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Carvers Gap

Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019

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Welp, it is finally December!!!!  Here is the banter thread for DJF.   Sitting here on a beautiful, sunny day after a cold November.  Time to drink some egg nog, watch the college football playoffs, talk some basketball, and prep for the Super Bowl.  And of course sprinkle in a bit of weather talk!

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13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Welp, it is finally December!!!!  Here is the banter thread for DJF.   Sitting here on a beautiful, sunny day after a cold November.  Time to drink some egg nog, watch the college football playoffs, talk some basketball, and prep for the Super Bowl.  And of course sprinkle in a bit of weather talk!

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You serious, Carvers? 

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In hopes that we can score some decent sledding events this winter....

This is a new non-caloric silicon-based kitchen lubricant my company has been working on.  It creates a surface 500 times more slippery than cooking oil.  Ahhh!  We're really going to fly down the hill with this stuff.  ~ Clark Griswold

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

If the deep south gets another mega snow event while we get nothing like the Euro spit out, I'm moving to Hawaii and abandoning snow. 

If the snow misses us after I moved to the plateau, I must be cursed, lol.

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December snow is the best, and while ill always take a Christmas snow, I actually enjoy a snow leading up to Christmas as much or more (although Christmas eve might be the pinnacle for a snow event) than Xmas day snow etc.  Gets me in the festive mode if we can get a snow between Dec 5 onward

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Regarding thread names:  I had mentioned in a thread during November (too lazy to go find it) that it would be a good idea to start a new winter thread since the spec thread was begun during July.  Last year we rolled the pre-winter thread into the winter thread.   In years past prior to that, we have had a stand alone winter thread that was begun in early December in order to discuss the pattern.  That is what was done this time.  I suggested that we name them by month this year(with the assumption this might be a busy winter) as it makes information easier to find during future searches - basically organizing by month like chapters in a book.  We have been doing this for a couple of weeks and had opened it up for discussion sometime before Thanksgiving.   @AMZ8990, I might suggest renaming the Winter Speculation December thread to... 2018 December Pattern Discussion Thread or something like that.   Also, I think it reasonable to unpin the winter speculation thread that was created on July 2 and retire it.  @Mr Bob, your call.  If this storm threat is still there tomorrow, someone might want to be brave enough to start a thread.  If it turns out to be nothing, nobody will fault you.  

Up to this point, the December thread has been working pretty well...

 

 

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I agree. December name change to Pattern Discussion or even Forecast thread would ease confusion with the other Speculation title thread. 

Original Winter Speculation from July could either be closed, or continued as Long-Range. I'm thinking Jan/Feb (now) or months 2-3 at any time, based on a current month Forecast thread going. Winter Spec is already rightfully evolving that direction.

Finally, my Sunday post with points 1-4 I forgot 5: Thunder now, snow next week. In Illinois and Kansas* it is tornadoes now, snow next week. 

*Kansas did not have tornadoes this time, but OK did. I can remember past years tornado, snow in KS though.

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I think it might not be a bad idea to get the LR stuff into a new thread.  @AMZ8990, you manage the thread titles for both threads so this should be easy. Why not change the original Winter Spec Thread to “Long Range Winter Speculation 18-19” w a subheading of “2-3 Month Long Lead Discussion”.   Then change the Winter Spec Dec Thread to “December 2018 Pattern and Forecast Discussion.”  That should clear things up and even make the threads a bit easier to follow.

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54 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think it might not be a bad idea to get the LR stuff into a new thread.  @AMZ8990, you manage the thread titles for both threads so this should be easy. Why not change the original Winter Spec Thread to “Long Range Winter Speculation 18-19” w a subheading of “2-3 Month Long Lead Discussion”.   Then change the Winter Spec Dec Thread to “December 2018 Pattern and Forecast Discussion.”  That should clear things up and even make the threads a bit easier to follow.

  Sounds like a plan @Carvers Gap,  I’ll get them changed up here shortly.  I agree that shoulD clear up any uncertainty people are having!!

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1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

  Sounds like a plan @Carvers Gap,  I’ll get them changed up here shortly.  I agree that shoulD clear up any uncertainty people are having!!

Just looked.  Perfect and thanks for being willing to do that.  You're a pro at this!  Awesome job.

