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Solak

Hurricane Michael

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12 minutes ago, Solak said:

This confuses me.

500 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Smithfield
    - Clayton

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph

I don’t get this because everything seems to be going up. 

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

It seems to me that a sub 990 low tracking across central NC produces more wind than currently predicted. 

Especially given the setup.....again this is kind of unprecedented so I am sure the NWS folks are wary of the model output showing a band of intense winds forming, but if they are right then yikes...here are a few HRRR maps and all you folks that live in between these maps the band goes over you too from I 77 to the coast....for the SC people there is almost no where in SC that the HRRR does not have 60+knt gust over....

When the band is forming for you western folks

 gust_t610m_f23.thumb.png.fa163b283c5578347448b791552bc445.png

For the Triangle peeps 

gust_t610m_f27.thumb.png.645078cdfb832b517c527507a9c6483d.png

MBY and eastern NC folks

gust_t610m_f31.thumb.png.3498f6e5b4741198d1e177ad3aaa70ff.png

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Some serious weakening happening right now, via satellite imagery. Hopefully it continues quickly, as the mets are projecting. Obviously, none of the pros are really buying into that intense band on the western side of the storm.

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2 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Some serious weakening happening right now, via satellite imagery. Hopefully it continues quickly, as the mets are projecting. Obviously, none of the pros are really buying into that intense band on the western side of the storm.

It’s been over land for like 4 hours and is still a Cat 2-3! That’s amazing!!

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33 minutes ago, Solak said:

This confuses me.

500 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Smithfield
    - Clayton

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph

GSP had similar wording this morning.  They went into much more detail though that they did it because of the NHC probability cone.  Along with uncertainty in how accurate models were depicting winds though they didn’t think we would actually get TS winds.  Prob a good safe move though now that we are at a warning. 

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I am wondering since the storm is speeding up a lot more than forecasted. Will it stay more on the western side of the NHC cone? Just looking at the HRRR its past the place it first initialized. 

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5 minutes ago, hickory said:

I am wondering since the storm is speeding up a lot more than forecasted. Will it stay more on the western side of the NHC cone? Just looking at the HRRR its past the place it first initialized. 

Its moving a bit more due NE these last several frames so I would expect it to be pretty close to the NHC track from here on out....

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Fishel didn’t say one word about backside winds in the 6 pm segment.

They are really going out of their way to not talk much about the wind potential around here.  Hope they’re right.

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1 hour ago, Solak said:

NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 18s19 seconds ago

 
 

The Tropical Storm Warning has been expanded to include Durham, Franklin, Granville, Halifax, Nash, Vance, Wake, and Warren Counties in Central #NCwx. Remnants from #HurricaneMichael will cross the area on Thursday, spreading heavy rain + damaging winds. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201810102107-KRAH-WTUS82-HLSRAH 

DpLWJQ2WwAE1htx.jpg

Chatham County is not in a TS warning, but Durham County is. (which is NE of Chatham) I have a feeling that TS warnings will be extended towards the NW piedmont by tomorrow anyway which will render this distinction mute. But it still seems a bit odd geographically...

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I have this sinking feeling that the I-85 corridor is going to be for a rough night and day tomorrow. There were never expected to be Tornado warnings as far west as ATL and that precipitation field is a lot farther west than I would of anticipated. Buckle down folks, it’s going to be a rough 24 hours. Stay safe! Snowgoose was definitely on point!

 

 

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5 minutes ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Chatham County is not in a TS warning, but Durham County is. (which is NE of Chatham) I have a feeling that TS warnings will be extended towards the NW piedmont by tomorrow anyway which will render this distinction mute. But it still seems a bit odd geographically...

Yeah, I'm on the hump at the base of the Chatham county pan handle. Sure hope those winds obey that arbitrary set of county lines,lol

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Fishel didn’t say one word about backside winds in the 6 pm segment.

Are you surprised? The NWS is skeptical of it, and honestly we should all at this point....we may not know for sure if it is going to verify until it develops....its a tough thing to forecast a 2 hr window of wind gusting possibly to hurricane force....

