Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Check this out... 0z EPS d11 12z EPS d11... Just a little different where it counts... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You can't make this stuff up any better... Now that I capitulated (and I think PSU did today), EPS made a sig shift colder d9+. With another possible threat to boot. If we really do flip cold around the 7th and enter an active period, this winter will no doubt be the absolute WORST long range model performance I've ever seen. maybe its because MJO looks better on euro...actually dies in phase 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You can't make this stuff up any better... Now that I capitulated (and I think PSU did today), EPS made a sig shift colder d9+. With another possible threat to boot. If we really do flip cold around the 7th and enter an active period, this winter will no doubt be the absolute WORST long range model performance I've ever seen. This winter is Read and rip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Check this out... 0z EPS d11 12z EPS d11... Just a little different where it counts... actually dosent look all that differen lolt but its supressed enough to give us maybe some overrunning threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You can't make this stuff up any better... Now that I capitulated (and I think PSU did today), EPS made a sig shift colder d9+. With another possible threat to boot. If we really do flip cold around the 7th and enter an active period, this winter will no doubt be the absolute WORST long range model performance I've ever seen. I looked at 2ms and thought the same. I saw 500 looking a little less ominous as well. Bootlegging our way to winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Ji said: actually dosent look all that differen lolt but its supressed enough to give us maybe some overrunning threat look at 850s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: look at 850s... looks great:)....just kidding. Yes...much colder at 276. Well worry about 336 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Ji said: looks great:)....just kidding. Yes...much colder at 276. Well worry about 336 tomorrow At least it makes more sense why the mean 2m temps we're below normal with an awful h5 look. So now the euro op and ens have a pretty good front clearing somewhere around the 7th with a chance for something for a few days before the ridge comes back. But does it really come back and if it does will the same thing happen again? Or will the front clear and confluence takes over? What about the epo ridge? It was more than a little bit further east d10+. Still not in a good spot but much more prominent than last night's eps run. A lot of reading between the lines here. You can't help but to start questioning the bottom dropping out and everything going to hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Yeah!! I’m absolutely not giving up on this winter. Not that I ever give up until April... Long range forecasts have been awful this year, so I think maybe this is gonna be a Forest Gump kind of winter. You never know what you’re gonna get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, snowmagnet said: Yeah!! I’m absolutely not giving up on this winter. Not that I ever give up until April... Long range forecasts have been awful this year, so I think maybe this is gonna be a Forest Gump kind of winter. You never know what you’re gonna get. I'm honestly just taking it one week at a time. This week gives me the chance for a little snow and bitter cold for a few days so I'll enjoy that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: At least it makes more sense why the mean 2m temps we're below normal with an awful h5 look. So now the euro op and ens have a pretty good front clearing somewhere around the 7th with a chance for something for a few days before the ridge comes back. But does it really come back and if it does will the same thing happen again? Or will the front clear and confluence takes over? What about the epo ridge? It was more than a little bit further east d10+. Still not in a good spot but much more prominent than last night's eps run. A lot of reading between the lines here. You can't help but to start questioning the bottom dropping out and everything going to hell. its not a shutout pattern for sure. In fact, we could be fighting a boundry battle every storm. It dosent look dry though. There is still a mean SE ridge though that we cant seem to shake but were in the game. And thats even if its correct that far out. There was an uptick in snow D10-15...like there pretty much has been on every run sinc november haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 50 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: This winter is Read and rip I do my best to read between the lines. After everything I've seen the last 1-2 days, here's my synopsis: Light event tomorrow of some sort is a lock followed by bitter cold for any time of winter in these parts Increasing odds of another light event Friday and even though 1-3" appears to be best case, temps are way cold and ground is frozen like a rock Some sort of warmth starting early next week with duration unknown but I'll go with 3-4 days for now A sneaky front blasts through late next week and we get another window for some sort of snowfall but waaaay too far away to remotely think about details Now it gets tricky... Do we warm back up or is the front next week the beginning of a wholesale shift towards better conditions in general or is there no meaningful front at all? Not sure but starting to look better every day that goes by so I'll side with a front clearing and breaking up any long duration AN temps Wildcards and muddy thoughts: Duration of warmth and crap pattern is very difficult to predict. Could be several weeks or as short as 3 days If the front next week sets up legit confluence we could pull