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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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44 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Even 1-3" would be good. Just to get that feel we're on the right track.

We're in a major funk right now.Cloudy/chilly/cold/ rain...repeat. And today we have fog...  

A coating to an inch is a win. Beggars cant be choosers. I see this as the most likely option for SE PA not verbatim but as in a light event as we get skirted/brushed

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

A coating to an inch is a win. Beggars cant be choosers. I see this as the most likely option for SE PA not verbatim but as in a light event as we get skirted/brushed

Notice the absolutely hilarious gradient that runs NW to SE instead of the usual SW to NE with a south coastal, it's like Monmouth has a destiny of the worst winter ever and nothing will stop it

 

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

0z runs so far 

GFS same

HIVF3xyz even further north brings mixing issues especially to yours truly

GEM went south looks like azz

Were going nowhere fast

 

oh yeah NAM looks like it's headed for a MECS lol

 

0z ECM juiced up to a region wide 4-5"(kuchera) - wrong time stamp at first look but overall a little more juiced 2-4" non kuchera

0z Ukie driest of all the runs 

 

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FVC3PO vs the world....has a 5-10" storm for SE PA and well defined upper energy while most other guidance seemingly is much flatter and more strung out. 

NAM may be NAMming us in its longest range....rather typical biases appearing.

Again tho....we continue to see essentially an all or nothing type event on guidance ie light/light-moderate (c-2 with 3 inch lollis) vs SECS/MECS (4-8"+) for SE PA. Comes down to strength/consolidation of stj energy, phase vs non or late phase, strenth/location of confluence and related HP. 

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14 hours ago, RedSky said:

18z GFS gives us 24 hours of snow, it looked good until the qpf was 1-2" snow. Can it snow that lightly I doubt it?

 

Yes it can. We've had 24 hours of "pixie dust" up here in Tamaqua that, when all was said and done, was about 1-2 inches. The snow that day was equivelent to a light drizzle, both in intensity and visual impairment.

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33 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Yes it can. We've had 24 hours of "pixie dust" up here in Tamaqua that, when all was said and done, was about 1-2 inches. The snow that day was equivelent to a light drizzle, both in intensity and visual impairment.

I've had 12-18hrs of drizzle-snow which accumulated and inch or less...I don't think I ever had 24hrs. Not that I don't believe you but seems almost impossible.

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19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

When should we/models start "locking in" to this potential event? Tomorrow night's run? Currently I feel everything is still way up in the air...more so than normal. If this damn thing slides way to the S and we get zip I may lose it.

Goalposts should be clearly set by 18z tomorrow then we just fine tune as we go.

Eta: No 'double-doink' hopefully :P

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