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Hi, I just moved to Clarksville from DC. What kind of winters can I expect around here? The mid Atlantic is full of heartbreak and despair with a few jackpots now and then. I imagine this area is much the same but with smaller snowfall amounts? Looking forward to following along here. 

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5 minutes ago, Drummer230 said:

Hi, I just moved to Clarksville from DC. What kind of winters can I expect around here? The mid Atlantic is full of heartbreak and despair with a few jackpots now and then. I imagine this area is much the same but with smaller snowfall amounts? Looking forward to following along here. 

Welcome aboard!!!!  I won't even try to answer for middle TN.  Plenty of great posters from that area will probably chime-in.  If I tried to name them, I would forget someone.  Great to have another poster from middle TN

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31 minutes ago, Drummer230 said:

Hi, I just moved to Clarksville from DC. What kind of winters can I expect around here? The mid Atlantic is full of heartbreak and despair with a few jackpots now and then. I imagine this area is much the same but with smaller snowfall amounts? Looking forward to following along here. 

Not from Mid-Tennessee either but welcome to the Tennessee Valley! Here is some climate information for Clarksville, TN. https://www.weather-us.com/en/tennessee-usa/clarksville-climate

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Welcome to our Region @Drummer230 hope you like Tennessee! Clarksville is full of Southern Discomfort (snow heart break). Still it is on the better side of our Region. Mid South mauler might drag a warm nose into BNA; however, Clarksville could still eek out snow. If northwest Tennessee and western Kentucky are in a snow band, it can clip Clarksville. Good luck!

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Okay, if anyone is looking for a great Christmas gift for me, I'd like this framed and matted to hang in my office for those days when I come in from working outside in 90+ degree heat! ;) 

I hope someone hits the jackpot in our forum area from this system, even if this insanity doesn't verify! :D 

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This system will be the first gulf low/slider for me since relocating to Greeneville. Greene Co. is often a battleground for the Valley warm nose; the December 2009 winter storm serves as a prime example. Greeneville proper received 4", while the westernmost portions of Greene Co. recorded nothing more than token flakes mixed with steady rain. The easternmost Greene Co. mountains recorded upwards of one foot. 

I'm positioned dead center by longitude and slightly south by latitude. Interesting times ahead! :drunk:

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7 hours ago, John1122 said:

I never thought I'd say this, but 3 feet of snow might be too much even for me.  I can't imagine the power line wreckage. 

It takes a yard of snow on the ground to entirely stop my desire for more.

And also...  :gun_bandana: ICON

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23 hours ago, kvskelton said:

Okay, if anyone is looking for a great Christmas gift for me, I'd like this framed and matted to hang in my office for those days when I come in from working outside in 90+ degree heat! ;) 

I hope someone hits the jackpot in our forum area from this system, even if this insanity doesn't verify! :D 

10d total for the 12.5.18 12z map(today).  This map includes a second storm around d8-9...but that is this is the 3rd run w crazy numbers.  0z on Dec 3 was huge as well for the Euro.  That is basically almost double our seasonal norm with one run.  LOL.  I know, everyone.  That is why I put it in banter.  Just for the mantel of digital snow.

Screen Shot 2018-12-05 at 2.17.16 PM.png

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32 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Yep I hadn't even been looking beyond this event. How long has the next one been on models? It seems to give my area another 2-4 inches.

I think just today.  Happens maybe around d8.  Odd setup where there was a line of rain a few runs ago.  But there has been a strong storm after this one on the models...can’t remember if Weeklies or d10-15 EPS.  Almost like a bowling ball or cutoff but not quite...the thing went full neg tilt at d9-10.

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2 hours ago, *Flash* said:

My mind needs to zoom out a bit. It seems when you plot main hubs along I-40, Memphis/Nashville are the biggest losers when it comes to snow. Gotta think this has something to do with our proximity/placement with respect to the Gulf. I obviously know we slot or nose our way to L's often and can't capitalize on CAD. Just curious as to how much our specific geography is to blame? Crazy to think Little Rock, Charlotte, Raleigh, OKC/Tulsa have far exceeded BNA in snow totals the past decade.

We just live in a suck area for good snows.You either get the nose or HP suppresses any moisture and when you think you got moisture here comes convection down south that stops that.Cut through Alabama plain and simple for us,east might not  like that but that's what we want not systems that go through N/FL

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