Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,470
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Greenmachine1123
    Newest Member
    Greenmachine1123
    Joined
WxUSAF

December Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No way to know anything until we get through the next 10 days or so. Didn't like how warm north america was on the EPS. Trop PV pushed all the way over into Siberia leaving north america mild in general everywhere. 

Nothing like 70 degrees and shorts on Xmas... Seems to becoming a more common theme the last few years.... (Last year aside.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, wdavis5784 said:

Nothing like 70 degrees and shorts on Xmas... Seems to becoming a more common theme the last few years.... (Last year aside.)

That was the early call for Thanksgiving...warm...but it was not.  I guess we will see soon enough.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That was the early call for Thanksgiving...warm...but it was not.  I guess we will see soon enough.

Yeah I don't buy it either (they made that prediction even a two week range, didn't they? Lol)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Xmas looks chilly but after might warm up again. 

Good enough.  I mean it’s either white or it’s not.  Temps below 50 are fine.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That was UGLY. Ugh. Hopefully it just injected some bad mojo or something. Definitely not the direction I wanted to see...I wonder if it's not simply following an mjo progression. If we are in phases 6/7 by then that would support an ugly look in a nino. Hopefully we get into phase 8 after that or the wave does allowing typical nino pattern to develop. 

Was just looking at the latest MJO plots...Euro and GFS wants to stall in phase 4 at the end of their runs....  Hoping we get into 5 and just keep moving along or just head into the COD and reemerge into favorable phases.

StqMXYi.png?1

rjFKEAc.gif?1

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Damn, eps looks ugly. Aleutian ridge/goa trough/se ridge setting up. WTH? Is this a nina?

Interesting:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Quote

 

ENSO-neutral continued during November, despite the continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The latest weekly SST indices for all four Niño regions were near +1.0C (Fig. 2). Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) weakened slightly (Fig. 3), but above-average temperatures persist at depth across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). However, the atmospheric anomalies largely reflected intra-seasonal variability related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and have not yet shown a clear coupling to the above-average ocean temperatures.

......

The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, with the expectation that the atmospheric circulation will eventually couple to the anomalous equatorial Pacific warmth. In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and spring (~60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That would be fun.  If only...

Yeah, i'd pay in cold hard cash for even just some mood flakes during Christmas afternoon. To my novice eyes the GFS OP run doesn't look too god awful near hr 240, so hopefully the GEFS run doesn't look too horrible before the Euro Weeklies take us back to the ledge. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...gfs starts building higher heights over Greenland around day 6 and never looks back the remainder of the run...nice blocking 

Saw that. Nice stable closed h5 ridge. That's the one thing that could turn any hostile pac pattern around to serviceable. Maybe the strat will save us for the first time since I joined easternwx in 06.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I don't like seeing things getting pushed back.

I’m hoping for a Christmas miracle. But nino climo suggests mid January through March would be our window! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Huh...wonder if that may be driving the eps ugliness?...

The EPS has been following the mjo around like a puppy for months. If you plot the mjo phase charts next to the EPS like poolz did they are a close match.  The mjo is taking a tour of some ugly phases. 3/4 are warm. 5 is actually chilly in a nino and that is about when the Xmas period cold look hits. Then phase 6/7 are warm and right on schedule we look to warm after. The good news is I highly doubt the mjo continues in warm phases all winter so if that is what's driving this period we should come out of it in January.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I don't like seeing things getting pushed back.

No reason to worry. Weeklies have done terrible beyond week 3. The second half of Dec looked great during most of the Nov weekly runs. I don't doubt the pattern it's showing but it could happen in 2 weeks or not at all. 

I think what we need to see over the next 2-3 weeks is a legit -ao to start showing up. Part of me is starting to expect it.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, psuhoffman said:

lol I'm just doing my thing. I'm not analyzing a day 11 wave on a gfs op run. 

You do a great job. I always look forward to reading your insights and projections.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

You do a great job. I always look forward to reading your insights and projections.

Thank you. I really enjoy the mental exercise this hobby is. Plus this is a fun group!   That wave had been showing up but anywhere from cutting to Erie to an out to sea track. At this range there is no way any model can nail a discreet wave in a progressive pattern. Especially given all the volatility going on in the high latitudes. So analyzing details at range right now is useless. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I don't like seeing things getting pushed back.

But this run didn't push back. It actually sped up the transition by a week. 

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No reason to worry. Weeklies have done terrible beyond week 3. The second half of Dec looked great during most of the Nov weekly runs. I don't doubt the pattern it's showing but it could happen in 2 weeks or not at all. 

I think what we need to see over the next 2-3 weeks is a legit -ao to start showing up. Part of me is starting to expect it.

I was very happy with the run. It sped up the transition some. By Jan 7th the nao starts to tank. By the 14th we are in a very workable look. Epo nao blocking. Avg heights in the east but in mid January that's ok. Then by the 18th on its bombs away...and only looks better to start February. 

My thoughts on all this...I think it's obvious the mjo is the driver right now. We likely see a cold period around Xmas with phase 5. Seems to fit the progression. Then we probably suffer through a warmer period after if we go through 6/7. But then we get into the better phases. Thomas Downs has suggested that the mjo typically fades in mid winter in a nino. So perhaps that is when the nino climo takes over. This also fits with analogs.

As I said in the banter we might have lost our chance at a top 10 type winter like 1964, 2003, 2010...when the November storm was just a bit too early and threat this week missed.  We came out of a pretty awesome pattern period with little to show for it. 

But this progression is following years like 1966, 1978, 1987 very very closely. All 3 started to establish a blocking cold pattern mid January. They all featured some close misses or interior storms in mid January. Then they all featured an epic run after January 20th into February. 

I know waiting sucks but if we are going to get things to line up right having that happen January 20 into February is PERFECT!  As long as we don't see the progression getting pushed back or degraded I am fine with this timing. Maybe we luck into something around Xmas to hold us over. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×