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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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35 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I love it. The models (6z FV3 and GFS) wants to give us the middle finger for one last time this season with a day 7 fantasy storm.

6z FV3:

 

aaaa.jpg

That’s awesome.  Will we finally be able to get one stick around till the100 hour mark?

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18 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

That’s awesome.  Will we finally be able to get one stick around till the100 hour mark?

Yeah until this year, a storm showing at this range would really peak the interest. We've even created storm threads for day 7 storms. But this year, I'm not sure when to take storm threats seriously.   

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah until this year, a storm showing at this range would really peak the interest. We've even created storm threads for day 7 storms. But this year, I'm not sure when to take storm threats seriously.   

12 hours still might be a bit early, but it would probably be at least within the window of appropriate lead time for a thread this year.

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52 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

12 hours still might be a bit early, but it would probably be at least within the window of appropriate lead time for a thread this year.

I'm in when #JBurns sees flakes.

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2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

Nada, < 1" of slop

Same here.  Thought you would have done a bit better.  Maybe we can get a March Miracle.

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The 12 GFS continues to show the storm, but the FV3 pushed the low through too quick which didn't allow the high to the north push down in time to change rain over to snow. But that's just details. Players are on the field; just don't know how good they are....

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52 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

This would be nice...

 

aaaa.jpg

If and BIG if here that verified wonder what the top analoges would be. I don't like how the cold air has to play catch up and the fact its late March.

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From RAH:

The next wx system will come during the first half of next week. It`s an interesting system with models depicting a closed H5 low dropping SEWD from the Central Plains to across the Carolinas. Thermo profiles would suggest perhaps a late-season p-type concern across the Piedmont, but given that this system is so late in the forecast period, inevitably the details will change below now and then. Will continue to monitor model trends, and for now will show increasing PoPs during this time.

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Where the heck was this in Jan and February... lol, What Beautiful set up... The 12z Euro was just a hair too warm this run.

 sfcmslp.conus.png

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Folks, I wouldn't "Give-up" on *Winter* until the Wilmington, Azalea Festival, As long  as  I've resided in the SENC.   Always We get very cold, or Wintery Weather, (Sleet or Ice),  by that Date. April 3rd~7th..   As long as I've lived here @ the Beach, oh, about the last 50 years..  (Very few "Warm" Festival(s) during My time residing here)...

That said,,  What @jjwxman, posted, "could" trend colder..  ;) In Our Favor.. 

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Though this storm was much larger and covered GA/SC/NC its still the closest thing to something like what the GFS has in living memory....its been 35 years since something like that has happened...

accum.19830325.gif.5bf298863af0e5756fd195494a72fa0e.gif

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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Though this storm was much larger and covered GA/SC/NC its still the closest thing to something like what the GFS has in living memory....its been 35 years since something like that has happened...

accum.19830325.gif.5bf298863af0e5756fd195494a72fa0e.gif

35 years? Guess we're due, right?

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6z GFS has backed off some but still shows frozen precip over northeastern NC into SE VA. The FV3 has less but is showing more potential then previous runs.

My take looking at the current models, we could see some change over to snow for north-central NC eastwards into the north-central coastal plain then up into SE VA. But I wouldn't expect much accumulations.  

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