ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS looks slightly north of 06z through 48h. Amazing that it won't give up despite being the northern outlier right now. Looks like it will double down this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That ICON evolution is amazing looking ... It has the IB snow burst ... terminating as steady ZR/IP (implicit...) south of the pike, with on-gong lighter snow N of that rough longitude... Then, a new low deepens rather rapidly I of NJ and we see CCB blossom from a NYC/LI to SE NH arc I was just thinking that I am 50/50 that the 12z euro goes ape$hit. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z GFS is going to be a tic or two north of the 06z run from hr60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's definitely a bit faster so that might be part of it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS is going to be a toaster bath at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 28 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: Not liking this look...could get ugly for someone in southern CT I’m in southern ct...3” of snow with an inch of ice and a half inch of sleet?! Am I reading that right!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS looks slightly north of 06z through 48h. Amazing that it won't give up despite being the northern outlier right now. Looks like it will double down this run. I wondering if it's adjustment happens more abruptly in the 00z per uptake off the Pacific... maybe an 18z sniffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's definitely a bit faster so that might be part of it too. That may offset it from the 06z run, Also looks weaker by 4mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS looks slightly north of 06z through 48h. Amazing that it won't give up despite being the northern outlier right now. Looks like it will double down this run. hopefully we're not eating crow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It’s elongated NNE to SSW though. Has that look of locking in cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's weaker, but further north. I wonder if we're going to see a ridiculous gfs evolution to finish off this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: That may offset it from the 06z run. Looks like it actually gets more strung out at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Looks like it actually gets more strung out at the last second. Looks like its a late bloomer this run so it ends up slightly east of the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Looks like it actually gets more strung out at the last second. It looked really bad at the beginning stages but appears to have trended SE with the track. Still on the warmer side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 59 minutes ago, weathafella said: Similar ptype distribution...maybe more snow given the antecedent and colder during the sleet this time. Distinct memory of my head getting pelted while Ray 5 miles away danced under parachutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah a snow ending too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Gets cranking in the GOM down to 983mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I actually thought 12z GFS is a tic southeast, less amped... i.e., a small but definite step towards Euro / UK And not warmer than 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: It looked really bad at the beginning stages but appears to have trended SE with the track. Still on the warmer side of things. GFS definitely starting to catch on that it can't ram that surface low up into that cold press as others have been alluding too. It's still not sure what to do earlier in the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, TheBudMan said: Distinct memory of my head getting pelted while Ray 5 miles away danced under parachutes Yea, that cf set up right on 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah a snow ending too. Looks like a ccb to end it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, cut said: Where in Trumbull? Im off Churchill Woodlawn, off Church Hill. Are you Ray from Norwood? Is there some way for us to take this to private messages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Weird run but def somewhat caved to other guidance late in the game. It is getting on board with that anafront development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Using Tropical Tidbits nifty "Previous Run" buttons to toggle version/intervals... I really see 0 meaningful differences at 500 mb on this run compared to any in six clicks backward - Do yourselves a favor - don't spend any time needling through this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: Looks like a ccb to end it. I am telling you....don't be surprised if the 12z EURO is a nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, wxsniss said: I actually thought 12z GFS is a tic southeast, less amped... i.e., a small but definite step towards Euro / UK And not warmer than 6z run It was def a bit warmer early on and more amped to the west but it really seemed to run into a brick wall around 66 hours and ended up southeast by the time we got to Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Using Tropical Tidbits nifty "Previous Run" buttons to toggle version/intervals... I really see 0 meaningful differences at 500 mb on this run compared to any in six clicks backward - Do yourselves a favor - don't spend any time needling through this run... Most of the changes we've been seeing on most guidance are cosmetic and mostly noise. Exceptions might be the typical models like the NAM which came back to reality from a very suppressed 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It was def a bit warmer early on and more amped to the west but it really seemed to run into a brick wall around 66 hours and ended up southeast by the time we got to Sunday morning. It was getting squeezed to the east as it headed NE, It developed late too this run so it had less resistance against the CAD until it was at this lat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 CMC looks similar to the GFS but without the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z CMC has SLP over PHL at 72... just east of LI at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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