E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

[RedSky]

GFS #2 is rain Christmas Eve morning and it's bizarre to have such a significant timing difference with the ECM late Christmas day precipitation arrival.

 

[RedSky]

0z ECM says aaaaand it's gone...

They don't do football in europe I don't get the mid range Christmas Lucy

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

0z ECM says aaaaand it's gone...

They don't do football in europe I don't get the mid range Christmas Lucy

 

 

They just started nfl games in London a few years ago so the Lucy football yank is still in its infancy stage over there but I see the learning curve is likely very small.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Fwiw the latest CFS monthlies and weeklies are bone dry in the East after next week except for FL. 

[The Iceman]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fwiw the latest CFS monthlies and weeklies are bone dry in the East after next week except for FL. 

I worry that we get too good of blocking leading to suppression...that's pretty much the CFS. The SSW may end  up being a curse more than a blessing in that we may go from average cold and rain to f***ing cold and dry. A lot of times we don't score until the epic pattern breaks down. If that's the case, may not be until february...

[The Iceman]

FWIW quite a few EPS members have 2-3" of snow for much of the area for the xmas threat. It's going to come down to track but has the makings of a surprise event that comes together inside 84 hours. GEFS only has one with that kind of snow, but several with mood flakes/coating-1".

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I worry that we get too good of blocking leading to suppression...that's pretty much the CFS. The SSW may end  up being a curse more than a blessing in that we may go from average cold and rain to f***ing cold and dry. A lot of times we don't score until the epic pattern breaks down. If that's the case, may not be until february...

There are quite a few clues that are showing the PV setting up shop in SE Canada and completely overwhelming the pattern with cold but very dry for us. CFS doesnt even return anyone from the Mid Atl on Northward to N/AN precip until April which would be a crummy cold wet spring pattern. Again this is all speculation based on modeling but yeah, unless the PV split aligns just right it could be quite a problem and negate the El Nino effects basically. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, The Iceman said:

FWIW quite a few EPS members have 2-3" of snow for much of the area for the xmas threat. It's going to come down to track but has the makings of a surprise event that comes together inside 84 hours.

Agree with the short range surprise thing as alluded to last week. NS is ripping along right now like last year. EPS is basically alone now with the threat as most other ops and ens members have lost it. Lots of energy moving thru tho between the 23rd and 27th so maybe we can get a quick hitter to track under the region. 

[The Iceman]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

There are quite a few clues that are showing the PV setting up shop in SE Canada and completely overwhelming the pattern with cold but very dry for us. CFS doesnt even return anyone from the Mid Atl on Northward to N/AN precip until April which would be a crummy cold wet spring pattern. Again this is all speculation based on modeling but yeah, unless the PV split aligns just right it could be quite a problem and negate the El Nino effects basically. 

what a kick in the nuts that would be. finally get the cold and we get no precip after the one of the wettest if not the wettest OND period... 

[The Iceman]

13-14 if I remember was pretty dry but still active. No 1" QPF monsters but seemed like we got a clipper/wave that slid underneath dropping 1-3/2-4 every week. The good thing about cold is we can  squeeze everything we can squeeze out of the precip we do get, so all may not be lost even if the PV sets up shop in a bad spot. Just wouldn't expect a big one until the pattern breaks down. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There are quite a few clues that are showing the PV setting up shop in SE Canada and completely overwhelming the pattern with cold but very dry for us. CFS doesnt even return anyone from the Mid Atl on Northward to N/AN precip until April which would be a crummy cold wet spring pattern. Again this is all speculation based on modeling but yeah, unless the PV split aligns just right it could be quite a problem and negate the El Nino effects basically. 

Yeah, that would definitely hurt...first El Nino in almost three years only to get cut off by that lobe of the PV? Ouch! But hey, at least we'd all be suffering together, lol (and maybe it could break down in February?...)

[ChescoWx]

My Wxsim program is painting up to 2.50" of rain falling across East Nantmeal Township by Saturday AM. By later today we will be setting a new all-time Chester County PA record for wettest year - eclipsing the 75.12" that fell in 1996. We currently stand at 74.94".

