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wxmanmitch

NNE Winter Thread

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21 hours ago, mreaves said:

The guy who ran it passed away. 

I remember the guy who ran it posted a few years ago his wife past away.  I can't remember if he had a blog or what.  I felt bad for him.  Now he is gone too.  

Now I see his house is on the market.   A great place for a snow lover.   https://waldenvt.weebly.com/?fbclid=IwAR0oJew4EJj1uJwvH1acq5HxQfRBj_xnz1bOEaokpmxRHArJOk8pPq__l3E

 

Big snow melt day.  Snowstick was around 12" earlier and down to 9"   Mid 50's and stronger sun taking its toll.  Lots of water running down my dirt road.  Still frozen of course except the top inch or s0.

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Icy here too.  Deck stairs and pathways froze up quickly.  Closest PWS spiked into the mid-40s this afternoon but it's dropped off again this evening.  Higher elevations were significantly warmer today.

umc8hSf.jpg

 

31/31 at MVL with freezing fog.  The boundary layer is certainly moist with the damp snowpack.

METAR KMVL 050255Z AUTO 00000KT 1/4SM FZFG VV002 M01/M01 A2986

 

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On 1/30/2019 at 12:04 PM, backedgeapproaching said:

38" is the Jan record? Thought it would be higher, guess the lack of orographic and distance from Coastal storms is the reason--not sure though.

 

Actually looking at BTV--it would be top 5, so guess its within range.

 

 

yes thats exactly it, no lake effect no elevation no orographic, just open tundra.   january is also the coldest and driest month there.  they ended up with 107 cm per my dad, for the new record.

they have a constant snowpack, while the CPV melts, the thaws in ottawa are generally short lived and usually preceded by significant icing.  its a give and take.

the winters in ottawa are very harsh due to the cold, snowpack, and plenty of ice when we rain. ive been telling my elderly parents to get a winter home down south....last few years ive noticed they've been trapped inside. but i guess that happens in vermont too. 

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11 minutes ago, borderwx said:

Some “solid” conditions this morning at J :)

 

 

46272737904_77ee6d06d3_b.jpg

 

 

Yikes!  Is that a ski trail?  Looks like the groomed skating trails at Lake Morey

slide_4.jpg

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46 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Yikes!  Is that a ski trail?  Looks like the groomed skating trails at Lake Morey

slide_4.jpg

It is the bottom of Stateside, water runoff surfacing wherever it could and leaving sheets all over the mountain.

we had sun and 53, almost got the driveway back

juat flipped to snow showers now 

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6 minutes ago, borderwx said:

It is the bottom of Stateside, water runoff surfacing wherever it could and leaving sheets all over the mountain.

we had sun and 53, almost got the driveway back

juat flipped to snow showers now 

Still 50° here but the dew has started dropping.  Down to 39° from a high of 44°

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10 hours ago, alex said:

38 now but looks like it spiked to almost 50F in the middle of the night. Snow hanging on for dear life, stake down to 23"

I'm down to about 18" in the yard now.  

Did the NWS snow survey today and had 36" at 1500ft.  Down from 45" last week.  13" of water in that 36" of snow.

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42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm down to about 18" in the yard now.  

Did the NWS snow survey today and had 36" at 1500ft.  Down from 45" last week.  13" of water in that 36" of snow.

Down to 17" now! Big melt day today. Amazing how well we torch with these conditions though; down into the notch towards Hart's Location/Bartlett the snowpack is MUCH deeper even though they get much less snow. Felt so good to be outside though... Almost makes me wish it was spring! I know, I know, how sacrilegious... 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I'm down to about 18" in the yard now.  

Did the NWS snow survey today and had 36" at 1500ft.  Down from 45" last week.  13" of water in that 36" of snow.

I know you are associated with the mountain.  Any advice on whether conditions will be passable either tomorrow or Thursday.  Looking to ski with my daughter once during her week off from work.  With the freeze tonight, worried a bit about ice.  It would be her first day out.  Thursday looks to be back above freezing on the mountain with light winds and some morning sun.  Will grooming work out some of the kinks by then?   Any advice would be helpful.   Thanks.

