ConvectiveIA Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 This is an evil outcome after the solutions being offered to us for the past few days. I feel burned in DSM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 For now the Euro EPS has the greatest chance at 6+ in an area bounded by IRK-OTM-SQI-BRL. It has some signs of a fairly narrow stripe though, so a lot of bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Noticeable shift north in the 12z GFS. The low treks north of St. Louis. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 I love that GFS run, massive shift north. Unusual as it had been the furthest south model for days. I expected it to remain steadfast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Model chaos ftw. Naturally euro would cave to gfs and get my hopes up and now gfs shifts way north. This is going to be a long few days. When do we get sampling? Hope that helps. Curious to see if Euro holds on 12z run or if it budged north again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, hlcater said: I love that GFS run, massive shift north. Unusual as it had been the furthest south model for days. I expected it to remain steadfast Low takes a Quincy to Peoria to Gary route through IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, hlcater said: I love that GFS run, massive shift north. Unusual as it had been the furthest south model for days. I expected it to remain steadfast Going to be a crapshoot till probably tonight when we start to get some sampling of the pieces in play. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 This is very exciting and edge of seat. Populated areas of Iowa are back in the game! With this new gfs run I now feel confident we will get something here even if it’s just a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Going to be a crapshoot till probably tonight when we start to get some sampling of the pieces in play. Yea. I was almost sure the GFS was too far south and progressive yesterday and was talking with Stebo about it. Then the rest of the guidance joined it 18/00z so I kinda shut up. After every model jumped south, I was starting to think the GFS had the right idea all along. Still plenty of time and the system is not onshore like you mentioned though so another jump south is still well within the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 12z GEM also back a bit farther north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: This is very exciting and edge of seat. Populated areas of Iowa are back in the game! With this new gfs run I now feel confident we will get something here even if it’s just a few inches Wouldn't be getting excited over one run. Lol. Gfs was the most southern outlier for days and now it did a 180 and is the most north with low. I think a track closer to I70 is more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, hlcater said: Yea. I was almost sure the GFS was too far south and progressive yesterday and was talking with Stebo about it. Then the rest of the guidance joined it 18/00z so I kinda shut up. After every model jumped south, I was starting to think the GFS had the right idea all along. Still plenty of time and the system is not onshore like you mentioned though so another jump south is still well within the realm of possibility. Normally I feel the teleconnections play a big factor in these storms and their track, and those definitely favor a southern solution. Good to see some hope for those of us in Central Iowa into Southern Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Wouldn't be getting excited over one run. Lol. Gfs was the most southern outlier for days and now it did a 180 and is the most north with low. I think a track closer to I70 is more likely I think @Stebo eluded to it earlier, not only is strength going to be a factor in terms of low track but so is speed due to the factors in play from the lead waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 12z GFS came back north while its 06z and 00z counterparts look like the 12z NAM along with the 00z Euro so I'm not sure what to think. My preliminary target is still going to be the Quad Cities area for video I think. I'm flexible about heading into Eastern Iowa or staying home in Western IL if the NAM is right. Either way someone is going to receive a serious early season dumping and probably some blizzard conditions. By only concern for the blizzard conditions would be how fast our temperatures fall and we get that drier snow versus the concrete. If most of the snow is heavy and wet that could limit blowing snow potential, but also hugely raises power outage potential with gusts of wind over 45 mph (perhaps even 50 as some models suggest). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Wouldn't be getting excited over one run. Lol. Gfs was the most southern outlier for days and now it did a 180 and is the most north with low. I think a track closer to I70 is more likely Also the GFS hasn't been the most consistent model for the past few days either lol. My friends at KCRG in Cedar Rapids have been complaining about this making for a tough forecast. I don't blame them, with model inconsistency on the GFS its a huge boom or bust potential on their end. Take away the 12z GFS and its pretty clear about the southeast trend. Will have to see what the new Euro says and the 18z GFS. I wouldn't be too concerned yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Hence why I call GFS goofus. If 12z euro takes a big jump north I will be more inclined to believe it. My gut is just saying a track pretty much along I70 and taking a more northerly turn in Indiana. GFS is so north with the low and seems to hook north almost in NW IL. That's a drastic change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, ILwxchr said: Also the GFS hasn't been the most consistent model for the past few days either lol. My friends at KCRG in Cedar Rapids have been complaining about this making for a tough forecast. I don't blame them, with model inconsistency on the GFS its a huge boom or bust potential on their end. Take away the 12z GFS and its pretty clear about the southeast trend. Will have to see what the new Euro says and the 18z GFS. I wouldn't be too concerned yet. 12z GEM also looks similar to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 When does the next euro run start coming out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Yea the 06z and 12z suites have both jumped north from 00z, 12z NAM aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 One notable trend on the GFS is that this is the first run since 21.18z that has a closed 700 mb low. Stronger system overall is more likely to try and cut north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 FV3-GFS also stronger and north, nails corridor through Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: One notable trend on the GFS is that this is the first run since 21.18z that has a closed 700 mb low. Stronger system overall is more likely to try and cut north. Yea that's critical to whether this hooks north quicker vs a more open wave with a more gradual NE turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: One notable trend on the GFS is that this is the first run since 21.18z that has a closed 700 mb low. Stronger system overall is more likely to try and cut north. Yep those are my exact thoughts on why we saw the northward shift. Much stronger mid-latitude cyclone and closed off mid level low versus a more flat wave. Reminding me of Dec 8-9, 2009 albeit quite a bit less intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 I do miss the stagecoach era of a few seasons ago.... Wagons North, looking more likely as the data set increases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: When does the next euro run start coming out? 12pm Central Time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 UK is a slight tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 FV3 was pretty significantly North. The difference in the strength of the final shortwave has been noticeably different with most 12z guidance, where even the GFS now closes off a few height contours at H5. Also pretty large jump jump north with the 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 12Z NAM BUFKIT: Rips Sunday afternoon with 100mb DGZ co-located with strongest omega and low EPV values. Too bad the track is such a mess. Ukie looks good but GEFS mean and many others have shifted northwest. Guess we'll see if euro caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 23, 2018 Share Posted November 23, 2018 Have a feeling euro will cave shouldn't have got my hopes up after 0z runs last night. Looks like 12z runs had a partial sampling. 0z runs should have a full sample. Maybe the wave is going to be stronger than anticipated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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