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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Cant beleive we get this result. It looks like garbage h5 before hand on gfs.

There's so much energy around, it can't handle it :drunk:

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The overall setup is pretty good for a northern stream system.  We get an arctic front to plow thru on Friday, then before there is time for a warm-up, the next wave dives into the trough fairly sharply.  A good version of this type of setup would be the storm from just a year ago in mid-Jan...i.e. a Saskatchewan Screamer that manages to be sharp enough where it actually draws up some warm advection and forcing for ascent to generate precip

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Yep, GFS trying to lay down snow across south in the 1/27-28 timeframe.  Next weekend+Monday  has possibilities for sure across several models now.  Specifics TBD.

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Just now, griteater said:

It had an h5 improvement though

Oh yea big time. It was so flat looking i figured no way the ns would be able to scream straight down, looked like lower end of a bowling ball across conus. Oh well, glad i was wrong.

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

Not gonna cry not gonna cry not gonna cry....

I wouldn't worry about the moisture. Every storm we have had this season has over-performed. This one will be no exception. It may be east of us or west of us, but it will not be dry.

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2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Canadian has the moisture. We get ice on that run and west 77 hammered. No doubt mid to late next weekend is the opportunity to score.

Hey buddy, go look at the 0z ICON... Only goes out to hr180 for end of run, but go forward in time after that and it will be a deep burier for my half of the board

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12 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I wouldn't worry about the moisture. Every storm we have had this season has over-performed. This one will be no exception. It may be east of us or west of us, but it will not be dry.

Yeah, that's what you see with the various ensemble members....some west and well developed...some east and well developed.....some east and weaker

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

FV3 doesn't develop the low and precip very much this run (low is farther east), but it has light snows in E NC.  h5 wave looked similar to 18z overall.

??? It is only out to hr78...

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Just wobbles on a day 8 system so it’s too far out to have more than a casual interest 

Actually I just looked at the 180-206 ptype map on that site.... Looks nice and blue for my area (unless I need to go by the boundary layer contor, in that case im screwed by warm nose)

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Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles! I don’t care what any run of an OP does right now. Seeing support gathering around a specific date on many ensemble members is what I want to start seeing right now. Hoping 0z will keep up what 18z started on the GEFS.

Closest station to me at 12z vs. 18z. A lot more members started showing the goods around the 27th/28th

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles! I don’t care what any run of an OP does right now. Seeing support gathering around a specific date on many ensemble members is what I want to start seeing right now. Hoping 0z will keep up what 18z started on the GEFS.

Closest station to me at 12z vs. 18z. A lot more members started showing the goods around the 27th/28th

The 00z GEFS Mean is improved.  Here are the last 6 runs for next Monday...last image is the most recent run at 00z

1az3M2J.gif

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20 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Too tired to wait for gefs. Only out to 72 pivotal. Time to start counting up and keeping score on eps and gefs for next weekend. 

GEFS gives support, with a second thumper on 1-31/2-1

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Yep. Ensemble means are definitely on the rise for several runs in a row now. Over 6 inches now in N GA mountains. So I think we’ve officially got something to track, that actually has ensemble support now. Obviously a week out everything under the sun can go wrong, but this is the first real threat of the pattern flip.

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