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wxmanmitch

NNE Winter Thread

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Figured I'd go ahead and do the honors of starting a winter NNE thread since today's the first day of met winter. Hopefully it'll continue to deliver like November did for us.

I'm at 40.5" for the season, which is awesome for 12/1. Depth is down to around 20" or so after some compaction.

HRRR wants to give us some front end goods overnight before flipping to mix and then rain. NAM on the other hand starts me as straight ZR, but still drops some snow to the north. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-12-01 at 6.44.20 PM.png

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46 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

Figured I'd go ahead and do the honors of starting a winter NNE thread since today's the first day of met winter. Hopefully it'll continue to deliver like November did for us.

I'm at 40.5" for the season, which is awesome for 12/1. Depth is down to around 20" or so after some compaction.

HRRR wants to give us some front end goods overnight before flipping to mix and then rain. NAM on the other hand starts me as straight ZR, but still drops some snow to the north. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-12-01 at 6.44.20 PM.png

I'm looking for up to an inch of snow/sleet before the ZR and RN. 

Only 8" on the ground here at home...compared to 18-20" at 1,500ft...but the snow here at home is as moisture dense as it gets.  Should add another shot of mixed precip and rain to the snowpack before it gets cold again on Monday evening.

Pure winter in NNE and this has been the best start to the season I can remember...this should just further encase the base.  This snowpack isn't going anywhere.

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Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.34” L.E.

 

For a while, this storm hadn’t been named, but now it’s called Winter Storm Carter.  I was up in the wee hours of the morning and looked outside to see just a few flakes falling, but clearly the snowfall must have cranked up at some point to put down the snow I found on the boards this morning.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.34 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 4.4

Snow Density: 22.7% H2O

Temperature: 34.0 F

Sky: Sleet/Rain

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

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1.8 inches overnight.  32 and drizzle now.

 

Wind is moving the trees for the first time in a week.  So much snow is still on them.  How long till the power goes out?

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The NAM was right here. Started briefly as a few flurries, but it went to sleet once the heavier precipitation arrived from the SW. There's a bit of glaze and the snow from the last storm is finally beginning to fall off the trees as we are now at 32.8° F.

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Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.53” L.E.

 

We had some additional frozen precipitation this morning, but it eventually changed over to all liquid.  The precipitation is expected to change back to snow tomorrow with another few inches possible at elevation and lesser amounts in the valleys.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 2.5

Snow Density: 40.0% H2O

Temperature: 37.4 F

Sky: Light Rain

Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

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Conditions on the mountain are going to be changing to a wetter snow today, but I can pass along a few observations and pictures from yesterday’s Bolton Valley outing.  As of yesterday, the powder had settled even more, continuing the trend I’d seen from Tuesday and Thursday.  It was to the point where you were typically sinking in a few inches at most and riding atop a PNW/Sierra-type snowpack.  In many areas it was certainly challenging to predict the powder density in anticipation of one’s next turn with the variability of wind effects and other settling going on.  I guess we’ll see what the next round of snow brings in terms of powder density, but with the way the powder just kept settling, it did need a bit of a freshening.  One of the more picturesque aspects of yesterday was the hoarfrost sitting on many surfaces.  Some needles were three inches long, so being in the trees surrounded by all that was pretty impressive.  I’ve added a few pictures from yesterday below, and there are some additional shots in my trip report from the day.

01DEC18A.jpg

01DEC18F.jpg

01DEC18D.jpg

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4 hours ago, alex said:

Getting some insane lightning strikes here. Wtf?

We had a clap of thunder around 1ish or so but just the one.  It was a bit surprising.

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12 minutes ago, klw said:

We had a clap of thunder around 1ish or so but just the one.  It was a bit surprising.

It was a full on thunderstorm here. We were actually about to take the kids skiing and it started pouring and we had maybe 10 or so lightning strikes and really  loud thunder. And of course the resort shut down. 

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9 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Baxter State Park Maine goes deep

Well the door there is up a few steps from ground level, and the snow looks to be at least up to the top of the yellow "carry in, carry out" sign. The door knob would be about the height of that yellow sign if it were not for the steps. Standard door knob height is about 40"

That matches our reports from Hermit Lake in the base of Tuckerman Ravine, 45" at 3900 feet.

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I can attest that we got below freezing at my house.  I put one foot on the top step as I was leaving for work and I went down immediately.  After I finally shook that off and salted the stairs, the 1" of snow left on my car from yesterday was solidly welded to the windshield.  It was clear though.  It seemed like the fog level was somewhere between 1100' and 1200'.  

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November totals: 34.3” Snow/8.60” L.E.

