showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: You mean like that crushing TPV dropping into Hudson bay? Suppression! Congrats NC. I know PSU isn't really a big fan of seeing the PV anywhere on this side of the globe because he doesn't want anything to interrupt the general mid-latitude flow and feels that climo at this time will take care of the cold. I myself say, bring it on. Love seeing the pv rotating around as it provides better cold as well as the potential of better dynamics and extremes with any systems. Now I would take the pv planted around the Hudson Bay region any day of the week because that is probably the most favorable for our location. But I think we are going to see the pv much farther south then that. So though we may risk bouts of suppression we are also looking at increased odds of big and/or extreme events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: EPS is still pretty much moving along in the long range. Slight differences here and there but overall the look is roughly the same and has slightly improved IMO. Seeing a slightly weaker EPO/PNA ridge but actually a stronger +PNA clocking in. Overall the look there has improved a touch. Stronger ridginging into Greenland and subsequently a slightly farther south solution on the pv. All in all, I think we have seen improvements on the overall look. Love seeing it building heights in the NA. The latest weeklies have legit blocking from from around the 25th onward, which becomes epic heading into early Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: I know PSU isn't really a big fan of seeing the PV anywhere on this side of the globe because he doesn't want anything to interrupt the general mid-latitude flow and feels that climo at this time will take care of the cold. I myself say, bring it on. Love seeing the pv rotating around as it provides better cold as well as the potential of better dynamics and extremes with any systems. Now I would take the pv planted around the Hudson Bay region any day of the week because that is probably the most favorable for our location. But I think we are going to see the pv much farther south then that. So though we may risk bouts of suppression we are also looking at increased odds of big and/or extreme events. I agree. Given the strat warming event resulting in multiple discrete vortices, we want one of those daughters on our side. I say this a lot, and will continue to say it even after the miss south in Dec- Give me a stout -NAO and a vortex rotating around underneath it. I will take my chances with that look all winter. As we heard ad nauseam in this thread yesterday, weak Ninos tend to favor Miller B events, so this combo can help offset the tendency for NE to cash in while we see scraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Love seeing it building heights in the NA. The latest weeklies have legit blocking from from around the 25th onward, that becomes epic heading into early Feb. Starting to strongly believe that we see some great blocking in the NAO domain shortly. Not only that but I think we start seeing some great height builds into and over the pole. Fits in with my thoughts of a very active period from late Jan into Feb and why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I agree. Given the warming event resulting in multiple discrete vortices, we want one of those daughters on our side. I say this a lot, and will continue to say it even after the miss south in Dec- Give me a stout -NAO and a vortex rotating around underneath it. I will take my chances with that look all winter. As we heard ad nauseam in this thread yesterday, weak Ninos tend to favor Miller B events, so this combo can help offset the tendency for NE to cash in while we see scraps. Not sure you read my long winded comment to 70/40 but essentially I said don't be counting your chickens before they're hatched. Though el ninos may favor Miller B action in a typical year I am not so sure we will be talking a typical year here shortly. If I am somewhat correct on how I see the pattern evolution occurring in the coming weeks he needs to keep an eye out for major suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 58 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Dear god...the psu 40/70 multiple paragraph conversation last night made me feel like I was spinning the wheel on wheel of fortune as I scrolled on my phone I get the feeling 40/70 wants to make it abundantly clear to us mid atlantic folks that this winter will NOT be a 2009-2010 redux. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Not sure you read my long winded comment to 70/40 but essentially I said don't be counting your chickens before they're hatched. Though el ninos may favor Miller B action in a typical year I am not so sure we will be talking a typical year here shortly. If I am somewhat correct on how I see the pattern evolution occurring in the coming weeks he needs to keep an eye out for major suppression. I did miss that, but I am glad you also brought that up. I mean, the guy is knowledgeable and all and I welcome his insights, but damn, give it a rest. We get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 40 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: tl;dr Shame on you. You forced me to pull out the urban dictionary to decipher your comment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Oh no the 384 hr 6z gfs has temps in the 50sYes...that is on track for the period out winter pattern begins to unravel 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Another nice neg in the SOI today... -18.60 I feel like everyone's holding their breath waiting for the next shoe to drop....I am to a certain extent. But, things seem to be evolving nicely. Something to track would be nice to pass the time until after the 20th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 36 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Oh no the 384 hr 6z gfs has temps in the 50s Yes...that is on track for the period out winter pattern begins to unravel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Lol -45F in SE Canada on the LR FV3 but somehow DC is 33F: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 These are 5 day NHEMI. Doesnt mean there hasnt been an improvement with the FV3 on the handling of individual storms. As a casual observer....I havent noticed an improvement. But, these are the only scores I have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Lol -45F in SE Canada on the LR FV3 but somehow DC is 33F: Speculation that maybe there are still issues on the Pac side . Maybe at this time there are still improvements not modeled, and I read that the Pac improves further month's end. I know HM alluded to the NE Pac and the transition to take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 So many comments last night....so little snow. Showmethesnow 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Another interim record zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -8.7 m/s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Lol -45F in SE Canada on the LR FV3 but somehow DC is 33F: Just where we want it when we have our HECS coming thru the SW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 32 minutes ago, frd said: Speculation that maybe there are still issues on the Pac side . Maybe at this time there are still improvements not modeled, and I read that the Pac improves further month's end. I know HM alluded to the NE Pac and the transition to take place. What would you say is