• Member Statistics

    15,883
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WeatherArbordoctor
    Newest Member
    WeatherArbordoctor
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
pasnownut

Central PA - Winter 2018-19

Recommended Posts

My guess:

Lanco/York: 1"-3", .1" ice, lots of rain
Harrisburg metro area: 2"-4", .2" ice, lots of rain
Ridge and Valley: 4"-8"
Cashtown: 1-2", then rain
Williamsport/MAG land: 6" - 8"
Clearfield: 34"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

C'mon buddy, the only one that said that was...me. :) You can call me out. For what it's worth, the cloud deck has lifted here at work in the past 30 minutes and there are a few dim glimpses of sun. Actually I'd say about 25% of what we got has melted here, we'll see what happens...

 

lol  all good bud.

actually a couple mentioned we’d lose in convo.  Not pointed at all.  Just a general obs.  

maybe your 1" just compressed to .75"   hehe #snowpack

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Did you all see that CTP went warning region-wide? More north, but for my area back to the Harrisburg area:

Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-
Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
and Carlisle
101 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with localized amounts up to
  12 inches, and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch
  are expected.

* WHERE...South central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. Heavy snow will
  move into the area Saturday afternoon and last into the late
  evening. A change to sleet and freezing rain will occur during
  the night. The heaviest of the snow will be from early afternoon
  through late evening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Winter Storm Warnings have been issued.  Interesting to me that Harrisburg/Hershey/Lebanon/Carlisle are still grouped with Somerset/Bedford with 6-10" snow and sleet now with up to .2" ice.

York/Lancaster 3-6" snow and sleet with up to .2" ice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CTP is either going to have to sit us all down and teach us some shtuff after all this is said or done or the locals are going to head toward State College with pitchforks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Atomixwx said:

CTP is either going to have to sit us all down and teach us some shtuff after all this is said or done or the locals are going to head toward State College with pitchforks. 

I'd trust them over all the southern tier people doom and glooming because they're not in the jackpot for once :whistle:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They just Issued Winter Storm Warnings for Central and N Maryland.  They are are really hitting the micro forecasting hard.  Quite interesting.   The wording says "Travel may be nearly impossible"   Just wow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, skiier04 said:

I'd trust them over all the southern tier people doom and glooming because they're not in the jackpot for once :whistle:

Ha!

I hope you get nailed (by snow, well the other type too because you need to keep warm). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow 12-16" in the warning grouping for here. 10-16" on the northern counties. I'm very intrigued as to why CTP has been especially adamant on this being dominant on the frozen end. The 12z guidance today hasn't exactly instilled any confidence in me making a call for 10+ in the AOO/UNV corridor although warning snows are definitely likely. They could be taking precip intensity into account as this looks to be a fairly fast and very hard hitting storm in that department.. much like our November storm. That one overachieved in the LSV before mixing. Intense precip would keep an isothermal column for awhile when the warm air aloft tries to push in. They also could simply be factoring in climo too. This is the coldest time of the year, and we have arctic air to our north which should bleed in at the low levels to some degree as this storm approaches. This is hardly a frigid storm setup but it isn't necessarily a marginal one either.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Ha!

I hope you get nailed (by snow, well the other type too because you need to keep warm). 

:lol: Hopefully it will be a region-wide overperformer. It's been fun tracking this week regardless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm not sure what fan of winter weather complains when their house is under a WSW. I'm sure not one of them.

Maybe Ji. 

Oh, I know. I'm just saying: that seemed like butthurt.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Did you all see that CTP went warning region-wide? More north, but for my area back to the Harrisburg area:

Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-
Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon,
and Carlisle
101 PM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with localized amounts up to
  12 inches, and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch
  are expected.

* WHERE...South central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday. Heavy snow will
  move into the area Saturday afternoon and last into the late
  evening. A change to sleet and freezing rain will occur during
  the night. The heaviest of the snow will be from early afternoon
  through late evening.

Uh. Wow 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, skiier04 said:

I'd trust them over all the southern tier people doom and glooming because they're not in the jackpot for once :whistle:

Dough....ouch

enjoy. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm not sure what fan of winter weather complains when their house is under a WSW. I'm sure not one of them.

Maybe Ji. 

I was in there a lot earlier but can’t take all of the negativity. I’m glad our sub livened up because we bicker a bit but usually in good spirit and keep it real and fun. Some act like babies down there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't pay attention to these maps regularly to know patterns/etc but interesting to note how much of Texas just east of our system currently and east PA/MD/VA GFS is busting too warm at the surface today from the 12z run just a few hours ago.

image.thumb.png.a50472e3137864e2475ee7f68be52716.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

One thing I find interesting about this is I have never seen CTP ignore the GFS to this level. Bravo to them for whatever they see.  They are the Pro's. 

But what if they eat it on this one? LOL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even Horst is more bullish than you would expect by looking at models (other than the NAM).

I think MAG may be right about the quick hitting and thump snow may be under forecasted by the big models.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.