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November 2018 General Discussion


snowlover2

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It could be wrong but I'm not sold on that cold of a November.  What we're seeing would have to persist through the month.

Every year we have this happen. A very impressive looking bold snap about 7 to 10 days out on the model that eventually happens 20 days later. I would probably pin the latter part of the month as really cold but what is being modelled now will come in much more subdued.

As for the snow system, there is always a potential thread the needle situation, even late in the week would have some flakes flying if current trends hold but the real impressive stuff I'll be skeptical on at this point.

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34 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

FV3 brought back a little something. Passes to our south though.

I feel strangely optimistic about getting some snow out of this, even with the model disagreement.

I concur. I have a question, perhaps you can answer it: What's the relationship/correlation between the GFS and GEFS? I know this is a very basic question, but I've been wanting to ask it for a while because I feel like I'm missing something.

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The very short timing between tonight, Monday, and Thursday's shortwaves has caused havoc in determining the evolution of all three of the systems.  Originally tonight's system was pretty meh, but it turned out to be a fairly potent little system.  The Monday system is a little less intense than what some earlier guidance had shown.  Thursday's system is gonna depend on how Monday's system departs, so we'll probably have to wait a few more days to see how that one will evolve.  At this point I wouldn't be surprised if the Thursday wave completely craps the bed, or becomes a powerful storm storm.  No matter what happens I'm pretty happy, as normally November is a very boring month for tracking pretty much anything.

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6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I concur. I have a question, perhaps you can answer it: What's the relationship/correlation between the GFS and GEFS? I know this is a very basic question, but I've been wanting to ask it for a while because I feel like I'm missing something.

A model expert could give a more technical answer, but basically, it's taking the GFS and perturbing it in a bunch of different ways to give a variety of solutions.  Naturally, the spread in the individual GEFS members will tend to narrow at closer time ranges.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

A model expert could give a more technical answer, but basically, it's taking the GFS and perturbing it in a bunch of different ways to give a variety of solutions.  Naturally, the spread in the individual GEFS members will tend to narrow at closer time ranges.

Thanks a bunch chief, that's what I thought it was, I was just confused about whether the GFS is the original model with no altered parameters or if it's just one of the GEFS ensemble members. Thank you for clarifying :)

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8 hours ago, IllinoisWedges said:

Euro still looks good ;) 

Kind of looks like some of the GFS runs from a few days ago.  It's still there, but definitely not as impressive.  Could it be the Euro is trending towards the GFS?  Doesn't seem to happen very often in the mid range at least. 

New GFS just in says what storm?

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11 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

I concur. I have a question, perhaps you can answer it: What's the relationship/correlation between the GFS and GEFS? I know this is a very basic question, but I've been wanting to ask it for a while because I feel like I'm missing something.

The GEFS, an ensemble model, basically takes the data from the GFS (it's numerical weather model counterpart) and looks at the different uncertainties that can exist in actual weather observations. The GEFS corrects this uncertainty through its multiple ensemble forecasts during each model run (0z, 6z, 12z and 18z) and looks at the different scenarios that could play out from a single forecast. Despite trying to reduce the uncertainty, especially in the medium-long range, there still exists some spread between each run, hence any forecast beyond a certain point should be taken with caution (spread-skill relationship). As well, this spread is actually quite noticeable when you look at spaghetti plots.

This is all I know. 

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22 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

The GEFS, an ensemble model, basically takes the data from the GFS (it's numerical weather model counterpart) and looks at the different uncertainties that can exist in actual weather observations. The GEFS corrects this uncertainty through its multiple ensemble forecasts during each model run (0z, 6z, 12z and 18z) and looks at the different scenarios that could play out from a single forecast. Despite trying to reduce the uncertainty, especially in the medium-long range, there still exists some spread between each run, hence any forecast beyond a certain point should be taken with caution (spread-skill relationship). As well, this spread is actually quite noticeable when you look at spaghetti plots.

This is all I know. 

Thank you very much :)

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1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Making Nov 2-3 1966 freakishly amazing imho. Snow accum's down in Dixie a couple days after Halloween :yikes:

Yeah, underrated storm.  Really quite amazing geographical coverage of snow for that time of year.  

Speaking of that November 1966 storm, that was the last time Chicago had a 1"+ snow in the first 10 days of November (and it was only 1.5" since they were on the western fringe).  Ironically, there have been a couple bigger October snows since then... in 1967 and 1989.  

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Euro continues to trend towards weaker GFS with the Thu wave.  Looks like we may have ourselves a classic November mirage storm lol.  Looks like if anything should come from this wave the eastern sub will have the best shot at it.  Could be an interesting winter if the Euro loses to the GFS in the mid-range on a consistent basis.  

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2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Euro continues to trend towards weaker GFS with the Thu wave.  Looks like we may have ourselves a classic November mirage storm lol.  Looks like if anything should come from this wave the eastern sub will have the best shot at it.  Could be an interesting winter if the Euro loses to the GFS in the mid-range on a consistent basis.  

At first I was like how does he have the Euro, but then I remembered the time change.  Nice benefit as we head toward winter.  :D

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, underrated storm.  Really quite amazing geographical coverage of snow for that time of year.  

Speaking of that November 1966 storm, that was the last time Chicago had a 1"+ snow in the first 10 days of November (and it was only 1.5" since they were on the western fringe).  Ironically, there have been a couple bigger October snows since then... in 1967 and 1989.  

Ahh. I see what you meant now. Around here (South central Mich) that Nov '66 storm unloaded 8-13.5" making it a very tall order to de-throne by anything at or earlier in date-stamp. The closest 1st-half player since was 7" on Nov 13-14th of '72. Looking way back, there was a double digit storm (10.5") on Nov 8-9th of 1915.

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