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8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Fishel didn’t say one word about backside winds in the 6 pm segment.

They are really going out of their way to not talk much about the wind potential around here.  Hope they’re right.

When they go out of their way to not discuss it it’s because they don’t know and that is not great. We will see. 

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The main forum thread is ugh.....I am glad for the most part the folks in this sub forum are smart enough to avoid most of that crap....

1 minute ago, Regan said:

Wral is sticking to the 20-30 sustained and 40-60gusting and avoiding too much detail. 

This is a smart move for now....and it better than what they had yesterday lol...

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1 minute ago, Regan said:

Wral is sticking to the 20-30 sustained and 40-60gusting and avoiding too much detail. 

I agree with downeast on this. If someone had proposed last week that we would be debating the prospect of TS winds in the Triangle from a storm that had traversed that much real estate we would have been shut down as weenies pretty quick.

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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The main forum thread is ugh.....I am glad for the most part the folks in this sub forum are smart enough to avoid most of that crap....

This is a smart move for now....and it better than what they had yesterday lol...

20 to 30 sustained will cause issues

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I think what Wral is suggesting is a good start and can cause enough damage. Yes we could get more. Michael isn’t playing by the rules, but I just hope people take it seriously. 

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7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The main forum thread is ugh.....I am glad for the most part the folks in this sub forum are smart enough to avoid most of that crap....

 

I think it came ashore as a Cat 1 and that's being generous :)

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1 minute ago, frazdaddy said:

20 to 30 sustained will cause issues

Sure, even if the backside band doesnt pan out or its not as strong there is still going to be a fair amount of 40-50 mph gust around and that will knock some power out, the band the models have though of a continuous 2 hr long band of winds gusting 60-80 mph crossing basically the entire state is nuts....thats part of the reason the NWS etc is skeptical of it...again the word unprecedented would fit.....problem is we have a unprecedented Cat 4/5 storm quickly moving into the area...if it happens exactly like the hi res models show then at least its gonna be cooler after the storm so all the folks without power wont have to suffer in the heat. 

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Channel 2 here from what I heard was talking about gusts above 40 / sustained in the mid 30s at 6. They kind of left things open ended like the local weather office did earlier.

Schools are cancelled tomorrow but day care is still open so long as the bridges are. I'd rather watch from home but the windows at work give a pretty good view of some tall, spindly trees on adjacent airport property. I don't think very much work will get done tomorrow.

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I get the reasons not to buy it hook line and sinker.  It would be nice to at least have someone acknowledge the possibility of it. It would be one thing if it were only the 84 hr NAM showing it, along with 25” of snow.  But you have a lot of support, at least right now, for a line of strong winds moving through after the storm.

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

I get the reasons not to buy it hook line and sinker.  It would be nice to at least have someone acknowledge the possibility of it. It would be one thing if it were only the 84 hr NAM showing it, along with 25” of snow.

RAH did in their afternoon disco, they will probably pull the trigger on wording talking about it if the 00Z hold on to the west side band of intense winds....waiting for it will be worse than waiting for those wintertime rotting snow "deform" band to rotate through. 

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8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I get the reasons not to buy it hook line and sinker.  It would be nice to at least have someone acknowledge the possibility of it. It would be one thing if it were only the 84 hr NAM showing it, along with 25” of snow.

I completely agree.  I have literally storm/snow seen Fishel and crew forecasting. Going slowly over the details. Except when it comes to wind/ or inches with snow, the speed up really fast to hurry through it. It’s a clear sign they don’t know. But I wish they’d lay out the possiblities. I’m expecting the minimum of 20/30 sustained and 40-50 or even more long gusts. But I worry about the people uninformed or ones that just hear it as nothing. I hope it’s not over 50 gust in Raleigh. That’s bad enough. Especially long ones 

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24 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

I agree with downeast on this. If someone had proposed last week that we would be debating the prospect of TS winds in the Triangle from a storm that had traversed that much real estate we would have been shut down as weenies pretty quick.

Agreed. A gulf landfalling storm potentially causing TS winds around these parts is a scenario I never even thought of. Whatever happens, we'll likely remember tracking this one for a looong time.

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