The November precipitation numbers from our site were notably above average, and both snowfall and total liquid were tops in their respective categories.  The 8.60” of liquid made November the wettest month of the calendar year so far, and roughly half that liquid (4.07”) came in frozen form.  It’s not too uncommon for us to get 20+ inches of snow in November, which is still within 1 S.D. of the mean, but getting 30+ inches of snow in November is quite unusual.  The stats (at least for my small data set) indicate that reaching this month’s level of snowfall should only happen about once every 50 years.

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It looks like the precipitation changed back to snow at around 7:15 A.M. this morning on the Lincoln Peak Snow Cam, and accumulation has already begun there.  Snow levels are supposed to drop all the way to the valleys later this afternoon as the colder air moves in.  Our point forecast in the valley suggests 2-3” of snow through tomorrow, and the Mansfield point forecast has 3-8” during the period.

Taking a look at the various models and the BTV NWS forecast discussion, it looks like there are three potential snow events to consider over the course of the next several days:

1) Monday-Tuesday with the current system

2) Thursday-Friday with a modified arctic boundary and 5h short wave energy

3) Saturday-Monday with what looks like a possible weak northern stream impulse, or a variation of that if other energy gets involved

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15 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Baxter State Park Maine goes deep

IMG_20181202_190303.jpg

Most anomalous thing about that pic is shadows - have not seen many of those lately.  :lol:

Had 2.0" snow 4-10 AM yesterday, followed by 0.7" cold RA, ending about 8 PM.  Thunder/lightning, none real close, 4:30-5:30 PM, only the 3rd time in 21 Decembers here.

Numbers from a noteworthy November:

Avg. high:  34.7   That's 7.6° BN and coldest Nov. here by 3.6   Mildest was 54 on the 7th, and the 11 on 11/22 obliterated the prior record coldest by 10°.
Avg. low:  21.2   3.5° BN but only 3rd lowest.    11/22 hit -3, and 2nd/7th had mild mins of 40.
Mean:  27.9  5.5° BN and coldest Nov. by 2.3°.
Trivia:  The avg. diurnal range of 13.5 is 2nd lowest  for any month.  The lowest was 12.7 in Dec. 2015.  Thus the 2 smallest diurnal ranges came in the mildest Dec. and coldest Nov.

Precip:  6.89"  2.58" AN and 3rd most for Nov.  Most on one date was 1.27" on the 3rd.
Snow:  23.4"  Nearly 500% of avg and Nov. tops by 6.4"   Had 2 6"+ days, 6.0" on 13th and 6.5" on 27th.

Snowpack reached 14", topping the 11" recorded in Nov. 2014.  The month had 174 SDDs.  The total for all 20 previous years was 194.

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Clouds are dropping along the spine again and I can see that moisture is moving back in based on the regional radar.  The BTV NWS forecast discussion suggests generally a quarter inch of liquid equivalent or less, with the focus in the usual northwest flow upslope areas:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...As the stacked low continues on its northeastward track today, northern portions of the forecast area will see some additional rain showers develop. During the afternoon and into the evening, a cold front will push through, allowing any residual upslope rain showers to transition to light snow. Lack of deep moisture today will limit overall liquid precip accumulations to generally under a quarter inch. Highest QPF will be in typical upslope regions under northwesterly flow (northwestern Adirondacks, northwestern Greens), while the central and southern Champlain Valley and lower elevations of southern Vermont will only pick up a few hundredths of precipitation.

03DEC18A.gif

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I heard 2" this afternoon above 2000-2500ft.  

We now have light snow falling in town so the snow levels are down to the valley floor.

Thanks for the update PF – the precipitation is even snow here in Burlington, so it’s presumably changed over most places now as the winter radar would suggest:

03DEC18C.gif

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25 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

couple of shortwaves rotating through Thurs nite and again sat nite should soften things up a bit, dust on crust in Dec s*cks...

It's funny because there isn't a single person I know disappointed right now...dust on crust or whatever.  Just experienced the best November you'll ever see for cold/snow combo...most of my friends are like "now I can get all the things done that I didn't in November" ha.  The pow will be back.  The snowpack is here for the winter now.

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Pack depth down to around 14-16" after the "torch". High today was 38.5° F and it actually felt a bit warm outside while roof raking the snow late this afternoon. It was good day to roof rake since the snow was soft. 

The snow is pretty much completely gone except for some occasional plow piles down below 1K, patchy from 1K to 1.5K, and solid cover above 1.5K.

Anyway, I'm glad to get the weight of the glaze and heavy, wet snow off the trees as it was causing them to bend and break. 

Maybe I can get a little upslope tonight to freshen the snow cover... 

 

 

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