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Just now, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

I know you are associated with the mountain.  Any advice on whether conditions will be passable either tomorrow or Thursday.  Looking to ski with my daughter once during her week off from work.  With the freeze tonight, worried a bit about ice.  It would be her first day out.  Thursday looks to be back above freezing on the mountain with light winds and some morning sun.  Will grooming work out some of the kinks by then?   Any advice would be helpful.   Thanks.

Tomorrow will be slick.  No way around it.  It hit 50F today and it's now dropped back below freezing.  Grooming will do what they can and the mountain announced a 9am opening (instead of 8am normally) to allow another hour for grooming in the morning. 

I would definitely pick Thursday out of the next 2 days.  I just think tomorrow's going to be slick granular conditions... there's really no other way around it.  At least Thursday would be two night's of grooming.  Each extra night of grooming usually helps the surface.  Temperatures should also get at least slightly above freezing on Thursday... which could help soften the conditions too.

 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Tomorrow will be slick.  No way around it.  It hit 50F today and it's now dropped back below freezing.  Grooming will do what they can and the mountain announced a 9am opening (instead of 8am normally) to allow another hour for grooming in the morning. 

I would definitely pick Thursday out of the next 2 days.  I just think tomorrow's going to be slick granular conditions... there's really no other way around it.  At least Thursday would be two night's of grooming.  Each extra night of grooming usually helps the surface.  Temperatures should also get at least slightly above freezing on Thursday... which could help soften the conditions too.

 

That all makes sense.  Thanks for the advice.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I'm down to about 18" in the yard now.  

Did the NWS snow survey today and had 36" at 1500ft.  Down from 45" last week.  13" of water in that 36" of snow.

A couple photos from the snow survey.  Still a solid snowpack at 1,500ft.

51861149_10103652003577420_9179221916240

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The NWS has Winter Weather Advisories up across the region ahead of Winter Storm Lucian, which is the next system expected to affect our area.  Snow accumulations are expected to be fairly minimal around here, with the advisory most associated with the mixed wintry precipitation that’s anticipated.  Advisory and projected snowfall maps from the BTV NWS are below:

06FEB19A.jpg

06FEB19B.jpg

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Touched 52 at my place yesterday, mildest since early Nov.  Only lost 3" of pack in the 2 mild days, now at 25" with probably 8" water.  No runoff in our yard from any melting - all absorbed by the white sponge.

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Touched 52 at my place yesterday, mildest since early Nov.  Only lost 3" of pack in the 2 mild days, now at 25" with probably 8" water.  No runoff in our yard from any melting - all absorbed by the white sponge.
That's impressive. We hit 58f on both days. Probably lost 6" and little more than half the pack. This winter has become annoying. I won't complain to the sne folks, but despite being avg at this point for snow, it still feels dull. Unless you're in Caribou where they're at 112" and almost double their avg.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

That's impressive. We hit 58f on both days. Probably lost 6" and little more than half the pack. This winter has become annoying. I won't complain to the sne folks, but despite being avg at this point for snow, it still feels dull. Unless you're in Caribou where they're at 112" and almost double their avg.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

One can be frustrated even in a good winter, with 2014-15 being my poster child.  Snowfall was 125% of average and Feb was my coldest month since moving out of Fort Kent.  The frustration came from several sources.  I had 3 WSW-ed events verify at 1/8 of the low end of forecast range - Nov. 2 (4-8 forecast, 0.5" fell, while inland Hancock/Wash Counties got 12-20), Dec. 9-11 (10-16 forecast, got 1.3 plus 2" of 33-34° RA while the mountains got a monster paste bomb), and Feb. 14-15 (12-18 blizzard forecast, got 1.5 while BOS got 16 and Machias 24.)  That doesn't include the SNJ mega-bust on Jan 26-27.  Hoping to watch the snow-loving grandkids frolic in the biggest snowstorm of their lives (forecast 12-16), we got 1.5" mush that was gone less than 4 hours after accumulation ended.  Meanwhile, on the home front we were getting the most powerful January blizzard to hit my at-the-time home in my lifetime, possibly in the top 3 for any month, with Feb. 3-4, 1961 and April 7-8, 1982.  (Though I got to move all the snow once we got there.)  It still amazes me that Feb. '15 brought 23" snow, zero non-flake precip, and had but 4 hours with temps above 30 (max 35), and still ended with the same 26" pack as it started.