Also keeping an eye on 3 potential winter events between now and New Years Eve. The 1st 2 will be weak but may be just enough to give spots a White Christmas north of the mason dixon line. The third one will near New Years Eve has a chance to be a bit more significant....but plenty of time for that to change. Thinking we end up slightly above normal for December temps and below normal snowfall (4.7") however season to date we will still be above average as we already have received 7.3" of snow while normal through the end of December is only 6.0". Still liking below normal (29.9) temps in January and above normal (10.7") snowfall including at least 1 major snowstorm >10". 

[KamuSnow]

11 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

My Wxsim program is painting up to 2.50" of rain falling across East Nantmeal Township by Saturday AM. By later today we will be setting a new all-time Chester County PA record for wettest year - eclipsing the 75.12" that fell in 1996. We currently stand at 74.94".

Also keeping an eye on 3 potential winter events between now and New Years Eve. The 1st 2 will be weak but may be just enough to give spots a White Christmas north of the mason dixon line. The third one will near New Years Eve has a chance to be a bit more significant....but plenty of time for that to change. Thinking we end up slightly above normal for December temps and below normal snowfall (4.7") however season to date we will still be above average as we already have received 7.3" of snow while normal through the end of December is only 6.0". Still liking below normal (29.9) temps in January and above normal (10.7") snowfall including at least 1 major snowstorm >10". 

Let's hope we get the 10 incher early so we can have snow on the ground for the potential weeks of cold and dry!

[ChescoWx]

2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

I worry that we get too good of blocking leading to suppression...that's pretty much the CFS. The SSW may end  up being a curse more than a blessing in that we may go from average cold and rain to f***ing cold and dry. A lot of times we don't score until the epic pattern breaks down. If that's the case, may not be until february...

If you are a snow lover always root on the cold....I will take my chances on getting moisture involved.....

[ChescoWx]

28 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Let's hope we get the 10 incher early so we can have snow on the ground for the potential weeks of cold and dry!

Not likely IMHO - although I do agree next summer will be much drier than this year - now how is that for a brave forecast!!!

[KamuSnow]

40 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Not likely IMHO - although I do agree next summer will be much drier than this year - now how is that for a brave forecast!!!

Lol pretty safe bet it would seem!

[Hurricane Agnes]

On 12/19/2018 at 11:21 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Hello! Do any of you know where I can find the snow records for the philly/new Jersey area? Just curiously comparing apples to apples here....There has been a lot of talk about the active moisture train we've had up and down the MA this year...What has baffled me is why the wettest years we have down here in Baltimore...have not been followed by above average snowfall! So, I'm looking for data from the winters that followed 1889, 1979, 1996, and 2003. Down here, the winters that followed were kinda mediocre...so I'm wondering if it was the same up here! (Needless to say this worries me for all of us!)

I know Don Sutherland has sources somewhere because he always pops into threads and posts them (as do others) but over the years, I always used the Franklin Institute data as a quickie source - https://www.fi.edu/history-resources/philadelphia-weather-data

(scroll down and there is a link to a spreadsheet where one of the tabs lists snowfall by years from 1884 - 2015 and you can go into the 2006 - 2018 tab to get the snowfall data for years since 2015)

They are an official station (at the museum) but I think their archived data includes the historic readings taken at Independence Hall (or in the area), pre-airports.

[KamuSnow]

36F and very light rain starting here.

[ChescoWx]

On 12/19/2018 at 11:21 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Hello! Do any of you know where I can find the snow records for the philly/new Jersey area? Just curiously comparing apples to apples here....There has been a lot of talk about the active moisture train we've had up and down the MA this year...What has baffled me is why the wettest years we have down here in Baltimore...have not been followed by above average snowfall! So, I'm looking for data from the winters that followed 1889, 1979, 1996, and 2003. Down here, the winters that followed were kinda mediocre...so I'm wondering if it was the same up here! (Needless to say this worries me for all of us!)

