• Member Statistics

    15,924
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Zauggerr
    Newest Member
    Zauggerr
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
stormtracker

Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

Recommended Posts

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 76.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Don't understand why it's a 1 now despite the ever improving radar presentation

Anyhow, sounds bad on New Bern public safety scanner rescues in progress and structures down apparently.

Truthfully, they're being generous. It is more likely to have sustained winds of 80-85 MPH based on the SFMR data from this last recon flight. Despite a mid 950s MB pressure the wind field so broad/diffuse that there isn't enough of a gradient to get higher winds. The system certainly does have a higher gust component than some other canes we've tracked. 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Don't understand why it's a 1 now despite the ever improving radar presentation

Anyhow, sounds bad on New Bern public safety scanner rescues in progress and structures down apparently.

From 11 pm discussion

 

Radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
flight indicate that Florence has an inner eye that is open on the
east side, and a secondary wind maximum that has already begun to
spread inland across southeastern North Carolina.  The highest
flight-level wind (102 kt) was actually measured within the outer
band that is moving onshore in the Wilmington area.  However, the
highest SFMR-measured wind was 73 kt, and the highest land
observation so far was a sustained wind of 72 kt at Cape Lookout,
North Carolina.  On top of that, NOAA Doppler radar velocities have
been running around 100 kt at about 5,000 feet.  All of these data
support reducing the initial intensity to 80 kt, but based on the
higher flight-level winds, the gust factor is being set a little
higher than is typical for an 80-kt hurricane.
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

From 11 pm discussion

 

Radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
flight indicate that Florence has an inner eye that is open on the
east side, and a secondary wind maximum that has already begun to
spread inland across southeastern North Carolina.  The highest
flight-level wind (102 kt) was actually measured within the outer
band that is moving onshore in the Wilmington area.  However, the
highest SFMR-measured wind was 73 kt, and the highest land
observation so far was a sustained wind of 72 kt at Cape Lookout,
North Carolina.  On top of that, NOAA Doppler radar velocities have
been running around 100 kt at about 5,000 feet.  All of these data
support reducing the initial intensity to 80 kt, but based on the
higher flight-level winds, the gust factor is being set a little
higher than is typical for an 80-kt hurricane.

Ah okay that explains it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Crazy it may be down to min 1 by landfall.

It would be kind of weird if the landfall wind speed ends up being less than the maximum sustained wind that has already been observed (82 mph Cape Lookout), but I guess that can happen in situations like this with a prolonged slowdown near a coast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The convection to the NW side of the center is crazy now.  Really blowing up.  For a Category 1 storm, this thing is packing quite a punch.  I think it's what they said - it's distributing its energy in different ways rather than increasing winds.  It's telling that the pressure hasn't dropped at all in a while.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Going to be a dark weekend in Jacksonville, are you supplied by Duke?

Jones onslow haha and man even though its a cat one these winds are so strong right now, you step outside and all you can smell is fresh pine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As it moves further inland you also have more deciduous trees or evergreens than at the coast where there are lots of palms.  Those will easily go down with 60-70mph winds and saturated ground.  A cat 1 in NC does alot more damage in NC than it does in Florida because mostly palms there

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As it moves further inland you also have more deciduous trees or evergreens than at the coast where there are lots of palms.  Those will easily go down with 60-70mph winds and saturated ground.  A cat 1 in NC does alot more damage in NC than it does in Florida because mostly palms there

Yes. Our ground here in east NC is over saturated. My main concern is the tree damage to property and electrical grid in rural counties

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, AJF0602 said:

Jones onslow haha and man even though its a cat one these winds are so strong right now, you step outside and all you can smell is fresh pine.

Let’s be honest, sub 960 on a Cat 1 is BS.  Not sure when the NHC will get the impact equation right but ~1 minute sustained is not the answer as you are currently witness to.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

NC coast is in for a very rough day ahead, just unreal the beating it is taking from this west outer eyewall.

The aftermath in coastal communities will be met with "but, but it was only a Cat 1 when it came ashore".

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well , can’t add attachments via mobile I guess? But yea..

 

saw a a few frames of -80° C cloud tops over top of those hot towers. Pretty impressive, and not good news for the coast. Largest burst of cold tops in terms of coverage so far today. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I mean c'mon this is serious business.

 

Tornado Watch

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2018

TORNADO WATCH 372 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EDT FOR THE
 FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC013-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-133-137-147-177-187-
141100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0372.180914T0100Z-180914T1100Z/

NC
.    NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEAUFORT             CARTERET            CRAVEN
DARE                 DUPLIN              GREENE
HYDE                 JONES               LENOIR
MARTIN               ONSLOW              PAMLICO
PITT                 TYRRELL             WASHINGTON

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

I am stunned looking at IR images, just exploding on West edge. Seriously highest we have seen today pretty much.

You can see how little the IR corresponds to the radar. one little convective dot in the eyewall on the radar and the IR lights up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.