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Tyler Penland

2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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32 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:
1 hour ago, SnoJoe said:
To your point Ashe, I guess these are a few things we need to keep an eye on. I've seen all of these happen and sometimes all at the same time. From Ray.....
Caveats....
Factors that would limit snow totals: 1) latest computer guidance limits precipitation on the northern edge of the system, 2) relatively warm temperatures aloft have me nervous (mixing with sleet or freezing rain would greatly limit totals). 3) "Convective robbing" where thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast limit the transport of moisture northward can often be a factor in a system like this. 
 

Models swing and miss on northern edge precip a lot. Obviously the SW mountains will be in a better spot but I'm guessing we do just fine.

But we will be fighting the warm nose for most of the event.

 

We will be over 100 inches of rain after this storm.

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Just now, franklin NCwx said:

But we will be fighting the warm nose for most of the event.

 

We will be over 100 inches of rain after this storm.

I’m starting to think with the ensembles and the trends on the nam I feel like we can score a solid 8-12

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Just now, Sw NC weather said:

I’m starting to think with the ensembles and the trends on the nam I feel like we can score a solid 8-12

That would be great! I would be very happy with that. 

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My biggest question at this point is do I have enough room to pack the old Flexible Flyer in the car? I am very excited for this snowventure to begin! And for me, that happens in about an hour when I aim the car northward towards Lake Lure. Woohoo, we're about to have some fun ya'll!

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6 minutes ago, MaggyNoLia said:

My biggest question at this point is do I have enough room to pack the old Flexible Flyer in the car? I am very excited for this snowventure to begin! And for me, that happens in about an hour when I aim the car northward towards Lake Lure. Woohoo, we're about to have some fun ya'll!

Nice! Safe travels. 

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Just now, Bamabuilder86 said:

I’ll be heading to the cabin rental on black mountain in a few hours. Super pumped. My wife has never seen more than 2 inches with the exception of our ski trips out west. 

Enjoy the show!  I was thinking of heading to my sister's place in Cashiers tonight, but I have to be at work on Monday so I can't get stranded :)

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2 minutes ago, Bamabuilder86 said:

I’ll be heading to the cabin rental on black mountain in a few hours. Super pumped. My wife has never seen more than 2 inches with the exception of our ski trips out west. 

Wow she is in for a treat. Snow in the mountains is special especially a big one like this.

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Really getting worried about this southern trend. A few more jogs south and the northern mountains totals really go down. The press of the cold, dry air is really pushing the heavier precip south. 

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Just now, NC_WX10 said:

Really getting worried about this southern trend. A few more jogs south and the northern mountains totals really go down. The press of the cold, dry air is really pushing the heavier precip south. 

Looks like we're getting screwed here in Roanoke LOL.  At least Boone has a better chance of getting a decent snowfall.

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8 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

Really getting worried about this southern trend. A few more jogs south and the northern mountains totals really go down. The press of the cold, dry air is really pushing the heavier precip south. 

GFS looks good for the northern mtns. I think in general, all of WNC will do great.

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1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

GFS looks good for the northern mtns. I think in general, all of WNC will do great.

My same sentiments.  I think most of WNC is looking great. This is looking like a great storm for sure. The good snowman making kind.

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6 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

My same sentiments.  I think most of WNC is looking great. This is looking like a great storm for sure. The good snowman making kind.

Exactly. It's getting tough to track in the main threads. It's either too far north for some folks, too far south for others, too warm for many, then I realize it's just right for WNC. Lol.

I think I'll just hang out here and see what HT has to say.

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I think the only thing to watch out for is some mid level warming like shown in the RGEM ( a pretty good short range model) Otherwise you look golden to me 

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12 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Exactly. It's getting tough to track in the main threads. It's either too far north for some folks, too far south for others, too warm for many, then I realize it's just right for WNC. Lol.

I think I'll just hang out here and see what HT has to say.

Yeah everyone is excited or nervous.  Not us. We will get ours. Damn its good to be back!

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2 minutes ago, The Alchemist said:

Am I correct in thinking that with the upslope effect and the storm possibly tracking a little to the south that Saluda/Flat Rock/ Hendersonville might be the sweet spot?


.

Oh yea, that area will do really good.

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2 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

Anyone thinking we could see blizzard warnings go up for some? 

You know I'm not sure if we will get the wind and the heavy snow long enough for a blizzard verification but I do think we will see blizzard conditions intermittently. 

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