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cyclone77

Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

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1 hour ago, mimillman said:

Hoping this mesolow advertises by the HRRR can make it onshore later tonight. Would mean the difference between a DAB and 2-3”

I’m likely a bit too far west in Elmwood Park to get anymore worthwhile snow. But fingers crossed for you, mimillman!

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Interesting setup right now with LES...

You have a meso-low near downtown, with the convergence boundary extending SW from there, moving NW. This is going to help pull LES as far inland as LaSalle and DeKalb CO’s.

04f7637354e9ee48127a37ed35310c5c.jpg




.

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16 hours ago, nwohweather said:

 

Going west-east the whole area got 8-12” with a foot out by Sandusky where they got additional lake effect. It was deep in the driveway, I’ll take a picture but the neighbors super duty F250 actually got stuck for a bit when plowing

TOL officially had 5.9", so that sounds low.

 

Monroe county, MI, the SEmost county in MI, had pretty uniform reports of 7-7.5".

 

As said earlier, I had 6.1". The official total at DTW was 5.8", which was a record for the date and the largest snowstorm since last Feb.

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pretty decent LES band moving into eastern WI from the SSE..  oddity

REA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI  
1126 AM CST MON JAN 21 2019  
   
UPDATE  
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND JUST  
OFFSHORE, MOVING NNW TO EASTERN OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES.  
NAM INDICATING ENHANCED LOW LEVEL OMEGA AND CONVERGENCE LINGERING  
IN EASTERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL  
WINDS FROM THE SSE INCREASE, ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  
BUMPED UP POPS AND SNOWFALL IN EASTERN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY, AND COULD  
POTENTIALLY GET 1-3 INCHES INTO THE EVENING IN THIS AREA. WILL  
WATCH CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE QUICK ADVISORY AS THE SNOW MAY  
INTERFERE WITH EVENING COMMUTE.  
  

 

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My loops for this storm. I tried to come up with a way to do a storm-following IR satellite loop and storm-following regional radar loop. The radar loop displays the main areas where the storm was hitting at the time. The IR satellite loop is not perfect, but I'm happy to say that it includes a lot of detail for 78 consecutive hours at 1-hour increments.  Also, the national NOHRSC snowfall analysis of this storm

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_19_2019_radar_loop.html

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_19_2019_IR_loop.html

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_19_2019_surface_loop.html

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_19_2019_500mb_loop.html

 

 

8KHbDsm.jpg

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On 1/17/2019 at 5:32 PM, cyclone77 said:

Tough forecast for this area.  It looks like the initial front band will miss just north, which takes 0.2-0.3" of precip potential away.  The heavier precip with the deform snows will slide well south.  Looks like we'll be in the middle with sort of a 3-5" type of an event.  Looks like a solid advisory event, and a nice refresher.  

4-5", with isolated 6" was probably the right call for the majority of the DVN cwa.  3-5" was a pretty good forecast, but probably should have went with 3-6, or 4-6".  Certainly considerably better than the 6-8" that DVN issued a warning for.  I feel warnings and advisories are being issued way too frequently these days.  

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On 1/19/2019 at 5:55 PM, cyclone77 said:

4.8".  Not for sure but guessing ratios were around 10:1.  The snow is light in nature, but it packed in pretty well with all that wind.  The granulated nature of the snow, and only around 100mb of DGZ depth likely kept ratios fairly conservative.  MLI/DVN ended up with 4.2/5.2" respectively.  Amounts around the area were generally in the 4-5" range.  The fact that the snow sort of compacted as it fell makes it a good quality snow, as it shouldn't compact and lower the overall snow depth.  Was a fun, yet kind of frustrating event to track lol.  :snowing:

Monday's system is about to be a very fun one and biggest of the year! Probably WSW criteria

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