the most impressive(might also say worrisome) feature on that h5 panel? Personally, I would like that to become a bit less impressive going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 33 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Lol -45F in SE Canada on the LR FV3. Felt it was only a matter of time and that we would start seeing it pop shortly on the models but looking at the long range FV3 it is pretty much showing what I discussed yesterday. We are seeing chunks of pv getting displaced far to the south where there are causing major disruptions within the mid-Latitude jet. All that energy stored in them is being bled off with major amplifications within the long wave pattern as evidenced by the trough we see move into the east at the end of the run. If my thoughts on the upcoming evolution are correct we may be in for exciting times coming up in late January into Feb. To further excite the weenies in here, I am tending to believe this will be a long duration event that may run through the rest of winter. If I am correct we will see a massive exchange of heat from the south into the arctic regions with a subsequent transfer of cold into the mid-Latitudes. That massive influx to the pole will in turn continue to cause major disruptions within the trop pv if not even reaching into the strat with bottom up warming. Now a lot of what our snow chances will be depend on luck but if this plays out the way I think the odds should be heavily stacked in our favor. Either way I am actually getting excited at the prospect of tracking some extreme weather in the near future. eta: LOL. My bad. Was looking at the 18Z run of the FV3 and not the current one. But my comment still stands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Still not certain on down well from the strat event. Seems last year was faster, even though there was a lag, where this year the effect from strat to trop have been less so far, however, the reversal in winds is forecasted to last much longer. Read the longer it goes the more likley there will be significant down welling. Of course the ultimate long term regional effects are still hard to pin down. Seems like one vortice want to gather near Hudson Bay. Last year, and the going back even more, I have seen news reports form Siberia, Northern Africa, Italy, etc, that even if a vortice parks close by it can result in severe weather with very cold conditions and much snow. I imagine there is more to it than that and requires a certain pattern but the odds of a high ticket event I feel are higher in cases such as this. The severity issues is also shared by @showmethesnow I think too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: What would you say is the most impressive(might also say worrisome) feature on that h5 panel? Personally, I would like that to become less impressive going forward. I like to bring this over from @bluewave as what he says kinds of goes along with what I posted about and my general thoughts. To me it has been hard to get West ridging with the raging jet. I do think as bluewave mentioned we see some chamges in the Pac jet . His post is below 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: right and do you remember when we looked at older analogs for the 2010-11 and 1995-96 la nina cold/snowy winters we learned that pre-1950 we had a ton of very cold and snowy la nina winters? from bluewave <<<< Yes, I remember. The fire hose NP Jet this year reminds me of La Niña. Notice the Niña-like ridge holding on stubbornly north of Hawaii. This is creating a stronger jet further north than we typically see during an El Niño. So we continue to have these fast NP jet issues over North America. The latest EPS means continue this for at least the next week to 10 days. >>>> 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Keep this in mind too about the AO and the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Western to central PAC still screaming tho the look off the W Coast admittedly has improved. GEFS/GEPS have generally similar looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 24 minutes ago, frd said: I like to bring this over from @bluewave as what he says kinds of goes along with what I posted about and my general thoughts. I do think as bluewave mentioned we see some chamges in the Pac jet . 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: right and do you remember when we looked at older analogs for the 2010-11 and 1995-96 la nina cold/snowy winters we learned that pre-1950 we had a ton of very cold and snowy la nina winters? from bluewave <<<< Yes, I remember. The fire hose NP Jet this year reminds me of La Niña. Notice the Niña-like ridge holding on stubbornly north of Hawaii. This is creating a stronger jet further north than we typically see during an El Niño. So we continue to have these fast NP jet issues over North America. The latest EPS means continue this for at least the next week to 10 days. >>>> That Hawaii ridge flattens/weakens dramatically towards the end of the run, and the NPAC trough moves into a more favorable position. That trough is so deep and expansive though.. really want to see it weaken/retro a bit more, otherwise it could inhibit development of a -EPO, and also tend to keep a flow of PAC air into the western third of Canada. Kinda living on the edge with the current projected PAC look on the EPS. At this point I think it will retrograde and weaken enough as to not be a thorn in the side of the (desired) pattern evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 @showmethesnow @C.A.P.E. For the record I said I would rather no PV than a badly placed one. An ideally placed 50/50 vortex is ideal of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @showmethesnow @C.A.P.E. For the record I said I would rather no PV than a badly placed one. An ideally placed 50/50 vortex is ideal of course. Not going to go back and read your comments but my impression was that you wanted nothing to do with a pv on this side of the globe well placed or not because you felt it was too risky as to cause interference with the general flow through the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That Hawaii ridge flattens/weakens dramatically towards the end of the run, and the NPAC trough moves into a more favorable position. That trough is so deep and expansive though.. really want to see it weaken/retro a bit more, otherwise it could inhibit development of a -EPO, and also tend to keep a flow of PAC air into the western third of Canada. Kinda living on the edge with the current projected PAC look on the EPS. At this point I think it will retrograde and weaken enough as to not be a thorn in the side of the pattern evolution. I too hope it weakens and retrogrades as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Lol -45F in SE Canada on the LR FV3 but somehow DC is 33F: Latitude 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @showmethesnow @C.A.P.E. For the record I said I would rather no PV than a badly placed one. An ideally placed 50/50 vortex is ideal of course. Many times when we have our 'epic' HL patterns, the 50-50 low can result from smaller vortices being shed off of a parent TPV (sitting in the vicinity of Hudson Bay), rotating down and getting 'trapped' underneath the NA block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Latitude At least it’s there nearby. For a while it was hard to find temps below 0 in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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