Hello I did a little more research with more wet years. The below is coop data for Chester County PA (1894 to Present) Top 12 wettest years and snow seasons to follow. To put this in context we average 36.4" of snow in an average season. In the 12 wettest years the snow totals for the winter season averaged 42.0" so about 6" above normal. Ranging from as much as 87" to as little as 13"

Rank/Year/Rain/Snow

1) 1996/75.12"/35.4"

2) 1979/66.88"/12.8"

3) 2003/63.06"/41.5"

4 ) 1902/59.49"/25.8"

5) 2009/58.19"/86.6"

6) 1983/58.12"/33.8"

7) 1901/56.40"/29.4"

8) 1993/56.17"/45.7"

9) 1894/56.06"/50.4"

10) 1952/56.05"/21.3"

11) 1906/55.59"/71.8"

12) 1933/55.02"/48.9"

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Hello I did a little more research with more wet years. The below is coop data for Chester County PA (1894 to Present) Top 12 wettest years and snow seasons to follow. To put this in context we average 36.4" of snow in an average season. In the 12 wettest years the snow totals for the winter season averaged 42.0" so about 6" above normal. Ranging from as much as 87" to as little as 13"

Rank/Year/Rain/Snow

1) 1996/75.12"/35.4"

2) 1979/66.88"/12.8"

3) 2003/63.06"/41.5"

4 ) 1902/59.49"/25.8"

5) 2009/58.19"/86.6"

6) 1983/58.12"/33.8"

7) 1901/56.40"/29.4"

8) 1993/56.17"/45.7"

9) 1894/56.06"/50.4"

10) 1952/56.05"/21.3"

11) 1906/55.59"/71.8"

12) 1933/55.02"/48.9"

Wow! Seems like a lot of people from the Mid-Atl north got the snow shaft that year, lol (in fact, NYC measured that exact amount as well). Wonder what happened with that El Niño? (someone in my home forum told me that we had a lot of close misses to the south that year!)

[The Iceman]

drizzle/light rain has begun here. Moisture plume looks incredible on radar...shame we have no blocking to hold the cold air in place because this could of been epic. Temp is 42.  12z suite was pretty unanimous in a widespread 2"+ rainfall for much of SE PA and all of NJ. There will be localized 3-4"+ totals though somewhere with the PWATS and moisture transport in place. Lets hope we see some thunderstorms so the JB rule can go in effect.(snow in the NE within 10 days following a thunderstorm in winter)..

[zenmsav6810]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

drizzle/light rain has begun here. Moisture plume looks incredible on radar...shame we have no blocking to hold the cold air in place because this could of been epic. Temp is 42.  12z suite was pretty unanimous in a widespread 2"+ rainfall for much of SE PA and all of NJ. There will be localized 3-4"+ totals though somewhere with the PWATS and moisture transport in place. Lets hope we see some thunderstorms so the JB rule can go in effect.(snow in the NE within 10 days following a thunderstorm in winter)..

Yeah, hard to believe thats all it would have really taken to make this the all-timer-to-end-all-times. 

[Birds~69]

Raining and good slug coming through....traffic sucks!!! Holidays, my ass....

[Newman]

GEFS members for the 24th. Quite a few bring snow to the region, especially NW

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z GFS has a steady stream of frozen threats to start the New Year going forward.

[ChescoWx]

Euro modeling certainly supporting what I have been saying for the last month about the January pattern - below is the forecast snow anomaly - but of course as a wiser man than I once said - you don't shovel model output!

 

[Newman]

The GEFS show plenty of potential for the New Years time frame.

[RedSky]

12z Breakdown for our next "chance" New Years Day

Old gimpy GFS a nice snow

New god knows what it is GFS has a cutter

ECM a southern slider

All bases covered? Check

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, RedSky said:

12z Breakdown for our next "chance" New Years Day

Old gimpy GFS a nice snow

New god knows what it is GFS has a cutter

ECM a southern slider

All bases covered? Check

 

 

That isn't a 'southern slider' imho....it is very much like the gfs op with slp off the SE coast but majority of qpf far North and overrunning. Hybrid gradient type setup. Looks acceptable to me at this range. I strongly doubt any model has the solution dialed in.

[RedSky]

5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That isn't a 'southern slider' imho....it is very much like the gfs op with slp off the SE coast but majority of qpf far North and overrunning. Hybrid gradient type setup. Looks acceptable to me at this range. I strongly doubt any model has the solution dialed in.

Wait until 0z give it time it might follow the twins GFS to Montana lol