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Orangeburgwx

January 12th-13th event

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4 minutes ago, CARDC79 said:

96 hours-ish from potential precip start here in NC Triad. Reel. It. In. 

I really like the initial cold air that's in place before the storm.

12z NAM dew points:

 

aaaa.jpg

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12z UKMet has the parent low way up in N MS, but the endpoint is still a low moving off the NC coast (with damming in between).  GFS/CMC/UKMet from 12z are fairly similar.  The damming high yields a fairly high chance for an impactful, mixed precip winter storm over the favored CAD areas IMO.  I would be surprised if this moves to a more snowy solution over the coming days, and a way north, low impact event with mostly rain seems unlikely as well

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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I really like the initial cold air that's in place before the storm.

12z NAM dew points:

 

aaaa.jpg

Just remembering the past few storms but does the Nam tend to overdo the cold at it's outer range? Always seems to show a great solution initially and trend warmer closer to the event. Probably depends on the system. 

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z UKMet has the parent low way up in N MS, but the endpoint is still a low moving off the NC coast (with damming in between).  GFS/CMC/UKMet from 12z are fairly similar.  The damming high yields a fairly high chance for an impactful, mixed precip winter storm over the favored CAD areas IMO.  I would be surprised if this moves to a more snowy solution over the coming days, and a way north, low impact event with mostly rain seems unlikely as well

UK seem to show Snow to ICE for southern VA?

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I really like the initial cold air that's in place before the storm.

12z NAM dew points:

 

aaaa.jpg

That dew point for me is 18 degrees.... Good lord...:shiver:

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1 minute ago, Thor said:

Just remembering the past few storms but does the Nam tend to overdo the cold at it's outer range? Always seems to show a great solution initially and trend warmer closer to the event. Probably depends on the system. 

The GFS(s) are slightly warmer but still have low dewpoints; whereas at hour 84 RDU has a dewpoint of 11 on the NAM and 13 on the GFS.  

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Just a thought but for the last two years ive had snow around 7th-9th in December and Around the same time in January too ironically. if this storm verifys it will be 3 years in a row with snow around the same time frame in January. Climatology maybe? 

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Just now, FallsLake said:

The GFS(s) are slightly warmer but still have low dewpoints; whereas at hour 84 RDU has a dewpoint of 11 on the NAM and 13 on the GFS.  

When is the expected onset of precip in our area?  Seen DPs shoot up rapidly in situations like this as well.

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2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

When is the expected onset of precip in our area?  Seen DPs shoot up rapidly in situations like this as well.

Looking at the latest models you would think late Saturday night. RAH has snow starting in our area ~1pm on Saturday:

Saturday
A chance of snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
What's interesting is they're focused on more snow being the predominant type. This could be a case where meteorology trumps models more than normal.  
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9 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Seen DPs shoot up rapidly in situations like this as well.

Moisture influx is a double edge sword that we can't get rid of. Yes, it increases totals, but at the same time in draws in warm air like a vacuum cleaner.

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Looking at the latest models you would think late Saturday night. RAH has snow starting in our area ~1pm on Saturday:

Saturday
A chance of snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
 
What's interesting is they're focused on more snow being the predominant type. This could be a case where meteorology trumps models more than normal.  

Try clicking a few miles south and you'll see the rain enter the forecast for southern Wake.  The point-and-click is already showing the traditional rain/snow line through Wake.

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Looks slightly warmer as well -->The high to the north is slightly weaker.  

It looks like means should hold steady, just for what its worth. 

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11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GEFS had a little jump in QPF compared to 6z

12Z GEFS looked like it bumped stronger with the storm, bit more amped, a bit north.  High a touch weaker, but a 1040 is still solid.  Wish it would creep down to Merica.  

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_20.png

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Just looking at my sounding, it looks like my back yard is literally on the sleet/snow line for the best precip, followed by freezing rain. I dont think it could be any closer. 

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Notice qpf spike futher east with latter development.  Have to watch this transition line and timing of the mix if it involves freezing rain. Nothing like 2-4 inches of snow and .50+ freezing rain on top. 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_20.png

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4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Notice qpf spike futher east with latter development.  Have to watch this transition line and timing of the mix if it involves freezing rain. Nothing like 2-4 inches of snow and .50+ freezing rain on top. 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_20.png

Notice where the blue is? Same areas Florence hit

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