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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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2 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

Window is closing for this thing to make big jumps...  need to see something promising by Saturday I say.

It right where we want it, better to far east than to far west....I am a bit bias as it takes a lot less NW trend for me to cash in than for folks further inland....honestly I am fine with it staying suppressed until Sunday night, then make 3 or 4 jumps over a day or so. I get very wary of snow maps showing a lot of snow over MBY more than a day or two out as they always trend away....I want it trending to me that last 24-36 hrs......so I hope this thing stays suppressed for 4 more days at least on the models. 

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24 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

No discussion of 12Z models?  Telling I guess.

They're strung out a suppressed like they have been for days and that's where I bet it will stay. I'll keep hammering home my point the models have done fantastic inside 7 days with general storm tracks. There are subtle changes but nothing dramatic like years past.

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I think given the Tues/Weds storm may likely stay suppressed we can stick a fork in this winter.  Snow after the 15th will be hard if not impossible to come by.

Yeah I know some of you talk about "awesome April", "magnificent May" and "jubilant June" or whatever but sometimes over is just OVER.

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Welp reason why this storm is going to oblivion is a faster trof, this does not allow overrunning for much of us, if you want good trends, just hope the trof lags behind more or its FR game over with it 

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Not that it matters much but storm #1 has moved south some on this GFS run. Takes some of us in NC out of the T-storm threat.

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The cold is also not sticking around as long next week. Very progressive.  Been that way for a while now why should next week be any different

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Just now, CaryWx said:

The cold is also not sticking around as long next week. Very progressive.  Been that way for a while now why should next week be any different

We all knew that would happen.... This is ridiculous. Winter is holding on by a thread.

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The 00z GFS has the LP considerably further south than the 18z run. Probably nothing, just intriguing to me. 

65E22CFD-DBAB-4998-A5F5-8AD15AE7BA48.png

CC3E04FD-F9DE-4078-911E-B0EA65E64BDE.png

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Yeah the Ohio Valley folks gotta be hating that trend lol....significantly further south at 00Z tonight versus 12Z today probably isn't anything to get to excited about but if it went any further SE then parts of NC could be back in play.....be interesting to see if the Euro moves any tonight.....for what it is worth the CMC also shifted 100 miles or more SE on the 00Z run tonight versus the 12Z today...

12Z low in the NC mts to off Delmarva

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.thumb.png.5abea0fcf0e91921def7de6e544aa219.png

 

00Z Charleston to off Lookout to off Cape Cod

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.thumb.png.08d287de2f3bda9525f20c150b991098.png

 

 

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Not sure if everyone is still keeping an eye on the Coastal.  But just for example this is the GEFS for the storm about to hit NE.  So over the course of 6 model runs went from well out to sea to a pretty large event for them.  Usually it seems to follow this pattern where two camps set up of LP's and then eventually they come back together over the corrected location.  Luck hasn't been in our favor this year obviously but the NW trend is alive and well.  

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh24_trend (1).gif

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Next Tues/Wed is the last grasp at straws for the winter, I am still kinda optimistic it would not take much of a NW trend to put eastern NC in play, be a nice payoff since we got blanked all winter ( we did get 4" in the early Dec storm but it was gone in a few hrs after we went to heavy rain )....... after that it looks like we might actually have a warm March which means storms, its been a long time since NC has had any real severe season in the spring.....obviously 2011 was terrible but since then it seems March-May has been cool and storms hard to come by. 

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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Next Tues/Wed is the last grasp at straws for the winter, I am still kinda optimistic it would not take much of a NW trend to put eastern NC in play, be a nice payoff since we got blanked all winter ( we did get 4" in the early Dec storm but it was gone in a few hrs after we went to heavy rain )....... after that it looks like we might actually have a warm March which means storms, its been a long time since NC has had any real severe season in the spring.....obviously 2011 was terrible but since then it seems March-May has been cool and storms hard to come by. 

It's trying...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.png

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55 minutes ago, JoshM said:

It's trying...

 

No worries CMC says just wait till Sat lol....the GFS's are kinda close Sat too lol...winter is such a friggen tease here at the end....

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_27.thumb.png.7f6fbc2825f2289f92b82da66ce57aad.png

gem_asnow24_seus_24.thumb.png.c48ac5b1a4302f5b0f56b94660912adb.png

 

 

 

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My favorite! Leeside enhancement! Let's do this!

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

Still there at 06Z. Winning!

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

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RAH gives us a little hope. It's all we got:

The EC, GEM, and NAM all remain dry through Thursday. However, the latest 2 runs of the operational GFS, along with a majority of the GEFS members have trended wetter Monday night and into Tuesday; with an area of precip blossoming east of the mountains, in response to shortwave perturbations embedded in the broad cyclonic flow aloft and resultant weak spin up of a sfc low across SE US. Will keep forecast dry for now, but will closely monitor as temps aloft and at the sfc would be sufficiently cold enough to support some light snow(liquid equivalent ~.10") across the NC Piedmont.

cP airmass in place will begin to moderate on Thursday as the parent high across the area begins to break down, under zonal flow aloft. Significant model differences arise by Friday and into the weekend, as a series of shortwave troughs with Pacific origins eject east across the CONUS. While it looks like the arrival of the deeper moisture will hold off until Friday or even Saturday, like precip could spread into the area as early as Thursday night/early Friday morning. Given antecedent cP airmass in place, favorable nocturnal timing of precip across the area Thursday night/Friday morning, could support a brief period of frozen or freezing precip at onset, before changing over to all rain.

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16 minutes ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

3 straight runs of the GFS showing something Tuesday night

And the "jackpot zone" (if you can call 1.5 inches a "jackpot") is in the lee of the Apps in each case.  I think that's good.  Amirite?  Or, should I concede to the conventional wisdom that you never want to be in the "jackpot zone" three or four days out?

I'm just gonna grasp at any straws thrown my way right now...

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1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

And the "jackpot zone" (if you can call 1.5 inches a "jackpot") is in the lee of the Apps in each case.  I think that's good.  Amirite?  Or, should I concede to the conventional wisdom that you never want to be in the "jackpot zone" three or four days out?

I'm just gonna grasp at any straws thrown my way right now...

I didn't realize we were paddling the same BOAT...

 

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