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Tropical Storm Chris

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A disturbance and surface low are beginning to organize quickly now.  Low-level spiral bands are developing on the southwest and southeast quadrants as well as surface convergence developing in the Cu field developing on the northwest quadrant as well.  Convection is not too organized currently as dry air is having an impact, but two of the more reliable global models show this system developing as strong as a hurricane with the HWRF model showing category three status just southeast of Wilmington, NC by hour 120.  Anywhere from SC northward along the East Coast is at threat currently from this system if it develops.  A cold front could save us in the near term, but it appears the low will stall off the NC coastline and then ramp up after day 4, into a fierce hurricane.

7/8/2018 12:50 pm EDT, update:  Tropical Storm Chris is becoming more of a threat to become a major hurricane that can impact the East Coast in some form.  He is currently a tropical storm with an hurricane hunter aircraft USAF plane heading into the storm.

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Going to be TD #3 at 5pm......

NHC will initiate advisories at 5 PM EDT on Tropical Depression Three located a couple hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast.

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7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Going to be TD #3 at 5pm......

NHC will initiate advisories at 5 PM EDT on Tropical Depression Three located a couple hundred miles southeast of the North Carolina coast.

Wow this is a busy beginning to July

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Two hurricanes within a week for the Atlantic in the month of July isn't too shabby. We probably have TS Chris by midday on Sunday. Though banding looks good right now, convection is still spotty and broken in clusters about the COC. Depending on how fast a core can establish and consolidate, there should be just enough upper support in the short term that Chris could have a burst of intensification on Monday. Not calling for a MH by any means, but a hurricane with a visible eye, perhaps even a lower end Category 2 hurricane with a little symmetry is certainly possible before this gets kicked out and blasted NE and into the maritimes.

 

 

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There's no good path for to make landfall in New England. There's a really nice +3STDEV blocking ridge over the Grand Banks, but the capturing trough is coming out of NE Canada. It's not over the midwest or wherever you might want it. 

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Tropical Storm Chris is organizing rapidly now and is completely underneath the most intense convection of the storm.  Banding is developing and outflow is improving where wind shear had previously inhibited it in the past.  Cirrus is fanning outward in all quadrants will significant inflow band on the east and south semicircles.  I would the hurricane hunters about to investigate will show a 60-70mph tropical storm with a warm core and eye wall forming.

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Though convection is improving and more consolidated near the LLC, there is clearly still moderate westerly shear and more stable airmass impeding the western semicircle of the circulation. Though this should relax over the next 24 hrs, I don't expect the window for significant strengthening to open for Chris until Monday evening into Tuesday. The LLC to MLC looks tilted west to east on visible. Perhaps we have slow strengthening through tomorrow and more moderate strengthening into Tuesday. All said, this has a very good chance of reaching hurricane intensity and its maximum potential will be timely based on how fast the core intensifies by the time southwesterly mid-level flow kicks in on Wed-Thurs and how aligned surface flow is so the system doesn't get sheared off.

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7 minutes ago, Amped said:

960mb on the Euro at 96hrs, most impressive run so far.

There is a little piece of energy over N MD at 96. Get that to dig south and you could conceivably Sandy it into our shore.

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960mb on the Euro at 96hrs, most impressive run so far.
That would be great timing for significant strengthening just as the SW steering flow kicks in. Mid-level flow looks aligned with surface flow. That would open the door for Chris to flirt with MH status as it is gaining NE forward motion.2963f47a033bc4b607d2782582ee4297.gif

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2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

There is a little piece of energy over N MD at 96. Get that to dig south and you could conceivably Sandy it into our shore.

Sandy had a huge troff in the middle of the country and a monster block over E Canada. Really not comparable to this pattern which is a lot less amplified with the troff further east.

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Just now, Amped said:

Sandy had a huge troff in the middle of the country and a monster block over E Canada. Really not comparable to this pattern which is a lot less amplified with the troff further east.

Canadian ensemble is of considerable interest hinting at many possibilities. Also notice how wide the NHC forecast cone is.

gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

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Latest recon shows the center reformed to the ESE under the convection.  Full Weenie mode by tonight.

 

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50 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Canadian ensemble is of considerable interest hinting at many possibilities. Also notice how wide the NHC forecast cone is.

gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

the NHC cone size is based on the last 5 years of mean average error, and it has nothing to do with model spread for a particular storm. 

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Dhm_qF6U8AAA24t.jpg

Much better organized, and TS Chris has shedded its earlier garbage that was attached to it. Still a bit lopsided with some dry air, however easier to extrapolate/track movement now.

Looking like it will make a run at hurricane intensity as it further builds a better core.

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20180708.1701.gcomw1.x.color36.03LCHRIS.

Caught the center jump.  You can see there is a ring around the new center which is good for intensification. 

  Environmental pressure is rather high, interesting to see if it can get to CAT 1 with a pressure >995mb. It should be close to that on the next recon.

 

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HXDlUC.jpg

 

Couple features here. The increasing organization of the convection, but also some dry air from the strong canadian cold front being dragged into the circulation. Dry air should weaken once the cold front does. Overall minus the dry air, the system looks pretty healthy. Has yet to develop an eye.

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3 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Will be watching this one closely up here. Should make a swipe at me. Something to track atleast. I’m liking the start of this season already.

Good call, what's the worst tropical storm you've seen up that way?

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I wouldn't rule out a low end Cat 3. 

MH status is certainly possible. The ESE jog/relocation this morning certainly helps in the short term even with slow development. Places the LLC just enough SE from the stronger shear axis so it isn't as tilted for the MLC. With persistent convection over night into Monday nearto the LLC, this just gives it a head start when the environment becomes more favorable by Monday evening. I'm starting to lean more in favor of Chris reaching Cat 3 intensity than it merely maxing out as a Category 1. But Cat 2 is still the most likely for now. As always, intensity forecasts are difficult when you only have a 48-72 hr window and small geographic location for significant intensification. Positioning is critical. But if the core is consolidated and an eyewall is trying to form during the day on Monday, there's no reason it can't milk the environment for all it's worth on Tuesday and Wednesday as it lifts northeast. The ECMWF OP is also eye-opening (excuse the pun) and shows a very favorable environment between 48 and 96 hrs for a NE moving storm along and across the Gulf Stream.
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