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snowlover2

March 20-21 Potential Snow Event

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2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Is the NAM pretty good in this range ?

When its right ;)  I think I mentioned to you at the beginning of the winter that 50 miles or so N of I-70 will make you nuts watching models.  Don't judge the area by 1 season, we've had some big dogs in the past.  Granted the last 4 or 5 years have sucked, haven't made it to 50% or so of the seasonal average.  The rubberband will snap eventually.  I'm with you and most of the board though, this 35-40, rain and wind in March just blows almost as much as brown and 10 below in January.   The nice thing about GA is yeah you might get a warning snow come through every now and then but the respite is some nice weeks in between climo wise.  Not gonna get that up here riding the line lol.  It is what it is, never know this time of year.  Could get a Gomer :pimp:   

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1 minute ago, dilly84 said:

Big bust coming. 12z-18z 13-19" 0z nam on the verge of very little. Lol

That’s just unreal. Why even be a model? I don’t get it. 

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The models are going to be all over the place in regards to snow placement with each run. It's the nature of the setup. At this point, it would be more alarming if there were no high totals in OH/IN, I'm not too focused on the exact location yet.

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The 0z models in general have a little less moisture this far west, possibly due to the lead wave really going to town on the east coast.  A few inches still looks good for parts of OH and extreme eastern IN but odds of 6”+ jackpots have diminished. 

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2 hours ago, OHweather said:

The 0z models in general have a little less moisture this far west, possibly due to the lead wave really going to town on the east coast.  A few inches still looks good for parts of OH and extreme eastern IN but odds of 6”+ jackpots have diminished. 

I doubt it, just typical upper level disorganization and confusion. The low on the east coast was actually less impressive in general than on some of the earlier NAM runs. If it goes weaker, it goes weaker everywhere.

The HRRR is already backing the NAM on eastern indiana into western ohio being the where the heavy band is going to setup. Quite a west shift.

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So we don't get so much snow. It could always be worse. Forecast for near Mammoth Lakes California:

 

Today
A 50 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Very windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 35 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow. High near 28. Very windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph increasing to 50 to 55 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow. Low around 23. Very windy, with a southwest wind around 55 mph, with gusts as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 28 to 34 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow. High near 26. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 65 to 70 mph decreasing to 55 to 60 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow showers. Low around 14. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

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22 minutes ago, sojitodd said:

So we don't get so much snow. It could always be worse. Forecast for near Mammoth Lakes California:

 

Today
A 50 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Very windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 35 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow. High near 28. Very windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph increasing to 50 to 55 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow. Low around 23. Very windy, with a southwest wind around 55 mph, with gusts as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 28 to 34 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow. High near 26. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 65 to 70 mph decreasing to 55 to 60 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow showers. Low around 14. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

5-7 feet of snow (yes, I did the math) with 100 mph winds? That's some serious drifting. I'd take it any day...  

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12 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Sure is a sharp gradient between Indy and Dayton

Indy and Dayton?  My P&C says a dusting at best, 20 miles East 2-4 lol!

Edit:  If the latest HRRR trends are to be believed you could hit the jackpot ;)

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9 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

I doubt it, just typical upper level disorganization and confusion. The low on the east coast was actually less impressive in general than on some of the earlier NAM runs. If it goes weaker, it goes weaker everywhere.

The HRRR is already backing the NAM on eastern indiana into western ohio being the where the heavy band is going to setup. Quite a west shift.

Yeah, definite shift west on the Ohio Valley low.  Brings a dry slot into more of east-central OH where many models had a good band yesterday.  The HRRR and NAM3 almost hint at a mini TROWAL feeding into the west side of the storm, if that occurs that may be where some spots can still top 6”. 

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24 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Starting to become a nice little system if we can cool off enough for it to be all snow. buckeye is right, this starting at night is crucial.

I think buckeye me and many others may get the shaft. 

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27 minutes ago, Sidewinder said:

Snowing nicely here with accumulation on grassy areas only. We are many hours ahead of schedule with no rain, good odds of over-performing. 

Nice to see its sticking with 2m temps around 40

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Here's my final bid on this...do suspect there will be some unforeseen screw holes, but am hoping they're few and far enough in between...

The low is expected to be a little farther west than was thought yesterday, which brings marginal temps and a dry slot farther in from the south/east into south-central, southeastern, and east-central Ohio for a good chunk of time this evening into the night.  This really eats into the area I thought would see the best snow in east-central Ohio yesterday, and that represents the largest change from yesterday's forecast.  There may be a sharper cutoff from good snows just west of Columbus to dry slot and only an inch or two farther east than expected, which is one area that may end up getting shafted compared to this map depending on how quickly the dry slot fills after midnight. 

Within the broad band of light snow expected to develop from southwestern and west-central to central, north-central, and northeastern Ohio by late this evening there will be a couple of areas to watch for better snows.  The first will be across parts of west-central Ohio where a TROWAL will advect into the shield of snow for several hours this evening.  The better moisture/lift and instability with this feature should cause a period of moderate snow where it hits the deformation/cold conveyor belt snow.  Forecast soundings show decent lift within the DGZ, so once it cools enough for snow and accumulates ratios may actually be higher than 10:1.  With a good upslope flow into the higher terrain in west-central OH potentially aligning with the better snow, along with slightly colder temps in the higher elevations, think that if any area sees a number of 6"+ reports it's there...so did highlight that with 5-7" within the larger 3-6" area. 

The other area to watch will be across the northern portions of the shield of precip, where some modest low to mid-level fgen is likely to squeeze out a band of snow that's at times moderate.  This area also shows decent lift in the DGZ on soundings from the NAM, GFS, and RAP, so again once it starts snowing and sticking ratios may actually give a bit of a boost.  There are still hints that an area of higher theta-e air in the low and mid-levels will advect into this area of fgen early Wednesday in extreme eastern Ohio and get pinched off, possibly causing a few hours of better snow.  Because of this, did keep a 3-6" area in extreme east-central Ohio, though that's not the highest of confidence.  

Suspect there will be some areas that don't do great between the better snow from the TROWAL in west-central OH and better snow from the fgen in northern OH, but its kind of hard to guess where.  Areas between the better lift will still see several hours of snow, so I'm still hoping they can see 3-4" of snow...but suspect some spots won't quite get there.  Did go conservative on the northern edge in NE OH downwind of the higher terrain, due to already dry NE winds downsloping off of the higher terrain in the Snowbelt into the east side of Cleveland and areas NE of Akron. 

Think south-central and SE Ohio see an inch or so late tonight into early Wednesday as the CCB/deform snow collapses SE as the low fills and jumps to the East Coast.  With marginal temps, mainly light rates, and shorter duration am not expecting more than an inch, maybe two inches on the hilltops, in this portion of Ohio. 

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11 minutes ago, Steve said:

The way the radar looks... could we be in the dry slot screw zone... would not surprise me...

Yep. Dryslot goes right above my location to snow.

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