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Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here's hoping for an awesome January! There's already a nice fantasy storm on the Fv3 and we are in MJO phase 4, heading toward warmer phases:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh330-360.gif

May be a tad bit early for my thinking, but after looking at the Weeklies and teleconnections accompanying them...there might be a storm to begin the next round of cold in early January.  I always look for those at the beginning and ending of a pattern.  Also, nice to see that storm track being a dominant one this winter.  Hopefully that pays off once the cold returns.  Glad you shared it.  Right now, I have only been looking at ensembles.  I was looking forward to the Weeklies this run and was not disappointed.  Hopefully Jeff will add some of his thinking in the pattern thread.  

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Just going to throw this in banter and go hide somewhere. (I................... borrowed it....................from another place). eps banter.png

That is the Weeklies map...needless to say they were pretty good from week 3 onward.  Might as well drop that in the main pattern thread.  Was a heckuva run.

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Merry Christmas, TN Valley Sub-forum.  We can dream, right???!!!!
 
Car-buried-in-Snow-Flylow-Gear.jpg&key=94f08b75e4775cfd6c0065a47ed12bf88236e196a29a3eb08c87bb5125b06311
Construction in those parts take into account many feet of snow. If a blizzard like that hit the Tennessee Valley, it would be a national emergency due to the multitude of roof collapses. I love big snows, but I don't know about 4+ feet. lol... At any rate, Merry Christmas to all!
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was the southern weather site set up just to mock this site? i ask because the majority here are reasonable, while the vast majority there are imby rules breakers mocking science.....storm5 is a prime example that kid was spain park chris in Spanns chats years ago and was the most negative person i ever encountered about the weather.....they banned me there but still lie in claiming i am not banned.....i seek discussion of the weather and find it here, and really do see mocking of that type effort over there with the constant negative stupid comments. example = "At what point do we start worrying about weeds? Especially given all the rain." is that a science based comment about the current or upcoming weather?

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On 12/27/2018 at 11:25 AM, BillT said:

was the southern weather site set up just to mock this site? i ask because the majority here are reasonable, while the vast majority there are imby rules breakers mocking science.....storm5 is a prime example that kid was spain park chris in Spanns chats years ago and was the most negative person i ever encountered about the weather.....they banned me there but still lie in claiming i am not banned.....i seek discussion of the weather and find it here, and really do see mocking of that type effort over there with the constant negative stupid comments. example = "At what point do we start worrying about weeds? Especially given all the rain." is that a science based comment about the current or upcoming weather?

Not sure. The SouthernWx forum acts like an extension of the SE AmericanWx forum, though as you alluded to, the need for moderation is much greater that way given the trolling (took a one month test drive years ago and had a hard time justifying the time). Perhaps the site was set up to attract locals who simply wanted to talk weather rather than analyze weather? At any rate, there are other local weather forums, but AmericanWx does the best job in facilitating intellectual community. No cliques, no drama. Just come as you are and relish the 'Cheers' camaraderie. 

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20 hours ago, *Flash* said:

Not sure. The SouthernWx forum acts like an extension of the SE AmericanWx forum, though as you alluded to, the need for moderation is much greater that way given the trolling (took a one month test drive years ago and had a hard time justifying the time). Perhaps the site was set up to attract locals who simply wanted to talk weather rather than analyze weather? At any rate, there are only local weather forums, but AmericanWx does the best job in facilitating intellectual community. No cliques, no drama. Just come as you are and relish the 'Cheers' camaraderie. 

It is difficult at best to have to weed thru the comments. Only a few with science backing what they say and it is so tiresome hearing over and over from the same ones how they feel about the current models. You guys truly have a great forum and thankful to visit here and get sound reasoning.

 

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Just my 2 cents, but out of all the weather message boards I've visited, Americanwx is number 1 in my book. I definitely appreciate all of the short and long term weather discussions by meteorologists and weather enthusiasts on this site. I've learned a good bit more about the weather by being on this site.

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And it came to pass in those days that the lands were soaked. Yet the hills and plains and mountains of the Tanasi coveted that they should be named Rainforest. Yea yes and verily did even the hills cry out: "Oh, that we might have a drop more of rain! Oh that the heavens would open and flood us with their love!" And lo, the Tropics heard. They discussed in their councils what should be done. Some said that moisture should be sent from the south and east, where it was abundant, moreover was it closer to the needful place, yea even being nigh to the lands of the Tanasi; others considered that the rains might be more abundant and beneficial if they came from the south and west, that they might quench the desert sands on their way. At length it was decided that all the rains must go, so dire was the need. And so it was that the vapors of water converged in the Gulf of Mexico and as they travelled north they found even to their surprise great divergence aloft and forsooth jet entrance regions to greet them with their mighty lift. For the Lord of the Pacific had wretched and forth sprang a vort max full grown and robust to help them. And the rains fell and the mountains did rejoice. 

