wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 For what ever reason that map looks quite different from tropical tidbits lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So is the winter storm watch awfully long in duration? Most local models have snow ending sunday afternoon and long range models do not do well with lake effect/enhancement so what would be the reason for the Sunday night and Monday time frame? I'd guess residual LE and blowing/drifting snow (especially due to dry nature and high winds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Majority of SREF members are north of the mean at ksyr, which is just under 15"..Granted it's the LR SREFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: So is the winter storm watch awfully long in duration? Most local models have snow ending sunday afternoon and long range models do not do well with lake effect/enhancement so what would be the reason for the Sunday night and Monday time frame? I think they would rather run it long and just cancel it once the lake dies down rather than have to extend it. And as someone else stated, blowing snow will remain a concern through the afternoon and into the evening as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 0z Nam looks the best it has been since we started tracking.....so I'll go to bed on that note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not good 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: Not good 0z runs. Just noticed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 You always know when traffic dries up and dies in here. Ugh. Been trying to stay positive. Oh well. Don’t wannabe in the sweet spot 72 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS has been all over the place but the CMC coming in weak like that is a concern. ICON looked nice fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 HUH?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: HUH?? I hate that model. I mean we have no idea how that got there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Frankly, I didn’t see huge differences in 0Z vs 12z in terms of track. Qpf is lower in CNY/WNY, most likely due to whatever energy transfer is going on. 10:1 ratios still provide 8-12”...which is probably 12-15” with an expected higher ratio here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I’ll take the FV3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 From the way you were talking, Dave, I was fully expecting much lesser amounts when going to tidbits...still looks decent...with the GEM being allllllll over the place this week. I am so glad I haven't wasted much time this week following the models...I am still refusing to get super psyched...as things can be stupid with computers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: From the way you were talking, Dave, I was fully expecting much lesser amounts when going to tidbits...still looks decent...with the GEM being allllllll over the place this week. I am so glad I haven't wasted much time this week following the models...I am still refusing to get super psyched...as things can be stupid with computers. Yeah, sorry. Moment of weakness. 1000 cuts theory- we just can’t keep having these models drift SE, at some point we really start to bleed. Plus, I hug the Canadian. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 0z NAM with Kuchera ratios, thru 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ukmet gets up to central WV then cuts east just under nj.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1.25" contour makes it to ksyr/krme/kuca on the ukmet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Repost...this is 96 hr 00z GFS with Kuchera. Most of our synoptic snow is done by then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Syrmax, that makes me feel much better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 1.25" contour makes it to ksyr/krme/kuca on the ukmet.. If the so called outlier has that for CNY I think we’re in great shape for 12-18” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 For comparison. Here is GFS at 10:1...so if sh*tty snow growth strikes, this would be probably close to reality...still a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Last 2 runs of the ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS and esp FV3 really hate SNE...ice Storm! Not sure how credible that is but it’s at least on the table. That would not be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 00Z model of choice is NAV-GEM goodnight Irene! Solid 00Z Suite from the American models and our new friend the German ICON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Eastern Mass...depending the model you look at, could be front end snow to 50 and raining, or an ice storm, or 20” of snow. Enough to drive anyone mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: 00Z model of choice is NAV-GEM goodnight Irene! Solid 00Z Suite from the American models and our new friend the German ICON! I just looked at that...LOL. I don’t think I’ve ever seen NAVY model on the WEST side of forecast model spread. It usually has storms heading out to Bermuda and up to the Flemish Cap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That right turns a killer.. Some of that heaviest precipitation gets just to south of Syracuse. Hard to complain about 1"-1.25" region wide though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Thats exactly why I said that cause tomorrow when the junk out West is fully Sampled cause a lot of the energy is still off shore at this hr so...... I think we get a partial phase, at least, and I expect a full adjustment of the models ao tomorrow nights 00Z runs with a jump back NW due to the phasing. Thats my story and I'm sticking to it and I don't care what the EURO shows as its NOT infallible even thought the UKMET caved to it, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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