LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Just now, 495weatherguy said: Thank you for the explanation. I appreciate it you're very welcome, it's just a piece of the puzzle. what SG said is also correct about the AMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 What has caused the warmer SST? Sorry if the question is basic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Warm bias for what? Are you trolling or not even looking at the pattern ahead? And no-I’m not looking at the pattern ahead. While I enjoy meteorology, I’m not in the same league as you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 17 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: What has caused the warmer SST? Sorry if the question is basic Basically a product of the warm AMO. Oddly enough we are near the end of it and some even argue out of it now but the SST peak definitely occurred at the back end of it. We were probably in the meat of the warm AMO from about 2002-2008 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Basically a product of the warm AMO. Oddly enough we are near the end of it and some even argue out of it now but the SST peak definitely occurred at the back end of it. We were probably in the meat of the warm AMO from about 2002-2008 or so Would I be incorrect in interpreting that statement to mean we may be going back to winters of less snow and less severe cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Would I be incorrect in interpreting that statement to mean we may be going back to winters of less snow and less severe cold? Less snow and more cold. I don't know how you think winters have been severe cold in recent memory. Severe cold winters were in the 1970's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Would I be incorrect in interpreting that statement to mean we may be going back to winters of less snow and less severe cold? We should. The cold AMO has correlated to snowier conditions in the mid Atlantic southeast Tennessee valley and southern plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 16 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: And no-I’m not looking at the pattern ahead. While I enjoy meteorology, I’m not in the same league as you The pattern ahead is a good one for the east coast. Blocking is occurring right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Dews starting to plummet, should see a sharp temperature drop after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 1 minute ago, West Mtn NY said: Less snow and more cold. I don't know how you think winters have been severe cold in recent memory. Severe cold winters were in the 1970's Well my memory is not perfect—I remember the 70’s as cold, but unremarkably so. The 80’s were a cakewalk-save for February of 1983. Storms always missed Long Island-you had to go north and west to see appreciable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: Less snow and more cold. I don't know how you think winters have been severe cold in recent memory. Severe cold winters were in the 1970's And the cold recently may not be severe-I’m just getting older Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Just now, 495weatherguy said: Well my memory is not perfect—I remember the 70’s as cold, but unremarkably so. The 80’s were a cakewalk-save for February of 1983. Storms always missed Long Island-you had to go north and west to see appreciable snow. Jan 87 had a big event that crippled parts of NJ, not sure how it played out out your way. And 82 had the Jan storm and the freak April blizzard.Then really nothing special from 88-93. I remember the Newark Star Ledger with a headline in 91, What happened to snowstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Just now, 495weatherguy said: And the cold recently may not be severe-I’m just getting older I think that makes a difference. It got cold in Oct this year and I got up to go fishing a few times and changed my mind. WHen younger I routinely fished most of the winter, of course there were a lot more fish around back then and it didn't cost a fortune. A lot harder to brave the cold at sea when you will drowning bait most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The pattern ahead is a good one for the east coast. Blocking is occurring right now. Bring it. Bought a new craftsman single stage, which should be lighter and easier to move than my big MTD 2 stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Jan 87 had a big event that crippled parts of NJ, not sure how it played out out your way. And 82 had the Jan storm and the freak April blizzard.Then really nothing special from 88-93. I remember the Newark Star Ledger with a headline in 91, What happened to snowstorms? I remember April 82-but it started to melt the very next day. I don’t recall the Jan of 82 storm. I don’t remember anything in 87. Doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. I do remember storms in 77/78, around first week of February that were big on LI-Feb 83 and then really nothing remarkable until 95/96. We were snow deprived. I must’ve missed a lot, but the frequency of 8 plus inch storms has increased a lot in the last 20 years. At least put on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: We should. The cold AMO has correlated to snowier conditions in the mid Atlantic southeast Tennessee valley and southern plains But the 2010s have been even more blocky than the 2000s, and we've seen record levels of blocking in the Pacific now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I remember April 82-but it started to melt the very next day. I don’t recall the Jan of 82 storm. I don’t remember anything in 87. Doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. I do remember storms in 77/78, around first week of February that were big on LI-Feb 83 and then really nothing remarkable until 95/96. We were snow deprived. I must’ve missed a lot, but the frequency of 8 plus inch storms has increased a lot in the last 20 years. At least put on LI It was cold for the entire week in April 1982 and we had a smaller snow event at the end of the week also. The Jan 82 storm caused a plane to go down in the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 23 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: Less snow and more cold. I don't know how you think winters have been severe cold in recent memory. Severe cold winters were in the 1970's I honestly dont think that will happen. It's become far more humid year round than it was and our yearly rainfall averages are higher than they've ever been in recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I honestly dont think that will happen. It's become far more humid year round than it was and our yearly rainfall averages are higher than they've ever been in recorded history. Cold winters like that will probably never happen again. Occasionally we can get highly anomalous cold months (Feb 2015) and even cold winters like 13/14 & 14/15 but those are the exceptions. I think snowfall will average AN for another decade or so, but then the warming climate will quickly overwhelm us and drastically reduce our averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Cold winters like that will probably never happen again. Occasionally we can get highly anomalous cold months (Feb 2015) and even cold winters like 13/14 & 14/15 but those are the exceptions. I think snowfall will average AN for another decade or so, but then the warming climate will quickly overwhelm us and drastically reduce our averages. and rainfall will keep going up. Its already becoming sickeningly humid in the summer with all these 75+ dew points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 8 hours ago, purduewx80 said: the source region for the incoming air mass is not emanating from far eastern canada. I saw a plot on Twitter showing you its origins all the way from Siberia. The backwards trajectory from the NOAA HYSPLIT model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 The roads are full of salt Thanks sanitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The roads are full of salt Thanks sanitation So you're going to complain either way? I'm shocked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It was cold for the entire week in April 1982 and we had a smaller snow event at the end of the week also. The Jan 82 storm caused a plane to go down in the Potomac. I recall the April of 82 storm as being rather extraordinary, in many different ways, but disappearing fast. I don’t recall the Jan of 82 storm as being bad on LI. I could very well be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 82 everything was frozen (winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 probably more salt on the roads now then during the entire snowstorm the other day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 Winds gusting near 30 mph here and temp down to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 11 minutes ago, nycwinter said: probably more salt on the roads now then during the entire snowstorm the other day... Why do you think that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 14 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said: I live .5 miles west of Logan Airport in East Boston. The Logan measurement was what was actually measured and not a typo but it was a joke. I had about 1.5"-2.0" at my place. From what I've been told, the person who does the official measurement for Logan is located in Winthrop, MA which is east of Logan Airport and right on the ocean. They might have in fact on measured 0.1 at their place in Winthrop but areas JUST east of there got a lot more than 0.1" including Downtown Boston. The actual city probably got around 2" while areas a few miles west got a lot more. Unfortunately, as far as records go, it goes down as 0.1" for that storm Seems he'd be skewing the records for his location if he took a measurement from downtown Boston instead because they got more snow. I think your beef is with the location for a record representing Boston, not with the quality of measurement at that location. Downtown Boston gets more snow than Winthrop; most of us understand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 22, 2018 Share Posted November 22, 2018 53 minutes ago, Dan76 said: 82 everything was frozen (winter) I guess I stand corrected. I don’t recall the winter as being cold- clearly my memory is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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