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NCSNOW

Hurricane Florence

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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 25.4N  61.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 26.0N  63.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 27.0N  66.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 28.6N  69.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 30.4N  72.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 33.7N  77.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 35.6N  78.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  15/1800Z 36.5N  79.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Yep and with it slowing the east flow over the sounds will just lock in and not allow it to recede.....the river here will run backwards and then the rain runoff will try to go downstream and meet the surge tide and it will just be a mess.......until the surge runs out the rivers cant drain.

I’m very concerned. I have family in Charleston, and also sunset beach, NC. The ones in sunset beach don’t live in the barrier island, but they are maybe less than a mile from the sound. 

 

I know track is key. If it hits north of them, they are probably ok. If it hits near the nc/sc border, the ones in sunset beach are frankly screwed, and I doubt they will evacuate. 

 

 

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Another interesting fact pointed out by the NHC. Also has to do with the destructive potential of this storm. The fact that it has doubled in size in the last 12 hours.  Edit: That was actually the extent of the hurricane force winds.

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8 minutes ago, Solak said:

Good answer, Downeast. I'm sure you've seen that from previous storms. I've seen it to some extent when I lived in KDH and had the sounds back up, then have to deal with the return flow with the backside winds.

Yeah the river 3/4 of a mile from my house has 6 ft if surge on it on the surge map with a Cat 4 lol, luckily this is the high side and we don't flood.....this is 20 miles up the river from Washington even.

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1 minute ago, ncskywarn said:

Another interesting fact pointed out by the NHC. Also has to do with the destructive potential of this storm. The fact that it has doubled in size in the last 12 hours.

what is alarming is Florence hasn't even moved into the most favorable conditions yet

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16 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

what is alarming is Florence hasn't even moved into the most favorable conditions yet

If we are lucky she will go through an ERC while passing over the warmest water.

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Another thing to consider is that Flo will most likely be a steady state hurricane with massive CDO/eyewall. The timing of the ERC's could very well be the difference between a Cat 3 or 4....its not your typical sloppy 3/4 eye while the storm is shearing out cane we typically see...this means it will be able to hold up better when in comes inland and potentially bring some 100-120 mph wind gust pretty far inland, like RDU far....certainly farther than any storm since Hazel....especially along and north and east of center. Add the strong ridge building back in the north and there could be winds gusting 40-50 over eastern NC for a couple of days...

This is practically the worst case scenario cane for east central NC.... its one I honestly never thought I would actually see play out.....hopefully I still don't.

 

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Another thing to consider is that Flo will most likely be a steady state hurricane with massive CDO/eyewall. The timing of the ERC's could very well be the difference between a Cat 3 or 4....its not your typical sloppy 3/4 eye while the storm is shearing out cane we typically see...this means it will be able to hold up better when in comes inland and potentially bring some 100-120 mph wind gust pretty far inland, like RDU far....certainly farther than any storm since Hazel....especially along and north and east of center. Add the strong ridge building back in the north and there could be winds gusting 40-50 over eastern NC for a couple of days...

This is practically the worst case scenario cane for east central NC.... its one I honestly never thought I would actually see play out.....hopefully I still don't.

 

This will be a storm people remember for ever i'm afraid. With the coast being more populated than in the past with other storms. the chance of seeing bigger destruction than the storms of the past is pretty high.

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Well, the GFS is consistent even though many here think it is in left field with its track,  At 84hrs, it is near Cape

Hatteras and 1mb higher with its barometric pressure.  It is a smidgen south and west of its previous run.  It would

be a blessing for interior NC but catastrophic for the Outer Banks and NC coast if it even comes close to verifying.

Quote

 

 

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Well step 1 prep is complete: fired up the 18 year old powerboss 5500 and it fired on the second pull. Haven't yanked it in several years. Deal I made 18 years ago gets cheaper every big wx event. Anyway I'll hold off on step 2 till tommorow afternoon or Wednesday, Gas and propane gas for Grill. 