download (2).png

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9 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And it came to pass in those days that the lands were soaked. Yet the hills and plains and mountains of the Tanasi coveted that they should be named Rainforest. Yea yes and verily did even the hills cry out: "Oh, that we might have a drop more of rain! Oh that the heavens would open and flood us with their love!" And lo, the Tropics heard. They discussed in their councils what should be done. Some said that moisture should be sent from the south and east, where it was abundant, moreover was it closer to the needful place, yea even being nigh to the lands of the Tanasi; others considered that the rains might be more abundant and beneficial if they came from the south and west, that they might quench the desert sands on their way. At length it was decided that all the rains must go, so dire was the need. And so it was that the vapors of water converged in the Gulf of Mexico and as they travelled north they found even to their surprise great divergence aloft and forsooth jet entrance regions to greet them with their mighty lift. For the Lord of the Pacific had wretched and forth sprang a vort max full grown and robust to help them. And the rains fell and the mountains did rejoice. 

download (2).png

I like this translation. Too bad it’s not on Bible Gateway. ;)

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GFS and the Euro are getting closer. Somewhere between Nashville to Fayetteville  in a SW to NE line wins big between the two. GFS was a big hitter from Memphis to Clarksville. The Euro was NW of that area. Big shift for the GFS from 0z to 06z. Still a long way out and a lot of wiggle room to go with it but not terribly long at this point. The GFS gets things cooking over West Tn and and Southern Arkansas during the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

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21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

GFS and the Euro are getting closer. Somewhere between Nashville to Fayetteville  in a SW to NE line wins big between the two. GFS was a big hitter from Memphis to Clarksville. The Euro was NW of that area. Big shift for the GFS from 0z to 06z. Still a long way out and a lot of wiggle room to go with it but not terribly long at this point. The GFS gets things cooking over West Tn and and Southern Arkansas during the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

Interesting, definitely a welcome sight to my eyes this morning.  Models are hinting at something for sure, maybe we can get the variables to line up for us!!

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8 hours ago, *Flash* said:
17 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

I like this translation. Too bad it’s not on Bible Gateway. ;)

It's an apocryphal prophecy book (Prophecies of the Tanasi), which seems to have been thrown out pretty early because of its dubious provenance, only recently rediscovered by "Ancient Alien Man" from the History Channel. There are some who say he just made it up though, because if it is indeed as old as he suggests and Phoenician sailors carried it across the Atlantic, it would most certainly been made of papyrus and have rotted in its supposed depository, a secret cave in the Blue Ridge whose location only Ancient Alien Man knows.  There is a possibly mention of it in Pseudo Isidore, but sadly that particular section was partially burned in the 1670 century it what seems like a vain attempt to keep a minor English noble's manor house warm during the Maunder Minimum.  

Even more sadly the section I quoted from ends (as all of the saddest stories do) when the lands of the Tanasi get exactly what they want, but it turns out to be not what they needed. There's wailing and gnashing of teeth. And rain. 

Here's another section that may be significant: 

"And it came to pass in those days that the storms came, the south winds blew, rain soaked the land, and snow lovers cried unto the heavens, yet not fully understanding the strange and ancient prophecy

 'Oh, let the one called Modoki be born again in the midst of the Great Sea, as in ancient times, as he shall be born again, time without end. And let the sun wane still and silent, so that verily its spots be lost. And let the sacred Wheel of Mad-Julen break and falter in the West.  Yea yes and even upon its second spoke. And let the enmity between the ancient enemies Darwin and Tahiti drop into the abyss so that their weapons the Cells of Hadley and the Jet of the Sea die. And let a sign be given even in the upper heavens that the balance be restored and the snows returned.'

And they waited to see if they were heard and beyond their ken, the highest heavens gave then a sign."

Ancient Alien Man claims that in the margin of this section there was a drawing that looked like a blue and red yin/yang symbol alongside a wobbly line that travelled around a square divided into 8 sections made by lines radiating from a circle in the square's middle. But since he refuses to produce the manuscript (claims it is too fragile), we have no way of verifying these claims. 

 

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5 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

Interesting, definitely a welcome sight to my eyes this morning.  Models are hinting at something for sure, maybe we can get the variables to line up for us!!

You and me both! Maybe this is yet another example of NA modeling losing a system in the mid-range only to bring it back nearer the double digit hour mark.

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21 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

You and me both! Maybe this is yet anther example of NA modeling losing a system in the mid-range only to bring it back nearer the double digit hour mark.

  I hope so!  Often times we talk about systems like these coming right before a semi pattern change, maybe this is our treat before the January warm up period.  It has happened like this before so it will happen again eventually.  

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