I'm currently at 135% of average YTD with 8" deeper pack than average, but the parade of mixed-precip events (and skating rink driveway conditions) has been astounding.  Last month had 3 warned events (very good), none of which reached the low end of the forecast range (not so good, though all 3 got close.)  Despite that, the month gets an A for snowfall, with its 32.9" being 2nd highest of 21 Januarys.  (2015 had 4" more, but my missing that 20-incher downgrades it a bit.) 

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I'm amazed at the disparity between CVT and NVT.  Smuggs and Stowe had an awesome January where seemingly everywhere else was below average.  Glad I was up at Smuggs Jan 8th-11th for 38 inches.  You'd think thatd scratch my itch, but it just left me wanting more. 

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On ‎2‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 5:10 PM, powderfreak said:

It's hard to fathom how it snows 5 days a week (if not more) up here while 150 miles south can't buy flakes.  But even in this event there's a sharp gradient from NVT to even C.VT.

I do hear it from friends though that get around a bit skiing... that even the ski areas like MRG and Sugarbush have half the snow on the ground when compared with Stowe and Smuggs.  A former poster here was saying the difference between Stowe and Sugarbush is eye-opening... like 1500ft snow depth at Stowe (40"+) is more like 3000ft down there.  There's a sharp gradient even in the mountains along the Spine.

 

41 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said:

I'm amazed at the disparity between CVT and NVT.  Smuggs and Stowe had an awesome January where seemingly everywhere else was below average.  Glad I was up at Smuggs Jan 8th-11th for 38 inches.  You'd think thatd scratch my itch, but it just left me wanting more. 

I’ve seen the CVT/NVT snowpack disparity noted a couple of times here now, but it’s interesting, we really didn’t see it on Saturday when we were down at Brandon Gap (which I would definitely consider right smack there in the CVT zone).  It may be because of the high elevation there (base is near 2,000’), or the fact that it’s not getting lift-served levels of traffic to degrade the snow, but the snowpack there seemed really robust.

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41 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

I’ve seen the CVT/NVT snowpack disparity noted a couple of times here now, but it’s interesting, we really didn’t see it on Saturday when we were down at Brandon Gap (which I would definitely consider right smack there in the CVT zone).  It may be because of the high elevation there (base is near 2,000’), or the fact that it’s not getting lift-served levels of traffic to degrade the snow, but the snowpack there seemed really robust.

That's great news.  I rarely leave Lamoille County in the winter so I can only go by what friends or others post on social media.  

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Event totals: 0.3” Snow/0.45” L.E.

The precipitation here at the house this evening has generally been a mixture of sleet and rain from what I’ve seen, but there was definitely some freezing rain back in Burlington when I was leaving there around 5:30 P.M.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches (sleet)

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 33.4 F

Sky:  Sleet/Rain

Snow at the stake: 24.5 inches

 

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches (sleet)

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 34.5 F

Sky:  Light Rain

Snow at the stake: 24.5 inches

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11 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

I’ve seen the CVT/NVT snowpack disparity noted a couple of times here now, but it’s interesting, we really didn’t see it on Saturday when we were down at Brandon Gap (which I would definitely consider right smack there in the CVT zone).  It may be because of the high elevation there (base is near 2,000’), or the fact that it’s not getting lift-served levels of traffic to degrade the snow, but the snowpack there seemed really robust.

That's good news, I'd love to checkout Brandon's Gap.  Ifs awesome what RASTA is doing there.  I need to get a splitboard setup for next season.

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I had about 1/4 to 1/3" of glaze here. Just below damage threshold, but the birches and evergreens were sagging and bending a bit. I put a couple of pics up in the other thread.

I've been rotting at 32-33° F all day and foggy while the west slope has been 45-50° F and partly cloudy. Even Woodford has been flirting with 40° F. Incredible difference over such as short distance! The mesoscale nuances here in the Green Mountains never cease to amaze me. 

You can actually see the downslope clearing on the GOES 16 image today. Pretty neat.

 

Screen Shot 2019-02-07 at 3.30.17 PM.png

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