Looks like one of those early spring lows that never advects warm air and gets hammered from all sides by cold air with an explosion of thunder-sleet, ice pellets, and winds backing around the compass for hours. 

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A track like that which goes south of us to ocean city, and a more strung out low, is exactly what we need to keep cold air in place and limit warm air from surging ahead of the low aka for it to snow. Literally the only solution that we could squeak a decent snowstorm out of. Especially for the Baltimore area 

Unlikely to occur...as it’s a lonely outlier, but hell, ya never know... maybe, like last weekend, it is sniffing out a trend early and we see 6z Globals trend that way. GFS, Euro, GGEM, and UKMET all shifted SE tonight. Now.. we just need it to go south another 75 miles and we’re talkin!

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