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March 20-21 Potential Snow Event


snowlover2

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11 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Well this is getting a little more interesting.  5 models now giving east central IN 2-8 inches inside 60 hours depending on the model.  Be nice to get the first warning criteria snow to bookend the winter of the WWA, but not banking on it :weenie:

All models sans the cmc (can't see euro) showing 6-8 across Central Ohio with the nam being an outlier still with over a foot in spots. Good consensus around 24hrs out for a decent snow event across much of Ohio. 

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2 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

All models sans the cmc (can't see euro) showing 6-8 across Central Ohio with the nam being an outlier still with over a foot in spots. Good consensus around 24hrs out for a decent snow event across much of Ohio. 

Interesting, what’s CMC have?

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11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

interesting that the placement of the heaviest snow area in Ohio is different on virtually every model.   They all seem to agree that the jackpot could be close to 10" but where that happens is like throwing a dart blindfolded at a map of Ohio.

WWA just hoisted. 2-4. Yippee. Can’t buy a WSW! 

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Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Is the NAM pretty good in this range ?

Always has a wet bias, but unusual in that since it originally nam'd us yesterday at 18z, it hasn't wavered.   Usually it starts to come back to reality a couple of runs after a nam'ing.

Sometimes the saying is take half of what the nam shows.   Still would be 6" here.

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8 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Perfect example about what I mentioned about the jackpot areas.  Nam is jackpotting area around Mansfield, northeast of us,  euro is jackpotting areas to our west, ggem to our south.  Still a lot of uncertainty on this.

Well it's still early but here is my first call. Will adjust tonight if necessary. Nervous seeing the nam give over half inch of zr underneath 15" of snow around Coshocton. The fact that the nam has stayed so consistent in this range is usually an indication of it being more reliable. So early guess. 

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1 hour ago, pondo1000 said:

I think it will probably start tomorrow night before midnight. Why not throw up a Watch 1st? Can always adjust from there.

That was my thought too when the WWA went up. I was thinking go watch first and get through the 0z runs then make a decision on WWA or warning.

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56 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Perfect example about what I mentioned about the jackpot areas.  Nam is jackpotting area around Mansfield, northeast of us,  euro is jackpotting areas to our west, ggem to our south.  Still a lot of uncertainty on this.

And rgem has it right over columbus

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Here's my first stab at this for OH...

The northern extent of the heavier snow depends on downstream influence, such as the lead shortwave that will bring the chance for a mix early Tuesday and the trough over SE Canada.  Some trend to lessen the trough and confluence over SE Canada which coincides with some increase on the northern end on the models today.  Still, with a lot of small pieces rotating around in the trough and only a brief window of negative tilt before the upper low closes off and starts moving ESE didn't go as aggressive as some models on the northern edge.  Suspect that gradient will be tighter than this, just not sure where exactly it sets up.  Could see anything from 0" to 4" in a place like CLE depending.  Went a bit low for NW OH too as the best lift appears to be south and east of there Tuesday evening. 

It appears a decent band of light to moderate snow breaks out late Tuesday afternoon/early evening from east-central OH central OH to southwest OH in the modest cold conveyer belt on the northern/western side of the broad low to mid-level circulation.  An area to watch for heavier snow will be in east-central Ohio, where higher theta-e air will be advecting in and where there's some agreement on a slow-moving area of mid-level fgen and convergence that could help squeeze out better rates.  NAM soundings have strong left in the DGZ in this corridor for several hours overnight Tuesday night into very early Wednesday.  Despite some disagreement on exact amounts and placement, most models hint at this area of heavier snow.  Didn't go as crazy as the 3km NAM, but with a potential ratio boost during the heaviest snow, potential for a few or several hours of moderate or better snow in any given spot with light snow on either side of that, and good agreement on easily over half an inch of QPF, think over 6" is a good bet where this better banding sets up.  Think anything more than 10" is a stretch as the dynamics/lift/moisture are all OK but not really great either. 

Another area to watch will be the broad area of deformation on the NW side of the low and mid-level circulation towards SW OH.  Less moisture and weaker fgen that farther east may cause the snow to be more light to mainly moderate so will stick with 3-6" for this area for now.  With favorable timing at night, good duration, and probably somewhat higher than 10:1 ratios once accumulations start occurring do think a few inches is a good bet for much of that corridor. 

South-central and SE OH will take longer to fall to near or below freezing and may be in a bit of a dry slot as they'll be closer to the mid-level low for several hours Tuesday night.  This area should still get a light accumulation late Tuesday night-early Weds AM as the system starts transferring to the coast and the deform zone and weak CCB collapse SE, bringing a period of mainly light snow.  With favorable timing at night/early in the day Weds think up to a couple inches could occur.  

The ice potential tomorrow morning is a bit concerning given what the NAM spits out, but with borderline surface temps, a short duration before 1) surface temps rise above freezing or 2) the mid-levels cool enough for sleet or snow, am hoping accretions aren't heavy. 

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2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Is the NAM pretty good in this range ?

When its right ;)  I think I mentioned to you at the beginning of the winter that 50 miles or so N of I-70 will make you nuts watching models.  Don't judge the area by 1 season, we've had some big dogs in the past.  Granted the last 4 or 5 years have sucked, haven't made it to 50% or so of the seasonal average.  The rubberband will snap eventually.  I'm with you and most of the board though, this 35-40, rain and wind in March just blows almost as much as brown and 10 below in January.   The nice thing about GA is yeah you might get a warning snow come through every now and then but the respite is some nice weeks in between climo wise.  Not gonna get that up here riding the line lol.  It is what it is, never know this time of year.  Could get a Gomer :pimp:   

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