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Our local WYFF guys are wondering if the disturbance just west of Key West might be enough to push Florence a little more east and north. That disturbance is moving north. They are not saying it will have an impact. They are only saying it’s something to keep an eye on. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherbubba said:

Well, the GFS is consistent even though many here think it is in left field with its track,  At 84hrs, it is near Cape

Hatteras and 1mb higher with its barometric pressure.  It is a smidgen south and west of its previous run.  It would

be a blessing for interior NC but catastrophic for the Outer Banks and NC coast if it even comes close to verifying.

 

The FV3 version of the GFS is doing much better I think at least as far as being closer to the other models......the GFS is latched on to that stall off Hattersa then loop back in scenario....it will come around tomorrow......

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I don't get the back and forth with it having tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds farther inland. The last update had hurricane forcewinds inland, and now it is back to tropical storm force. Everything I have seen today has said Flo is getting stronger, and could be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall. That to me says the hurricane force winds should be farther inland once it comes in. Very confusing.

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6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I don't get the back and forth with it having tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds farther inland. The last update had hurricane forcewinds inland, and now it is back to tropical storm force. Everything I have seen today has said Flo is getting stronger, and could be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall. That to me says the hurricane force winds should be farther inland once it comes in. Very confusing.

the update just shows a spot measurement at certain amounts of time from the update time.  This isn't a prediction of how far inland it will stay hurricane. Take a look at the time labels between the updates.

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5 minutes ago, sai1b0ats said:

the update just shows a spot measurement at certain amounts of time from the update time.  This isn't a prediction of how far inland it will stay hurricane. Take a look at the time labels between the updates.

I know, but they were both labeled 2 pm Friday. The last update had it as a hurricane then, and this one is back to a tropical storm. I guess they are back to thinking it will downgrade faster once it comes inland. 

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13 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I don't get the back and forth with it having tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds farther inland. The last update had hurricane forcewinds inland, and now it is back to tropical storm force. Everything I have seen today has said Flo is getting stronger, and could be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall. That to me says the hurricane force winds should be farther inland once it comes in. Very confusing.

What back and forth......the updates don't include where the extent of hurricane and TS force winds are....the storm will weaken, so that the Friday plot shows TS over RDU.....but it will be a major cane still over interior NC and depending on the wind field ( which will be large ) there could easily be strong winds well inland....I would think gust to hurricane force in the Triangle is probably likely maybe even significant hurricane gust especially on the east side...... which to me is 90+ mph, once the winds get 90-100+ its more than just trees coming down.... 

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Brick, they were saying it'll move less than 5 mph so I guess it will drain her faster than if she was moving faster.  I think i saw 60mph winds for here, but I do not know what we will have sustained and what we will have gust wise.  Anyone?

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6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I know, but they were both labeled 2 pm Friday. The last update had it as a hurricane then, and this one is back to a tropical storm. I guess they are back to thinking it will downgrade faster once it comes inland. 

If the storm is moving faster or slower, that will affect its status as of 2 PM on Friday.

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Not saying it's impossible. But honestly as someone pointed out on the other thread. The way the GFS has been looping Florence around it almost leads me to believe it may ultimately trend the direction of the Euro. Just in a different way because I don't think the ridge would allow it to get that far North just sit there then push it back Southwest in the long run. Instead of pushing it more West to begin with like the Euro shows.

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weather.us shows basically the same numbers, even higher as we get into Friday afternoon. I really hope it heads further south, or keeps inching eastward and we can stay on the western side of things.

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58 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The FV3 version of the GFS is doing much better I think at least as far as being closer to the other models......the GFS is latched on to that stall off Hattersa then loop back in scenario....it will come around tomorrow......

That FV3 version of the GFS does have what appears to be a more realistic track than the GFS model.  The barometric

pressures are like night and day compared to the GFS.  I think that might be on the right trail when all is said and done.

We'll have to see if the eastward movement on the last Euro run continues.  If it does, we might have something here.

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