off a decent to even warning level event. Both the GEFS and EPS show potential but no consensus It's entirely possible that a deep -PNA parks for 2-3 weeks and basically steals most if not all of our final good climo weeks Starting to see signs that the -PNA rolls forward and puts the east in a trough with a legit -EPO ridge and we're right back to cold before mid month A real -NAO can sneak up anytime without much warning and stay for a while. Guidance may or may not show this until it's happening. It's easy to go with no -nao because of persistence but that kind of forecasting is only good until you bust horribly at some point because a legit -nao is coming back eventually. We just don't know when. Maybe in 5 days and maybe in 5 years 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Tell me who here accurately predicted how this winter would go, lol Deck pic and KA have been excellent with monthly temps and snowfall for months of DEc and Jan. Isotherm good also. Pay attention and learn something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 The Mongolian high pressures continue to show up and make their usual move towards us 7-12 days later. The “10 day away” touts having missed out now want to cancel Feb. Feb will be fine and a continuation of what we have had since early November-mostly cutters, infrequent suppressed, infrequent hits, temps not significantly below average but episodic shots of frigid air. Final snowfall right around average and tons better than last two winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 19 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Deck pic and KA have been excellent with monthly temps and snowfall for months of DEc and Jan. Isotherm good also. Pay attention and learn something Uncalled for. I was speaking of seasonal predictions--no need to snipe. I'm on here all the time--so I've seen the struggle with predictions and such. Overall, trying to predict this which way this winter will go has done a number on even the best met minds--that's all I'm saying (Was not being pretentious) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Looks like we may have some chances the last 2/3 of February......Im willing to bet most would settle for one MECS for all and call it a Winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Weekies roll the ugly pattern forward until it's perfect...at the end of Feb. Honestly, they aren't that bad in general but considering how terrible they've done this year, i really reallllly DGAF what they show. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weekies roll the ugly pattern forward until it's perfect...at the end of Feb. Honestly, they aren't that bad in general but considering how terrible they've done this year, i really reallllly DGAF what they show. dude weeklies are irrelevant now. Ensembles will take you to mid Feb...and then the 2nd half of feb is a coin toss like this entire winer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Ji said: dude weeklies are irrelevant now. Ensembles will take you to mid Feb...and then the 2nd half of feb is a coin toss like this entire winer 18z gfs builds the block and almost destroys us. Sne weenies are huggin the run. Fits the stuff I was talking about earlier. Front rolls through on the 7th and we're back to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs builds the block and almost destroys us. Sne weenies are huggin the run. Fits the stuff I was talking about earlier. Front rolls through on the 7th and we're back to winter. yes man...and as much as ive complained....i had 5 inches in Nov, 12 in Jan with storm 1, 1.5 inches in storm 2....and lets say i get 1.5 tomorrow. Thats 20 inches lol including 15 in January which is way above normal for a January. This winter is still salvageable if you count Nov which i think counts cause i shoveled it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 @Ji We're back in business dude.... The weeklies that came out 5 minutes ago and already busted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weekies roll the ugly pattern forward until it's perfect...at the end of Feb. Honestly, they aren't that bad in general but considering how terrible they've done this year, i really reallllly DGAF what they show. I don't care either, but this was my prediction this morning lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji We're back in business dude.... The weeklies that came out 5 minutes ago already busted oh my....thats actually the euro weeklies from 3 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Ji said: oh my....thats actually the euro weeklies from 3 weeks ago It's no doubt the best look i've seen inside of 15 days all winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Just now, Ji said: oh my....thats actually the euro weeklies from 3 weeks ago Holy S dude... it gets better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 GEFS sure is adamant about the big time west-based block. Hope it's right. If not it will be a failure of higher magnitude than the weeklies continuous can kicking of the "good" pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: GEFS sure is adamant about the big time west-based block. Hope it's right. If not it will be a failure of higher magnitude than the weeklies continuous can kicking of the "good" pattern. its not going to happen if MJO is stuck in phase 6....so it must be going to a good place per the ensembes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Holy S dude... it gets better... CFS continues to agree. Monster block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: its not going to happen if MJO is stuck in phase 6....so it must be going to a good place per the ensembes Maybe, or it just dies there. Either one would probably work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 we are either headed towards an epic recovery or an epic disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now